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The opening paragraph, describes very well what I think would happen in Catalonia the day after a hypothetical independence, at least one achieved in the way th
by pqs 5y ago
The opening paragraph, describes very well what I think would happen in Catalonia the day after a hypothetical independence, at least one achieved in the way the pro-independence movement wanted to achieve it (with extreme polarization of the Catalan society and antagonization of the different sectors of society that did not support the so-called Process).
"On December 6th 1917 the Grand Duchy of Finland declared independence, becoming the first nation to independently secede from the corpse of the Russian Empire and the embryo that was to become the Soviet Union. Just fifty-three days later on the night of January 27th 1918, Finland erupted into a brutal civil war. Two opposing movements had polarized the Finnish people to the breaking point. For the next three and a half months, the Finnish people tore their nation apart in a conflict that would claim the lives of 36,000 people, out of a total population of just 3 million"
The pro-independence factions are also very divided, even though they always achieve to form a coalition to govern the region. Thus, the tension would be fractal.
p.s. I live in Catalonia and lived the 2017 events with more fear of the aftermath of the events, than the events themselves.
- rightbyte 5y agoFinland had a contingent of Russian troops at the time many of which refusing to turn over weapons and later fighting for the Red side. Are you talking about Catolonia seceding {edit: not conceding} without the king of Spain allowing it? Otherwise there is no standing army to make a mess.
- pqs 5y agoWe are in 2021, so it would be a very different kind of conflict. I definitely see terrorism, house by house arrests, some urban guerrillas or self-defense units that protect neighborhoods, etc. I'm not sure if I fully understand "Catolonia conceding without the king of Spain allowing it". What do you exactly mean?
- drcongo 5y agoAt a guess, I think the parent means seceding rather than conceding.
- rightbyte 5y agoOh ye wrong word, thank you.
- Swizec 5y ago> I definitely see terrorism, house by house arrests, some urban guerrillas or self-defense units that protect neighborhoods, etc. This is exactly how the Yugoslavian red vs. white civil war played out during WW2 while also fighting off the overall nazi invasion. The whites (collaborators) literally started as The Neighborhood Watch protecting citizens from partisan raids (the communists). For normal people it was a bit like this: You’re trying to survive the war in occupied territory. A mere civilian trying to make ends meet. One day the reds come and beat you up for not fighting with them, you’re obviously against the cause. The next day the whites come beat you up a little more because you’re not with them, you’re obviously a communist. Fun times.
- pqs 5y agoYes, I was talking about a unilateral independence.
- spurgu 5y agoSomething I've wondered, how would Catalonia feel about independence if it was neighbouring Morocco instead of France?
- rendall 5y agoWhat a curious and intriguing thing to always wonder! Why Morocco? What do you think the difference would be?
- spurgu 5y agoWell, it's coming from the perspective of having lived in the Canaries and becoming aware of the fact that Morocco isn't necessarily the nicest neighbour to have. There are lots of border issues which would be exacerbated if the Canaries weren't a part of Spain (which is able to strongarm Morocco in ways the Canaries alone couldn't). So while Canarians do have their own strong culture they still prefer to be a part of Spain. Of course there are other reasons as well, but was wondering how much the perception of needing geographical protection and resources (of a larger more powerful country) plays into the equation. France (or Spain) would hardly be considered a threatening neighbour. And then based on the answer I suppose I could better gauge how strong the will/determination to be independent actually is.
- rendall 5y agoI see! I wondered if Finland would want independence in similar circumstances, and I think yes, and would make Morocco badly regret any kind of incursion, just as they did the Soviets. I see the same spirit in Catalonia, and Catalonia has half again over (7.5M) the population of Finland (~5M). So... yes? But if they were in the situation of the Canaries - 2.1M pop, geographically isolated - it might be wiser not to be independent.
- lixtra 5y agoPr it could have gone all peacefully like Czechoslovakia split in two.
- pqs 5y agoMaybe. The point is that you don't know. Is the risk worthwhile?