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Yes, my argument was that, because the second stage would be mechanically so hard to build, driving the cost of the whole installation up, it's unlikely they ca

by yholio 5y ago

Yes, my argument was that, because the second stage would be mechanically so hard to build, driving the cost of the whole installation up, it's unlikely they can offer launch services at a price point low enough to make satellite customers and manufacturers willing to invest in high-G satellites. I will change my mind when they offer payload to orbit at a price no more than half of what SpaceX can do. Currently, they launch 51 Starlink satellites of 260Kg at a price point of $50 milion, or about $4000/Kg. Any competitor looking to deploy a high-G constellation will need much better prices, less than $500K per 260Kg satellite, and Starship is on course to slash another zero from that.

simonh 5y ago
They already have a design, so it seems like at least they think they have the engineering problems figured out. This test rig should allow them to verify that. They might well be able to compete based on differentiating factors other than cost, such as availability. Small sats riding on an F9 are generally on ride-share programs and can have to wait years for a slot. Unless you're commissioning a whole F9, you take what you can get. With this thing they can throw up a single small satellite whenever you like, and pretty much as many or as few as you like. Price may well be comparable to reusable F9, after all this thing puts the "upper stage" to about the same altitude as an F9 second stage, and as with this the F9 second stage isn't reusable. Also the "first stage" of this thing is a catapult that's functionally infinitely reusable, whereas F9 first stages have only racked up a maximum of 10 launches so far. This catapult should theoretically manage thousands of launches. Starship is a real game changer for sure, but we'll have to see how that pans out. It's still a long way from being a functioning service doing daily launches.

by yholio 5y ago

simonh 5y ago

They already have a design, so it seems like at least they think they have the engineering problems figured out. This test rig should allow them to verify that. They might well be able to compete based on differentiating factors other than cost, such as availability. Small sats riding on an F9 are generally on ride-share programs and can have to wait years for a slot. Unless you're commissioning a whole F9, you take what you can get. With this thing they can throw up a single small satellite whenever you like, and pretty much as many or as few as you like. Price may well be comparable to reusable F9, after all this thing puts the "upper stage" to about the same altitude as an F9 second stage, and as with this the F9 second stage isn't reusable. Also the "first stage" of this thing is a catapult that's functionally infinitely reusable, whereas F9 first stages have only racked up a maximum of 10 launches so far. This catapult should theoretically manage thousands of launches. Starship is a real game changer for sure, but we'll have to see how that pans out. It's still a long way from being a functioning service doing daily launches.