3 ms·

Political will would be to commit to building _many_ reactors in the future, cheaply and safely. Cost overruns are a thing because this is still exotic, bespoke

by m0zg 5y ago

Political will would be to commit to building _many_ reactors in the future, cheaply and safely. Cost overruns are a thing because this is still exotic, bespoke engineering, and it doesn't have to be. In fact, if nuclear is to succeed, it _can't_ be.

natmaka 5y ago
The EPR is a new generation (new reactor design). As usual ramping it up implies to build one (the 'tête de série') or at max a few ones, then to launch series. We always did it this way. Since 2005 4 projects were launched (France: Flamanville, Finland: Olkiluoto, China: Taishan, UK: Hinkley Point). The two first ones are ongoing disasters. Taishan was late and overbudget. Hinkley Point announced, 2 years into its launch, that it will be overschedule and overbudget. In such a context launching now a huge amount of projects isn't realistic. When a project is late due to a lack of skills and project-management abilities (there is a report about this, the "rapport Folz"), launching 6 new projects may not be a terrific idea.
- m0zg 5y ago
  It'll be realistic once China starts building a new reactor every month, which is something they plan to do.
  - natmaka 5y ago
    As far as I know China didn't announce anything. Where is the official announcement? The source is a Bloomberg article ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-11-02/china-climate-goals-hinge-on-440-billion-nuclear-power-plan-to-rival-u-s https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-11-02/china-cli... ) which states that the boss of Chine General Power corp. announced his plans 200GW for 2035, nothing more. Admitting that it is an official governmental announcement (it doesn't seem so(?)) and given that China already has 50GW, that's maybe 100GW new (way less than 150 standard reactors). Compare with renewables: 790GW already running (26% of the gridpower), and 1200GW planned for 2030. In 2020 China added 71,6GW windturbine power. Even considering the load factors the picture is pretty clear. Complements: https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/The-World-Nuclear-Industry-Status-Report-2021-HTML.html#_idTextAnchor021 https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/The-World-Nuclear-Industr... https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/The-World-Nuclear-Industry-Status-Report-2021-HTML.html#_idTextAnchor175 https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/The-World-Nuclear-Industr... (Thanks to Y. Marignac for part of the data)

by m0zg 5y ago

natmaka 5y ago

The EPR is a new generation (new reactor design). As usual ramping it up implies to build one (the 'tête de série') or at max a few ones, then to launch series. We always did it this way. Since 2005 4 projects were launched (France: Flamanville, Finland: Olkiluoto, China: Taishan, UK: Hinkley Point). The two first ones are ongoing disasters. Taishan was late and overbudget. Hinkley Point announced, 2 years into its launch, that it will be overschedule and overbudget. In such a context launching now a huge amount of projects isn't realistic. When a project is late due to a lack of skills and project-management abilities (there is a report about this, the "rapport Folz"), launching 6 new projects may not be a terrific idea.

m0zg 5y ago
It'll be realistic once China starts building a new reactor every month, which is something they plan to do.
- natmaka 5y ago
  As far as I know China didn't announce anything. Where is the official announcement? The source is a Bloomberg article ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-11-02/china-climate-goals-hinge-on-440-billion-nuclear-power-plan-to-rival-u-s https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-11-02/china-cli... ) which states that the boss of Chine General Power corp. announced his plans 200GW for 2035, nothing more. Admitting that it is an official governmental announcement (it doesn't seem so(?)) and given that China already has 50GW, that's maybe 100GW new (way less than 150 standard reactors). Compare with renewables: 790GW already running (26% of the gridpower), and 1200GW planned for 2030. In 2020 China added 71,6GW windturbine power. Even considering the load factors the picture is pretty clear. Complements: https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/The-World-Nuclear-Industry-Status-Report-2021-HTML.html#_idTextAnchor021 https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/The-World-Nuclear-Industr... https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/The-World-Nuclear-Industry-Status-Report-2021-HTML.html#_idTextAnchor175 https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/The-World-Nuclear-Industr... (Thanks to Y. Marignac for part of the data)