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Vanguard PAS (Personal Advisory Service) lately recommends 60/40 diversification on equities, where domestic represents 60% and international 40%. VTIAX is a lo

Vanguard PAS (Personal Advisory Service) lately recommends 60/40 diversification on equities, where domestic represents 60% and international 40%. VTIAX is a low-cost fund to hold.

eatbitseveryday 5y ago
I believe their advice is (under agreement with their clients) is not supposed to be shared. At least how I’ve understood it.
- counternotions 5y ago
  Not a “black box” advisory service from my experiences, which cause some to underrate Vanguard’s professional services. Recommendations are publicly in whitepapers like this: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGGEB_042021_Online.pdf https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGGEB_042021_Online.pdf
nly 5y ago
Well that split in inline with most world/global market cap weighted stock indices so is hardly Earth shattering.
vasilipupkin 5y ago
yeah, that's vanguard standard recommendation, which has been underperforming US markets for years
- nly 5y ago
  Emerging markets outperformed US markets in the periods between 1988-1994, 2003-2007, and 2009-2011
  - vineyardmike 5y ago
    But if you just bought+held, even with that those periods (which are the minority of time), you'd lose. https://bit.ly/3n6dE6t https://bit.ly/3n6dE6t (Citation to PV)
    - nly 5y ago
      Sure, but if you look at the chart the 60/40 US/non-US portfolio has only really outperformed significantly since around 2011. That's the last 10 years out of the last 35 in the bottom graph. The question now is "what happens next?" given rising rates and crazy high US valuations
      - vineyardmike 5y ago
        > The question now is "what happens next?" Historically, the rest of the world handles recessions terribly. Japan, once an economic engine, is stalled... still. Europe is aging and they're still stuttering after 08. Don't expect them to make any surprise economic growth jumping past the US anytime soon. China + other emerging seem like good promises, but china specifically is a huge regulation risk since those companies operate at whim of a government scared of big co's. Also with Evergrande as example, their economy is real estate driven and highly over-leveraged which seems like a major risk to me. All in all, i'm personally keeping investments in america unless i see real ex-us promising growth. So i think "what happens next" is the global rich keep their money in US assets while they slosh around desperate for returns and speculative investments trying to beat inflation. So... imo more of the same but more stressed this time :)

Vanguard PAS (Personal Advisory Service) lately recommends 60/40 diversification on equities, where domestic represents 60% and international 40%. VTIAX is a low-cost fund to hold.

eatbitseveryday 5y ago

I believe their advice is (under agreement with their clients) is not supposed to be shared. At least how I’ve understood it.

counternotions 5y ago
Not a “black box” advisory service from my experiences, which cause some to underrate Vanguard’s professional services. Recommendations are publicly in whitepapers like this: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGGEB_042021_Online.pdf https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGGEB_042021_Online.pdf

nly 5y ago

Well that split in inline with most world/global market cap weighted stock indices so is hardly Earth shattering.

vasilipupkin 5y ago

yeah, that's vanguard standard recommendation, which has been underperforming US markets for years

nly 5y ago
Emerging markets outperformed US markets in the periods between 1988-1994, 2003-2007, and 2009-2011
- vineyardmike 5y ago
  But if you just bought+held, even with that those periods (which are the minority of time), you'd lose. https://bit.ly/3n6dE6t https://bit.ly/3n6dE6t (Citation to PV)
  - nly 5y ago
    Sure, but if you look at the chart the 60/40 US/non-US portfolio has only really outperformed significantly since around 2011. That's the last 10 years out of the last 35 in the bottom graph. The question now is "what happens next?" given rising rates and crazy high US valuations
    - vineyardmike 5y ago
      > The question now is "what happens next?" Historically, the rest of the world handles recessions terribly. Japan, once an economic engine, is stalled... still. Europe is aging and they're still stuttering after 08. Don't expect them to make any surprise economic growth jumping past the US anytime soon. China + other emerging seem like good promises, but china specifically is a huge regulation risk since those companies operate at whim of a government scared of big co's. Also with Evergrande as example, their economy is real estate driven and highly over-leveraged which seems like a major risk to me. All in all, i'm personally keeping investments in america unless i see real ex-us promising growth. So i think "what happens next" is the global rich keep their money in US assets while they slosh around desperate for returns and speculative investments trying to beat inflation. So... imo more of the same but more stressed this time :)