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Wonder if all of this is about to become obsolete in 20 years. Consider the following: - Electric cars will very soon have a lower total cost of ownership, and

Wonder if all of this is about to become obsolete in 20 years. Consider the following: - Electric cars will very soon have a lower total cost of ownership, and dramatically lower cost per mile. - Self driving cars are coming. They may have restrictions at first, but they're coming. - The Boring Company is quietly working on fast tunneling. This doesn't get nearly enough press, but it's the last very important ingredient. Not for the whole way, but to solve congestion in and around cities. So when I picture the future I don't think we'll be taking trains. I think we'll take cheap, save and extremely convenient driverless ubers as far as a few hundred miles away. As for farther away? We'll take the same uber to an airport. Sure, you can fuel the planes with carbon neutral fuel, but we're still over 30 years away from replacing jets as main transportation for longer distances. Nor should we - it simply makes sense to fly that far.

pornel 5y ago
Trains like Shinkansen can run at 200mph while offering more space than a business class flight. They're already electric (and pretty much self-driving). I'd rather have that than a 50-70mph journey in a toilet-sized space. Rolling resistance of tires is a limitation here that won't go away with electric/self-driving cars.
- radu_floricica 5y ago
  Most if the investment in trains is the terrain under the rails, which is already made. Converting all existing routes to high speed is a no brainer, which will be delayed beyond all reasonable duration just because they're all government organizations. Probably much longer than it'll take us to have driverless medium-distance ubers. I compared trains to airplanes recently - from Vienna to Swizerland by train because a plane was a bit too expensive. I like trains, but it was not a pleasant experience: - boarding was about as fussy as with airports, maybe a bit more so since I had to stow my own luggage. - I had to change trains 3 times, moving a 20 kg luggage and a 10 kg backpack with often as little as 8 minute leeway in an unknown train station - did not have significantly more room, surprising enough. A seat is a seat, and you can go to the bathroom just as easily in a plane - did I mention it took 8 hours? I don't think cars will be a contender for the long range, not soon. You're right with rolling distance, and also air drag. They don't go well over 100-150 mph. But if their range increases enough, they might just squeeze trains out of their niche. Trains lose hard to ubers on short trips, and to planes on longer ones. They're already subsidized by the government. With any less passengers, and a strong need of upgrading to very high speed, it may start to make sense to drop a lot of them and focus on the rest.
  - lycopodiopsida 5y ago
    > Converting all existing routes to high speed is a no brainer, which will be delayed beyond all reasonable duration just because they're all government organizations. It varies between "not easy" and "not possible", certainly far away from a "no brainer". High-speed train routes are very sensible to curvature and have to be built as plain as possible. Second problem: if other, slower, trains also use high-speed routes all kinds of ugly things happen and the high-speed trains are not so high-speed in anymore - it is one of the main reasons why german DB trains are so slow and unreliable. In practice, countries with good high-speed train networks (Japan, France, China) have separate high-speed routes which are used only by high-speed trains. Which turns the necessary investment up to 11.
    - radu_floricica 5y ago
      Yet another reason why we'll end up with ubers + planes. Separate lines is not really feasible in most of EU. I'm mostly pissed at the subsidizing part. There is a comment in this thread saying we should tax air companies more to convince people to take trains. I hate this with a burning passion. If an industry isn't working anymore, the solution isn't to throw money at it. It can find its own place, probably a mix of cargo and dedicated high speed lines. Anyways, it's still early - right now there are precious few electric ubers, and none that are self driving.
