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Definitely agree with the parts about Elon Musk and Larry Page not talking about AI anymore. My perception of OpenAI is that it's running on the fumes of Elon
by chubot 5y ago
Definitely agree with the parts about Elon Musk and Larry Page not talking about AI anymore.
My perception of OpenAI is that it's running on the fumes of Elon Musk circa 2015. It was launched in that year or so with a lot of hype, much of it due to Elon's name being attached. Then he lost interest, and it's been getting less and less ambitious as time goes on. That's the opposite of what you'd expect if they were on the path to AGI.
My (somewhat first hand) perception of self-driving cars is that the industry is running on the fumes of Larry Page circa 2006-2010. Larry attended DARPA self-driving challenges, and spun up a self-driving project at Google. Through incredible PR they managed to convince the entire auto industry to jump on board, investing tons of money for acquisitions like Cruise.
All self-driving projects have also been getting less ambitious over time. I noted a few years ago that in 2016 Chris Urmson already told people to adjust their expectations -- that it would take 25 years to roll out. Still in 2018 people were repeating claims that Page and Urmson made back in ~2010, and some are still doing that today.
- mitchdoogle 5y agoI thought self driving cars were already on the road in various parts of the country, doing test rides and all that.
- chubot 5y agoRelative to the expectations and predictions made in 2006, 2010, and 2015, it's a disappointment. Relative to what executives expected when they spent billions of dollars on it, following the lead of Google, it's a disappointment. The people who were talking about it back then like Larry Page, Sebastian Thrun, and Chris Urmson no longer really talk about it. If you only started paying attention to self driving cars in 2018 or so, it might be very exciting!