5 ms·

John has existed for about a third of the time since the industrial revolution. This doesn’t leave much room for people who have earned more money, especially i

by harles 5y ago

John has existed for about a third of the time since the industrial revolution. This doesn’t leave much room for people who have earned more money, especially if it turns out John was an especially fast earner. Therefore, we shouldn’t expect to find billionaires yet.

tsimionescu 5y ago
What I pointed out is not some iron-clad argument that it's impossible for there to be galactic empires or that people with reasonable assumptions can't be surprised that the universe isn't teaming with life. My point was that it's also not unreasonable to not be surprised. After all, we know for sure that, even if the universe is eventually full of life, there must still exist at least one species with our experience - looking out and seeing no one else. That one species guaranteed to have this experience is of course the first one that starts colonizing. To be clear again, I'm not claiming that we are for sure the first ones - there are many other reasonable explanations, but I believe this one is too.
- harles 5y ago
  There’s a lot to unpack there and I think it’s missing the point that extreme outliers exist but we shouldn’t expect ourselves to be one. It’s akin to saying some people win the lottery therefore it’s unsurprising if we do. Yes, some civilization will be first. The odds of it being us are astronomically low based on time and # of planetary systems. Given that it’s exponential growth, it’ll likely either never start or quickly explode. If a capable species came even 0.01% before us, we’d expect to see them. If a species came after us but had even a slightly faster growth rate, we’d expect to see them. The Fermi paradox is puzzling because time is on the side of galaxy colonizing civilizations, not against it. There are many possible explanations to the Fermi paradox, but “we’re the first” is extremely naive.

by harles 5y ago

tsimionescu 5y ago

What I pointed out is not some iron-clad argument that it's impossible for there to be galactic empires or that people with reasonable assumptions can't be surprised that the universe isn't teaming with life. My point was that it's also not unreasonable to not be surprised. After all, we know for sure that, even if the universe is eventually full of life, there must still exist at least one species with our experience - looking out and seeing no one else. That one species guaranteed to have this experience is of course the first one that starts colonizing. To be clear again, I'm not claiming that we are for sure the first ones - there are many other reasonable explanations, but I believe this one is too.

harles 5y ago
There’s a lot to unpack there and I think it’s missing the point that extreme outliers exist but we shouldn’t expect ourselves to be one. It’s akin to saying some people win the lottery therefore it’s unsurprising if we do. Yes, some civilization will be first. The odds of it being us are astronomically low based on time and # of planetary systems. Given that it’s exponential growth, it’ll likely either never start or quickly explode. If a capable species came even 0.01% before us, we’d expect to see them. If a species came after us but had even a slightly faster growth rate, we’d expect to see them. The Fermi paradox is puzzling because time is on the side of galaxy colonizing civilizations, not against it. There are many possible explanations to the Fermi paradox, but “we’re the first” is extremely naive.