3 ms·

There are Starbucks in Italy and the UK is not doing fine at all.

jollybean 5y ago
1) Starbucks opened their first store in Italy 2018 - fully 20 years after expansion into other major markets, precisely because they have a very hard time there relative to other markets. Starbucks existential difficulty expanding into Italy is not 'disproven' by the fact there are very few stores there, just the opposite, it is evidence for my position. 2) The UK is doing quite fine [1][2] Almost all UK numbers remained consistent through the lead up to Brexit hysteria (pre-COVID), nothing really changed even as Brexit was imminent and businesses adjusted. UK 2020 numbers were a bit worse than average, of course, it was a disastrous year for everyone due to COVID - more importantly, the UK was actually much more accurate in economic reporting for public sectors services as the Home Office reports decline in activity (for example students not being taught) as a decline in GDP, whereas Continental nations declared simply gov. expenditures (i.e. 'teachers being paid', irrespective of classes being taught). Because teachers and other public servants were still paid in Germany, they didn't reduce the effective GDP declaration, even if they were not doing anything. So the 2020 numbers are not hugely comparable anyhow. But by 2021, the numbers are already looking pretty good, and you can see by the charts (and others) that there is no hugely deviation from historical performance due to Brexit, although it's too early to tell for sure. The OECD is not a 'pro Brexit' organization and their projections for 2021 and 2022 are fairly consistently positive and better than almost all of Europe. The UK does 'a bit better than most' of the EU (some areas worse than others) in much the same way that it did before. In particular, the UK still has an unemployment rate 1/2 that of France, and slightly lower than Germany. Political antagonists (in and out of government) still lament their fears, and make bold claims about '30 year projections' etc. but much of this is misrepresented, exaggerated, and difficult to fathom given the multi-decade durations necessary in order for them to demonstrate the 'cumulative loss' from Brexit. And of course, they don't account for other opportunities. There will be more COVID and post-Brexit adjustments, but the numbers have been coming in, and the evidence is that: A) 'Brexit Hysteria' was completely overstated, B) Basic economic participation (i.e. trade) with the EU is 95% of the story and everything else is mostly hot air. After a couple more years of this, the results will be even more clear: the EU doesn't matter, only the 'EEC' (i.e. trade) part of it is relevant. Nations can exit the union, trade with it, issue debt in their own currencies, regain monetary policy and competitiveness and get along just fine, possibly better than they did before. [1] https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/210923-economic-outlook-europe-q4-2021-a-faster-than-expected-liftoff-12118431 https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/210923... [2] https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/global-economic-recovery-continues-but-remains-uneven-says-oecd.htm https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/global-economic-recovery-conti...

1) Starbucks opened their first store in Italy 2018 - fully 20 years after expansion into other major markets, precisely because they have a very hard time there relative to other markets. Starbucks existential difficulty expanding into Italy is not 'disproven' by the fact there are very few stores there, just the opposite, it is evidence for my position. 2) The UK is doing quite fine [1][2] Almost all UK numbers remained consistent through the lead up to Brexit hysteria (pre-COVID), nothing really changed even as Brexit was imminent and businesses adjusted. UK 2020 numbers were a bit worse than average, of course, it was a disastrous year for everyone due to COVID - more importantly, the UK was actually much more accurate in economic reporting for public sectors services as the Home Office reports decline in activity (for example students not being taught) as a decline in GDP, whereas Continental nations declared simply gov. expenditures (i.e. 'teachers being paid', irrespective of classes being taught). Because teachers and other public servants were still paid in Germany, they didn't reduce the effective GDP declaration, even if they were not doing anything. So the 2020 numbers are not hugely comparable anyhow. But by 2021, the numbers are already looking pretty good, and you can see by the charts (and others) that there is no hugely deviation from historical performance due to Brexit, although it's too early to tell for sure. The OECD is not a 'pro Brexit' organization and their projections for 2021 and 2022 are fairly consistently positive and better than almost all of Europe. The UK does 'a bit better than most' of the EU (some areas worse than others) in much the same way that it did before. In particular, the UK still has an unemployment rate 1/2 that of France, and slightly lower than Germany. Political antagonists (in and out of government) still lament their fears, and make bold claims about '30 year projections' etc. but much of this is misrepresented, exaggerated, and difficult to fathom given the multi-decade durations necessary in order for them to demonstrate the 'cumulative loss' from Brexit. And of course, they don't account for other opportunities. There will be more COVID and post-Brexit adjustments, but the numbers have been coming in, and the evidence is that: A) 'Brexit Hysteria' was completely overstated, B) Basic economic participation (i.e. trade) with the EU is 95% of the story and everything else is mostly hot air. After a couple more years of this, the results will be even more clear: the EU doesn't matter, only the 'EEC' (i.e. trade) part of it is relevant. Nations can exit the union, trade with it, issue debt in their own currencies, regain monetary policy and competitiveness and get along just fine, possibly better than they did before. [1] https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/210923-economic-outlook-europe-q4-2021-a-faster-than-expected-liftoff-12118431 https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/210923... [2] https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/global-economic-recovery-continues-but-remains-uneven-says-oecd.htm https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/global-economic-recovery-conti...