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My new mental model to understand high PE, high speculative stocks and crypto is attempt to understand and quantify the actual amount of active floated shares i
by somethoughts 5y ago
My new mental model to understand high PE, high speculative stocks and crypto is attempt to understand and quantify the actual amount of active floated shares in circulation that are being actively traded/exchanged daily.
If founders and early investors are mostly HODLing the majority of shares then the actual active shares in circulation can be quite low. Basically a bunch of retail traders are trading at the periphery and perhaps overpaying. The overpayment by retail traders is then applied to the entire lot of outstanding shares.
Ideally there'd be a way to see the number of unique shares trading hands. Currently the only publicly/freely available info is about the number of shares traded per day - but this could really just be the same shares being traded over an over.
True price discovery is not occurring across the entire lot of outstanding shares. True valuation of Tesla will only be possible once the founders own less than 1% of outstanding shares. For example Tim Cook as the current steward of Apple leadership and Laurene Powell Jobs only own about 0.02% and 0.8% of Apple as compared to Elon Musk who owns about 15-20% (its dropping daily of course).