      - lycopodiopsida 5y ago
        I think it is certainly true that planes are subsidized - they are not paying tax on fuel, for example, and I can't think of any good reason why it should be the case. I am not so bullish on trains, however - it takes a long time to build the lines and it will again benefit only few big cities. As with bikes, it is a discussion of city inhabitants for city inhabitants, for the rest of us car is still the only comfortable solution because it can take you anytime anywhere.
thatfrenchguy 5y ago
> - The Boring Company is quietly working on fast tunneling. This doesn't get nearly enough press, but it's the last very important ingredient. Not for the whole way, but to solve congestion in and around cities. Tunnels already exist around most cities in the EU, it's nothing new. The ground is already swiss cheese from 20+ rail/metro/tunnels there, a small tunnel isn't going to help in any way.
- radu_floricica 5y ago
  And also it's harder to dig because of environmental and archeological concerns. I know. It's a problem.
qnsi 5y ago
but how is uber more convenient than train? I can walk, go to toilet, buy something to eat on a train. Can't do in in an uber
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > but how is uber more convenient than train? Different things are good for different people. I can get in an Uber and take a nap or take phone calls and know that I'll arrive at my destination, eventually. No need to keep track of connections or transportation to and from a station or anything else. Having all options presented robustly grants everyone the best of both worlds.
- njarboe 5y ago
  An uber drops you and your stuff off where you want to go?
  - freeflight 5y ago
    Kinda like those taxis waiting outside of central stations and airports?
- HPsquared 5y ago
  It actually picks you up from your starting point, and drops you at your destination.
- radu_floricica 5y ago
  I don't think we'll see "long distance ubers" as a separate service - you'll just get into one and have it take you an hour away. Which, with proper road infrastructure, will naturally get to be about 100-200 km in less then 10 years or 200-300 later. You don't really need a toilet for that - or if you do, you just make a stop at a gas station, and have it wait or get another. Remember that Europe is not US - it's pretty much urban space next to urban space, not hundreds of miles of nothing. And for longer distances you fly (or yes, you get a high speed train)
JumpCrisscross 5y ago
Electric VTOL craft for short- and medium-distance are another nail in the coffin for regional rail.
- ryukafalz 5y ago
  I certainly hope not. Can you imagine how loud it would be hearing a few thousand of those things buzzing overhead?
- radu_floricica 5y ago
  Nah, point is to get uber cars to cost under 10k, not up the price to what is basically a next gen helicopter.
phartenfeller 5y ago
What do you say to this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACXaFyB_-8s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACXaFyB_-8s ? Trains are and will be the most efficient way to transport lots of people. There is not enough space in big european cities for everyone to use their own vehicle. (And in my opinion that is good).
- radu_floricica 5y ago
  It's snarky, but misses the point. The "pod" concept has already been abandoned. The project they're currently working on in Vegas is using Teslas as rented cars. What clicked it for me was seeing price comparisons between a train and a bunch of Teslas of equals capacity - they're about the same. Yes, subway trains are hugely expensive - either because they need to be, or because it's all government contracts. And Tesla is pretty much a luxury vehicle so we can easily expect an order of magnitude of decrease.

