4 ms·
No you do want it, but not to buy and hold for months at a time, you should buy and hold for a few days and then get out after it peaks. You also want SOXL, FAS
by sabujp 5y ago
No you do want it, but not to buy and hold for months at a time, you should buy and hold for a few days and then get out after it peaks. You also want SOXL, FAS, UPRO/SPXL, URTY/UWM and TMF and want to operate on these the same way. The key is to know when to buy and sell these. The easiest is to use Price Headley's acceleration or Bollinger bands. Buy when the price falls out of the band, wait for a green candle on the daily and go in big, the next day might be red but you will be positive after a day or two. Sell when it hits the top of the band and there's a red candle.
- elil17 5y agoTrying to time the market is all or at least mostly luck and adds a lot of risk.
- rthomas6 5y agoAfter reading A Random Walk on Wall Street I have no faith in technical analysis. Do you have any broad empirical data that backs up these claims?
- georgyo 5y agoIf such a simple algorithm worked reliably then you would not want to advertise it because then it would not work any more.
- syspec 5y agoTwo economists are walking down the street and seeing a $20 bill lying on the sidewalk. The first economist says, "Look at that $20 bill." The second says, "That can't really be a $20 bill lying there, because if it were, someone would have picked it up already."
- elil17 5y agoIf the street was crowded with PHD money finders, the economists might be wise to assume that it’s a fake bill.
- fiestaman 5y agoThe first scoffs and reaches down to grab the bill, but can only watch in dismay as the kids around the corner reel it back on fishing wire.
- SantalBlush 5y agoThey would be right to find the $20 bill suspicious. Arbitrage exists in the real world, but it doesn't last long.
- PascLeRasc 5y agoHolding cash? I don’t think so.
- sabujp 5y agoactually the opposite is true, I do want to advertise it so that "savy" traders follow a predictable pattern making the market move in the same predictable way. People who just buy and hold will continue to provide a floor. What I basically described is a way to buy low and sell high since the majority of technical indicators are based off of moving averages.
- hungryforcodes 5y agoWhat you're describing is just a basic Bollinger Band strategy. Everyone and their cat IS already using it. It seems to work fine despite this.
- m3kw9 5y agoThat’s awesome, I didn’t know it was so easy to make money, you must be the first to find out about this secret algorithm and the fastest person to execute it
- sabujp 5y agoIndeed, I really don't understand why people buy and hold unless their retirement plan forces them to. I've been using this same algorithm since 2004, how about you?
- rthomas6 5y agoWhat percentage gain did you see since 2004?
- sabujp 5y agoat least 15-30% per year
- NicoJuicy 5y agoI've been doing stock without ta and got 100% / year. While I only started in 2017 ( and crypto got me 3 years worth of doubling in 6 months). I wouldn't change my strategy for 1/3rd and watching daily. I also get out when I think it's the wrong moment. Eg. I only vested 30% now ( at least until end of December). And no, i don't do crypto anymore, got out at 18 k around end of 2017.
- bryanlarsen 5y agoWhy are you bragging about your strategy then? The headline says that you could have got about 2-4x your return by buying and holding TQQQ.
- sabujp 5y agobuying and holding TQQQ requires some intestinal fortitude I don't have, I'd rather take a few days worth of an upswing and be happy with that. Trading is all about risk management
- nuclearnice3 5y agoWhat's a red candle on the daily?
- sabujp 5y agoa red candle on a daily chart, usually at the top of the accleration band but can be in the middle, bottom, etc indicating that there's more selling than buying volume during the day and that the current price has gone below the opening price, by end of day that it closed lower than the open. Knowing how to read various types of candlesticks is also key as they indicate whether bulls or bears are in control.
- nuclearnice3 5y agoso red candle, top of acceleration - sell. green candle, bottom of acceleration - buy. anything for other combinations, say, green at top of acceleration?
- sabujp 5y agoDepends on how big the green candle (also what kind of green candle it is, e.g. shooting star, hammer, etc?) is and how far above the acceleration band it has gone. For example if there's a red candle on the previous day and you're at or slightly above the top of the acceleration band, but the next day there's a green candle that exceeds the previous (red candle) day's high, then there's a good probability that the price will continue to go up the next day. For example this just happened with Micron stock (MU) on 11/11 and I bought in that day for a nice gain on 11/12. You also want to look at how far above the long term moving averages you are. I use fibonacci moving averages, e.g. 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, etc all the way up to 2584. One of the key MAs is the 233 day, if you inspect lots of charts you'll see bullish stocks pull back from their all time highs to the 21, 55, and 89, and 233 day MAs, and bounce off those to either continue higher or at least to go up for a while until you see a slow down in the acceleration of the price or a red candle in the middle or top of the accleration band (in which case you should sell). I use other indicators too on tradingview.com, Ichimoku cloud, wavetrend by lazy bear, chris moody's stochastic mtf, autofib.
- xhrpost 5y agoI've been considering something similar but routinely pulling the gains into something more stable like TLT/TIP/NUSI and rebalancing within certain limits.