6 ms·
This is a fantastic post. It is well written, and I agree with many of the authors points. Far from being angry, I think that the majority of people reading her
by Spyro7 15y ago
This is a fantastic post. It is well written, and I agree with many of the authors points. Far from being angry, I think that the majority of people reading here on HN actually appreciate this type of critical analysis, and I think that it is a shame that it had to be posted on a throwaway account. However, I would like to present some alternative viewpoints for a few of the issues brought up in this post.
"As a doctor, however, someone like this - a top professional at the peak of their career - would probably make about $400,000. Partners at big law firms commonly net a million a year. Investment bankers are making several million (post-crash!). Top management consultants easily clear $500,000. Even a top accountant - probably a partner at a big 4 firm - would make two, three, or four times as much."
Hold on a second. What is the point that you are trying to make in this post. You say that you are talking about comparing computer programmers as compared to other highly skilled professionals, but then you narrow your focus to the highest percentile in each category. How many lawyers are partners in a big law firm out of the total number of lawyers? How many of these top management consultants clear $500,000?
The top performers in every industry will always make a salary that is amazingly higher than the median. However, unless you know the exact distributions of the salaries in each industry you can not meaningfully compare top performers. What good is it to know that a certain lawyer makes a million dollars a year without knowing how probable that outcome is relative to some more dreary alternatives.
When I started reading your post, I started reading it with the expectation that you were talking about the general market for programmers. Then about halfway through, it seemed to me that you had switched to talking about the very highest performers in the highly skilled labor market. Well, if that is what we are going to be talking about, then we should focus on it.
Look, the highest performers in the computer programming field are no longer called computer programmers. They are called CEOs and there is a high likelihood that they are very, very well compensated relative to the best performers in many other industries. However, as I said earlier, it is pointless to throw around anecdotes about how this 99.999th percentile individual made millions or this one made billions.
So, let's get back down to earth, and try to find some passably good numbers (not perfect, but better than nothing) to use as comparison points. Let's look at some numbers that may be more relevant with what someone around the 50th percentile would experience. All of the following links display ranges for salaries in each field. No, they are not the best samples available, but they are better than going without any data whatsoever.
Note: As stated on the site - all compensation data shown are gross, national from the 10th to 90th percentile ranges.
Physicians: http://www.payscale.com/research/US/People_with_Jobs_as_Physicians_%2f_Doctors/Salary/by_Years_Experience http://www.payscale.com/research/US/People_with_Jobs_as_Phys...
Note: Physicians must have several years of residency as well as an M.D, so a programmer would already have 5 to 9 years of experience compared to a physician that is just beginning.
Lawyers: http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=Attorney_%2f_Lawyer/Salary/by_Years_Experience http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=Attorney_%2f_Lawyer/...
Lawyers in the states typically need a J.D. before they can actually begin being a lawyer, and law school is very expensive. I should also note, that the gravy train is slowing down dramatically for lawyers - http://www.economist.com/node/18651114 http://www.economist.com/node/18651114
Software Engineers: http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=Software_Engineer_%2f_Developer_%2f_Programmer/Salary/by_Years_Experience http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=Software_Engineer_%2...
Sr. Software Engineers: http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=Sr._Software_Engineer_%2f_Developer_%2f_Programmer/Salary/by_Years_Experience http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=Sr._Software_Enginee...
Sr. Business Analyst: http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=Sr._Business_Analyst_(Computer_Software%2fHardware%2fSystems)/Salary http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=Sr._Business_Analyst...
System Admins: http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=System_Administrator%2c_Computer_%2f_Network/Salary/by_Years_Experience http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=System_Administrator...
Computer Programmers: http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=Computer_Programmer/Salary/by_Years_Experience http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=Computer_Programmer/...
Management Consultants: http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=Management_Consultant/Salary/by_Years_Experience http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=Management_Consultan...
Investment Banking: http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=Associate_-_Investment_Banking/Salary/by_Years_Experience http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=Associate_-_Investme...
Accountants: http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=Accountant/Salary/by_Years_Experience http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=Accountant/Salary/by...
Sr. Accountant (numbers look a little screwy here): http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=Senior_Accountant/Salary/by_Years_Experience http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=Senior_Accountant/Sa...
