4 ms·

numbers: > Burton cited data from France on males ages 12 to 29. It showed there were 13.3 cases of myocarditis per 100,000 people for Moderna’s vaccine compar

by tomp 5y ago

numbers: > Burton cited data from France on males ages 12 to 29. It showed there were 13.3 cases of myocarditis per 100,000 people for Moderna’s vaccine compared with 2.7 cases per 100,000 people for the Pfizer vaccine. > there were 86 breakthrough cases per 100,000 people for the Moderna vaccine. That compares to 135 breakthrough cases per 100,000 for Pfizer’s, he said Are the differences meaningful? Assuming the data is real, Pfizer does seem quite a bit safer!

exegete 5y ago
It’s a good question. Is there a statistical test that can be / has been done with the data? Are the numbers between Pfizer and Moderna statistically different (and are they different than the incident rate in the general population)?
- contravariant 5y ago
  For things that happen with a small probability over lots of trials you can generally assume they're approximately Poisson distributed. Which on its own isn't too helpful but then you know that the standard deviation is equal to the square root of the average. In this case both values bracket 100 so the square root should be around 10 making this a difference of roughly 5 standard deviations. This isn't a Gaussian distribution so the 5-sigma limit used in physics can't be applied directly, but it's still a pretty big difference, especially for medical data. You could (and in some cases should) do the work to get a proper number for the significance but this back of the napkin estimate suggests it's a statistically meaningful difference. And this being a calculation that can be done at the top of one's head, it is useful when the news reports on a change in some statistic that isn't anywhere close to significant.
staticassertion 5y ago
I wouldn't draw that conclusion. That's a 50% increase in break through cases with Pfizer, which seems like a far greater threat than even a 5x increase of myocarditis. Especially when you take into account that your risk of developing myocarditis is higher if you get Covid.
- Mikeb85 5y ago
  For that age group it's not a risk at all though.
  - staticassertion 5y ago
    Covid increases your chances of myocarditis by an order of magnitude, so it seems obvious that the vaccine that prevents covid is the way to go.
    - Mikeb85 5y ago
      But the odds of getting Covid are far less than the odds of getting the vaccine. You have to compare the odds of getting the vaccine (100%) AND getting myocarditis with Moderna versus the odds of being exposed to Covid AND getting a breakthrough case with Pfizer AND getting myocarditis from said breakthrough case with Pfizer since the vaccine makes the symptoms of breakthrough cases milder anyway. The problem is that getting the vaccine is a 100% event, versus a far less than 100% event in scenario 2 (breakthrough Covid case with Pfizer that causes myocarditis in that age group specifically). Add up ALL the maths. Edit - this isn't a vaccine versus no vaccine comparison. This is vaccine versus vaccine. Pfizer (in the current recommended dose) has proven very effective AND safer. Also, what percentage of breakthrough cases with Pfizer have resulted in myocarditis? Maybe that particular stat changes the risk profile. I'm guessing it's low though. Edit 2 - also maybe the risks of Moderna can simply be reduced by reducing the dosage. Who knows. More testing will occur over time I'm sure.
      - eitland 5y ago
        > But the odds of getting Covid are far less than the odds of getting the vaccine. At this point my conclusion is that everyone either get - the vaccine, - the vaccine and covid - or covid without the vaccine - or just covid within the next couple of years unless they live outside of society. I see no way an ordinary unvaccinated person can avoid catching covid now except using extremely much more invasive countermeasures than the vaccine. But I might have missed something. How do you suggest people avoid it? (Just theoretical interest. I took the vaccine as soon as it was clear that those charge took it themselves ;-)
credit_guy 5y ago
It's difficult to judge the tradeoff between Covid and myocarditis. I got my Moderna booster shot about 2 weeks ago, and I felt palpitations next day. Was that myocarditis. Maybe. I guess I'll never know. Did it bother me? Very little. I'm quite happy that my immunity to Covid went up. I'll personally trade a few palpitations for good Covid immunity. But that's just a case of 1. How severe is the myocarditis other people experience? According to a study I just googled [1], out of 2 million people, only 32 were hospitalized with myocarditis or pericarditis, with median hospitalization time of 1 to 2 days, no ICU, and no deaths. Doesn't sound so bad to me. [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782900 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782900
- cmoscoso 5y ago
  Do you prefer a heart attack to getting the flu???

