Right, on first glance "we really might be first" looks like a poor hypothesis -- it's inconsistent with the mediocrity principle, it plays into dangerous self-

Right, on first glance "we really might be first" looks like a poor hypothesis -- it's inconsistent with the mediocrity principle, it plays into dangerous self-centered cognitive biases -- but it's actually one of the better Fermi paradox solutions. If I had to bet, I'd bet that we were first, and that it happened due to an early filter. I can hear a crowd of doomers grabbing their pitchforks and torches, screaming "late filter, late filter," but I don't buy it. There are many plausible apocalypse scenarios that would wipe out most of humanity and make life miserable for a long time -- but finishing the job is a very different thing, and you have to reach deep into the scenario bag to find an apocalypse that actually does the trick. In contrast, there are a bunch of cellular biology innovations that sound magnificently tricky to evolve. Cellular membranes and the eukaryotic transition are two that stand out, but who knows. Point is: I find the "early filter" hypotheses easy to believe, and not just because they wind up being good news in the end.