Looking at those numbers, it does not seem to me that there is anything particularly wrong with computer programming as compared to other highly skilled professions. As a matter of fact, given that one can become a programmer without needing additional certification, it seems to me, at least, that computer programming is a great field to be in.
"What \"programmers can get rich in startups\" really means is \"entrepreneurs can get rich in startups\", whether they're programmers or bricklayers."
What is the percentage of bricklayers that get rich creating a startup? I don't have the number offhand, but I do know that there is no "Silicon Valley equivalent" for bricklayers. If there was really that vibrant of a bricklayer startup industry, then, due to agglomeration, you would expect there to be at least a few geographical areas where there was a high concentration of bricklaying startup business being conducted (think something like Wall Street).
"I think it isn't. I think the country would be better off if MIT computer science students, like their neighbors at Harvard Law School, could dream of growing up to be President. And I think we'd all be better of if computer science wasn't just seen as a major for socially awkward nerds."
I agree completely, and, actually, I agree with many of your other points as well. That's the thing though, when you are talking about programmer respect it seemed as though confused several different "types" of respect - compensation, entrepreneurship, political pull. With regards to the first type of respect (compensation), I disagree with you because the data for compensation suggests that an alternative hypothesis may be true. With regards to the second type (entrepreneurship), I cannot definitively definitively say either way but neither can you because the data needed to compare the numbers of successful entrepreneurs in different industries does not seem to be readily available.
With regards to the third type (political pull), I agree with you, but I think that perhaps their are deeper things. I have some hypothesis:
1. Perhaps the skills that it takes to do well in politics in the U.S. are somewhat orthogonal to the skills that it takes to build a multi-million dollar software firm from nothing and run it? How could an engineer win an election where the campaigning generally consists of 5 second soundbites and smear campaigns?
2. Maybe the problem is the general youth of the industry. The software industry is in its infancy. Maybe, over time, as it grows deeper roots, it will acquire more political power and influence? This is a fairly likely hypothesis.
Finally, I would like to address one last point:
"When the government wants to bring in more workers from overseas - which obviously lowers salaries, and reduces job security - who do they bring in?"
The problem is actually not so obvious:
* Are the programmers entering the country working in the same exact fields and at the same levels of expertise as the programmers that are local? If this is not the case, then the impact on pre-existing salaries would be negligible.
* Are the programmers entering the country located in similar geographical areas to the programmers that are local? If this is not the case, then, again, you are not likely to see much of an impact.
* Do the programmers entering the country require additional training as compared to local programmers? If this is the case, then they would have lower compensation not because they are willing to work for less but because they are being compensated in the form of additional training.
* Is the industry rapidly growing? If this is the case, then it may be conceivable that existing programmers and programmers entering the country would both benefit as the growing industry has room for them both.
* Of course, one can always increase pay through artificial scarcity, but the problem with doing this is that it ends up costing society by resulting in a deadweight loss - consumer and producer benefits that are never obtained due to artificially high market prices.
* There are quite a few other things, but this post is now more than long enough, and I really need to get back to work.
- thomasgerbe 15y agoFunnily enough, many political representatives in China are engineers.
- 16s 15y agoIndia too. "If you are not an engineer, you are nothing" I was told that by a friend from India once.
- kubrickslair 15y agoI don't want to come off as arrogant but I should say this. People generally do not select engineering as a profession in India- it's one of the default professions for most of the middle class. I have been involved with computers since I was 6, so for me it was a pure choice. But most of my friends, some of them working for big name SV places don't really love or care about software or technology. In fact, some of them actively hate their jobs. Unlike in America, where people actually go to computer science because they love it. In India it's just the default way for a better life.
- tejaswiy 15y ago+1. I would hate to classify any Indian politician as an engineer. More like chose the easiest career path to get a decent amount of respect + a degree and moved into politics. Influence can buy you grades and admissions in India :/
- ra 15y agoCould that be because they don't have to win a media driven popularity contest to 'win' office?
- hack_edu 15y agoOr that they have thousands of years of history where civil servitude is a scholastic meritocracy.
- 15y ago