by tomp 5y ago

exegete 5y ago

It’s a good question. Is there a statistical test that can be / has been done with the data? Are the numbers between Pfizer and Moderna statistically different (and are they different than the incident rate in the general population)?

contravariant 5y ago
For things that happen with a small probability over lots of trials you can generally assume they're approximately Poisson distributed. Which on its own isn't too helpful but then you know that the standard deviation is equal to the square root of the average. In this case both values bracket 100 so the square root should be around 10 making this a difference of roughly 5 standard deviations. This isn't a Gaussian distribution so the 5-sigma limit used in physics can't be applied directly, but it's still a pretty big difference, especially for medical data. You could (and in some cases should) do the work to get a proper number for the significance but this back of the napkin estimate suggests it's a statistically meaningful difference. And this being a calculation that can be done at the top of one's head, it is useful when the news reports on a change in some statistic that isn't anywhere close to significant.

staticassertion 5y ago

I wouldn't draw that conclusion. That's a 50% increase in break through cases with Pfizer, which seems like a far greater threat than even a 5x increase of myocarditis. Especially when you take into account that your risk of developing myocarditis is higher if you get Covid.

Mikeb85 5y ago
For that age group it's not a risk at all though.
- staticassertion 5y ago
  Covid increases your chances of myocarditis by an order of magnitude, so it seems obvious that the vaccine that prevents covid is the way to go.
  - Mikeb85 5y ago
    But the odds of getting Covid are far less than the odds of getting the vaccine. You have to compare the odds of getting the vaccine (100%) AND getting myocarditis with Moderna versus the odds of being exposed to Covid AND getting a breakthrough case with Pfizer AND getting myocarditis from said breakthrough case with Pfizer since the vaccine makes the symptoms of breakthrough cases milder anyway. The problem is that getting the vaccine is a 100% event, versus a far less than 100% event in scenario 2 (breakthrough Covid case with Pfizer that causes myocarditis in that age group specifically). Add up ALL the maths. Edit - this isn't a vaccine versus no vaccine comparison. This is vaccine versus vaccine. Pfizer (in the current recommended dose) has proven very effective AND safer. Also, what percentage of breakthrough cases with Pfizer have resulted in myocarditis? Maybe that particular stat changes the risk profile. I'm guessing it's low though. Edit 2 - also maybe the risks of Moderna can simply be reduced by reducing the dosage. Who knows. More testing will occur over time I'm sure.
    - eitland 5y ago
      > But the odds of getting Covid are far less than the odds of getting the vaccine. At this point my conclusion is that everyone either get - the vaccine, - the vaccine and covid - or covid without the vaccine - or just covid within the next couple of years unless they live outside of society. I see no way an ordinary unvaccinated person can avoid catching covid now except using extremely much more invasive countermeasures than the vaccine. But I might have missed something. How do you suggest people avoid it? (Just theoretical interest. I took the vaccine as soon as it was clear that those charge took it themselves ;-)

credit_guy 5y ago

It's difficult to judge the tradeoff between Covid and myocarditis. I got my Moderna booster shot about 2 weeks ago, and I felt palpitations next day. Was that myocarditis. Maybe. I guess I'll never know. Did it bother me? Very little. I'm quite happy that my immunity to Covid went up. I'll personally trade a few palpitations for good Covid immunity. But that's just a case of 1. How severe is the myocarditis other people experience? According to a study I just googled [1], out of 2 million people, only 32 were hospitalized with myocarditis or pericarditis, with median hospitalization time of 1 to 2 days, no ICU, and no deaths. Doesn't sound so bad to me. [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782900 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2782900

cmoscoso 5y ago
Do you prefer a heart attack to getting the flu???