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The calculations don't take into account growing energy usage. But anyone who understands exponential growth already knew that from looking at the title. EDIT:

The calculations don't take into account growing energy usage. But anyone who understands exponential growth already knew that from looking at the title. EDIT: Title on the article is currently 'Nuclear fuel will last us for 4 billion years'. I recall that that was also the HN title when I wrote this comment, but I could have got mixed up.

nine_k 5y ago
No form of exponential growth is sustainable; another name for it is "explosion". In practice, most things that look exponential end up as S-shaped / sigmoid curves
- the8472 5y ago
  Well, maybe not exponentially. But at least theoretically things could keep expanding quadratically for a very long time, if we figure out a way to get to other star systems. And much of the sun's output is yet untapped.
Tenoke 5y ago
Energy consumption seems to be increasing linearly since the 40s not exponentially and the increase has been slowing down - to 1-2% increase per year. https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption
- OscarCunningham 5y ago
  Yes, but prices have also been rising over that time. I expect that if prices had remained constant our usages would have gone up exponentially (equivalently, supply would have had to increase exponentially to keep prices constant). If we have low energy usage over the next 4 billion years, but only because the price keeps going up, then it has not 'last us 4 billion years'. The price going up is precisely what 'not lasting us' looks like!
- caeril 5y ago
  We'll probably see that trend tick up again soon. Maybe you haven't been paying attention to the political climate, but there is a huge push to increase the living standards of 6 billion people up to the level of the 1 billion currently living in developed countries, whether through immigration or aid. The relationship between living standards and energy use/carbon emissions is not exactly 1:1, but it's pretty close (net of offshoring one's personal emissions to China, India, etc). Get ready for about a 4x increase in carbon emissions if our suicidal empathy trend continues. What to do, when a ship carrying a hundred passengers suddenly capsizes and there is only one lifeboat? When the lifeboat is full, those who hate life will try to load it with more people and sink the lot. Those who love and respect life will take the ship's axe and sever the extra hands that cling to the sides. ― Pentti Linkola

nine_k 5y ago

No form of exponential growth is sustainable; another name for it is "explosion". In practice, most things that look exponential end up as S-shaped / sigmoid curves

the8472 5y ago
Well, maybe not exponentially. But at least theoretically things could keep expanding quadratically for a very long time, if we figure out a way to get to other star systems. And much of the sun's output is yet untapped.

Tenoke 5y ago

Energy consumption seems to be increasing linearly since the 40s not exponentially and the increase has been slowing down - to 1-2% increase per year. https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption

OscarCunningham 5y ago
Yes, but prices have also been rising over that time. I expect that if prices had remained constant our usages would have gone up exponentially (equivalently, supply would have had to increase exponentially to keep prices constant). If we have low energy usage over the next 4 billion years, but only because the price keeps going up, then it has not 'last us 4 billion years'. The price going up is precisely what 'not lasting us' looks like!
caeril 5y ago
We'll probably see that trend tick up again soon. Maybe you haven't been paying attention to the political climate, but there is a huge push to increase the living standards of 6 billion people up to the level of the 1 billion currently living in developed countries, whether through immigration or aid. The relationship between living standards and energy use/carbon emissions is not exactly 1:1, but it's pretty close (net of offshoring one's personal emissions to China, India, etc). Get ready for about a 4x increase in carbon emissions if our suicidal empathy trend continues. What to do, when a ship carrying a hundred passengers suddenly capsizes and there is only one lifeboat? When the lifeboat is full, those who hate life will try to load it with more people and sink the lot. Those who love and respect life will take the ship's axe and sever the extra hands that cling to the sides. ― Pentti Linkola