3 ms·

We don't even know why covid has a seasonality. Obviously it has a physical cause but the interplay of all factors is so complicated that no one can really expl

by NoPie 5y ago

We don't even know why covid has a seasonality. Obviously it has a physical cause but the interplay of all factors is so complicated that no one can really explain why peaks come and go, and at different times in each place.

kyrra 5y ago
Best guess I've seen on hit this has to do with how much time people are spending inside due to weather. See the screenshot of covid positivity rates at two different dates. https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1457438899580456968 https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1457438899580456... The screenshot is from the NYTimes covid tracker. The guess was that more people were inside in the south the summer when it was hot, and they were running air conditioning. Now that the South has more reasonable temperatures, people are spending more time outside. While the north is starting to get colder and people are spending more time inside. This also seems to apply to California which has relatively stable temperatures all year, so they haven't been hit by either spike yet. Though the part that doesn't fit in here is the northeast corridor is not being hit as hard. My only guess is they were the ones hit hardest when covid started, so maybe they won't get as big of a spike now.
- mdp2021 5y ago
  Not only that (rate of interaction spent outdoors), also an effect of UV was observed. Not massive but significant. I cannot find the original material that informed me, but I see there was a research effort last year, described at https://bren.ucsb.edu/news/seasonal-uv-light-exposure-affects-covid-19-spread https://bren.ucsb.edu/news/seasonal-uv-light-exposure-affect... > The authors then used a dataset of meteorological conditions with daily resolution ... analyz[ing] how four variables — UV radiation, temperature, humidity and precipitation — correlated with the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases ... [and] found evidence that a location’s UV exposure significantly affects COVID-19 transmission. A change in UV exposure by 1 standard deviation (roughly equal to the difference in UV between May and June in Los Angeles) reduced the growth rate of new cases by around 1 percentage point over the following two weeks and a more recent one, described at https://eos.org/research-spotlights/scientists-uncover-the-seasonality-of-covid-19 https://eos.org/research-spotlights/scientists-uncover-the-s... > The seasonal values of ultraviolet (UV) radiation and ADC, however, were consistent with fluctuations in COVID-19 prevalence across all five countries
  - skinkestek 5y ago
    > Not only that (rate of interaction spent outdoors), also an effect of UV was observed. Not massive but significant. Cool! Wonder if anyone has tried to figure out what part of that is related to the virus transmitting less efficiently in UV light (disinfecting effect) and what part is related to peoples skin producing vitamin D when exposed to sunlight? Personally I have tried the Norwegian cod liver oil (yuck) to get my necessary vitamin D.
- bluejekyll 5y ago
  In considering areas, are you including vaccination rates? https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-states/ https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-st... CA, OR, and WA have better rates than many places, and the North East is by far the most vaccinated area of the country.
  - kyrra 5y ago
    How about Vermont? Their 7day COVID rate is high (53 per 100k), and they are the highest vaccinated rate in the continental US. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?state=US https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/corona... For OR, I understand that they had a warm summer and spiked this summer already and are trending down now. https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/state/oregon https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spr...
    - bluejekyll 5y ago
      While it is disappointing that there are cases rising in those places, hospitalizations are remaining constant, which is a good sign. Hopefully it means that even if there are break through cases, it will continue to mean that fewer people are getting severe cases.
sjg007 5y ago
Covid is not seasonal and it does not have a seasonality.
- NoPie 5y ago
  Thanks, tell that to Gov. Newsom: https://old.reddit.com/r/LockdownSkepticism/comments/qr34sz/florida_center_of_covid_mandate_resistance_has/hk4br9i/ https://old.reddit.com/r/LockdownSkepticism/comments/qr34sz/...

by NoPie 5y ago

kyrra 5y ago

Best guess I've seen on hit this has to do with how much time people are spending inside due to weather. See the screenshot of covid positivity rates at two different dates. https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1457438899580456968 https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1457438899580456... The screenshot is from the NYTimes covid tracker. The guess was that more people were inside in the south the summer when it was hot, and they were running air conditioning. Now that the South has more reasonable temperatures, people are spending more time outside. While the north is starting to get colder and people are spending more time inside. This also seems to apply to California which has relatively stable temperatures all year, so they haven't been hit by either spike yet. Though the part that doesn't fit in here is the northeast corridor is not being hit as hard. My only guess is they were the ones hit hardest when covid started, so maybe they won't get as big of a spike now.

mdp2021 5y ago
Not only that (rate of interaction spent outdoors), also an effect of UV was observed. Not massive but significant. I cannot find the original material that informed me, but I see there was a research effort last year, described at https://bren.ucsb.edu/news/seasonal-uv-light-exposure-affects-covid-19-spread https://bren.ucsb.edu/news/seasonal-uv-light-exposure-affect... > The authors then used a dataset of meteorological conditions with daily resolution ... analyz[ing] how four variables — UV radiation, temperature, humidity and precipitation — correlated with the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases ... [and] found evidence that a location’s UV exposure significantly affects COVID-19 transmission. A change in UV exposure by 1 standard deviation (roughly equal to the difference in UV between May and June in Los Angeles) reduced the growth rate of new cases by around 1 percentage point over the following two weeks and a more recent one, described at https://eos.org/research-spotlights/scientists-uncover-the-seasonality-of-covid-19 https://eos.org/research-spotlights/scientists-uncover-the-s... > The seasonal values of ultraviolet (UV) radiation and ADC, however, were consistent with fluctuations in COVID-19 prevalence across all five countries
- skinkestek 5y ago
  > Not only that (rate of interaction spent outdoors), also an effect of UV was observed. Not massive but significant. Cool! Wonder if anyone has tried to figure out what part of that is related to the virus transmitting less efficiently in UV light (disinfecting effect) and what part is related to peoples skin producing vitamin D when exposed to sunlight? Personally I have tried the Norwegian cod liver oil (yuck) to get my necessary vitamin D.
bluejekyll 5y ago
In considering areas, are you including vaccination rates? https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-states/ https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-st... CA, OR, and WA have better rates than many places, and the North East is by far the most vaccinated area of the country.
- kyrra 5y ago
  How about Vermont? Their 7day COVID rate is high (53 per 100k), and they are the highest vaccinated rate in the continental US. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?state=US https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/corona... For OR, I understand that they had a warm summer and spiked this summer already and are trending down now. https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/state/oregon https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spr...
  - bluejekyll 5y ago
    While it is disappointing that there are cases rising in those places, hospitalizations are remaining constant, which is a good sign. Hopefully it means that even if there are break through cases, it will continue to mean that fewer people are getting severe cases.

sjg007 5y ago

Covid is not seasonal and it does not have a seasonality.

NoPie 5y ago
Thanks, tell that to Gov. Newsom: https://old.reddit.com/r/LockdownSkepticism/comments/qr34sz/florida_center_of_covid_mandate_resistance_has/hk4br9i/ https://old.reddit.com/r/LockdownSkepticism/comments/qr34sz/...