I didn't read the book, but at least in this article/interview they use too many[1] qualitative descriptors like "quite rare", "incredibly vast", "too far", "a

I didn't read the book, but at least in this article/interview they use too many[1] qualitative descriptors like "quite rare", "incredibly vast", "too far", "a lot longer", "long before", "very big", and "almost entirely empty". The quantities involved are not intuitive, you need to run a calculator to figure out the probability. The Grabby Aliens hypothesis [2] [3] is a recent publication by Robin Hanson (originator of the descriptor "The Great Filter" in the Fermi Paradox) which describes these times and distances mathematically. In short, either the model and its assumptions are flawed, or we're really, really early as far as intelligent spacefaring alien species go. We're here about 13.8 billion years after the Big Bang, and the solar system about 4.6 billion years old. That's nothing in terms of spacetime! Expanding at 0.1c (note, this all assumes non-faster-than-light travel) we could recolor the spectrum of the Milky Way in 1 million years, Andromeda in 25 million years, and the entire local group in 50 million years. None of those galaxies are 'just too far away'. [1]: 9, by my count, and only 1 quantitative descriptor - 2.5 billion years. [2]: https://grabbyaliens.com/ https://grabbyaliens.com/ [3]: A nice video summary - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LceY7nhi6j4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LceY7nhi6j4