pornel 5y ago

Trains like Shinkansen can run at 200mph while offering more space than a business class flight. They're already electric (and pretty much self-driving). I'd rather have that than a 50-70mph journey in a toilet-sized space. Rolling resistance of tires is a limitation here that won't go away with electric/self-driving cars.

radu_floricica 5y ago
Most if the investment in trains is the terrain under the rails, which is already made. Converting all existing routes to high speed is a no brainer, which will be delayed beyond all reasonable duration just because they're all government organizations. Probably much longer than it'll take us to have driverless medium-distance ubers. I compared trains to airplanes recently - from Vienna to Swizerland by train because a plane was a bit too expensive. I like trains, but it was not a pleasant experience: - boarding was about as fussy as with airports, maybe a bit more so since I had to stow my own luggage. - I had to change trains 3 times, moving a 20 kg luggage and a 10 kg backpack with often as little as 8 minute leeway in an unknown train station - did not have significantly more room, surprising enough. A seat is a seat, and you can go to the bathroom just as easily in a plane - did I mention it took 8 hours? I don't think cars will be a contender for the long range, not soon. You're right with rolling distance, and also air drag. They don't go well over 100-150 mph. But if their range increases enough, they might just squeeze trains out of their niche. Trains lose hard to ubers on short trips, and to planes on longer ones. They're already subsidized by the government. With any less passengers, and a strong need of upgrading to very high speed, it may start to make sense to drop a lot of them and focus on the rest.
- lycopodiopsida 5y ago
  > Converting all existing routes to high speed is a no brainer, which will be delayed beyond all reasonable duration just because they're all government organizations. It varies between "not easy" and "not possible", certainly far away from a "no brainer". High-speed train routes are very sensible to curvature and have to be built as plain as possible. Second problem: if other, slower, trains also use high-speed routes all kinds of ugly things happen and the high-speed trains are not so high-speed in anymore - it is one of the main reasons why german DB trains are so slow and unreliable. In practice, countries with good high-speed train networks (Japan, France, China) have separate high-speed routes which are used only by high-speed trains. Which turns the necessary investment up to 11.
  - radu_floricica 5y ago
    Yet another reason why we'll end up with ubers + planes. Separate lines is not really feasible in most of EU. I'm mostly pissed at the subsidizing part. There is a comment in this thread saying we should tax air companies more to convince people to take trains. I hate this with a burning passion. If an industry isn't working anymore, the solution isn't to throw money at it. It can find its own place, probably a mix of cargo and dedicated high speed lines. Anyways, it's still early - right now there are precious few electric ubers, and none that are self driving.
    - lycopodiopsida 5y ago
      I think it is certainly true that planes are subsidized - they are not paying tax on fuel, for example, and I can't think of any good reason why it should be the case. I am not so bullish on trains, however - it takes a long time to build the lines and it will again benefit only few big cities. As with bikes, it is a discussion of city inhabitants for city inhabitants, for the rest of us car is still the only comfortable solution because it can take you anytime anywhere.

thatfrenchguy 5y ago

> - The Boring Company is quietly working on fast tunneling. This doesn't get nearly enough press, but it's the last very important ingredient. Not for the whole way, but to solve congestion in and around cities. Tunnels already exist around most cities in the EU, it's nothing new. The ground is already swiss cheese from 20+ rail/metro/tunnels there, a small tunnel isn't going to help in any way.

radu_floricica 5y ago
And also it's harder to dig because of environmental and archeological concerns. I know. It's a problem.

qnsi 5y ago

but how is uber more convenient than train? I can walk, go to toilet, buy something to eat on a train. Can't do in in an uber

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> but how is uber more convenient than train? Different things are good for different people. I can get in an Uber and take a nap or take phone calls and know that I'll arrive at my destination, eventually. No need to keep track of connections or transportation to and from a station or anything else. Having all options presented robustly grants everyone the best of both worlds.
njarboe 5y ago
An uber drops you and your stuff off where you want to go?
- freeflight 5y ago
  Kinda like those taxis waiting outside of central stations and airports?
HPsquared 5y ago
It actually picks you up from your starting point, and drops you at your destination.
radu_floricica 5y ago
I don't think we'll see "long distance ubers" as a separate service - you'll just get into one and have it take you an hour away. Which, with proper road infrastructure, will naturally get to be about 100-200 km in less then 10 years or 200-300 later. You don't really need a toilet for that - or if you do, you just make a stop at a gas station, and have it wait or get another. Remember that Europe is not US - it's pretty much urban space next to urban space, not hundreds of miles of nothing. And for longer distances you fly (or yes, you get a high speed train)

JumpCrisscross 5y ago

Electric VTOL craft for short- and medium-distance are another nail in the coffin for regional rail.

ryukafalz 5y ago
I certainly hope not. Can you imagine how loud it would be hearing a few thousand of those things buzzing overhead?
radu_floricica 5y ago
Nah, point is to get uber cars to cost under 10k, not up the price to what is basically a next gen helicopter.

phartenfeller 5y ago

What do you say to this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACXaFyB_-8s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACXaFyB_-8s ? Trains are and will be the most efficient way to transport lots of people. There is not enough space in big european cities for everyone to use their own vehicle. (And in my opinion that is good).

radu_floricica 5y ago
It's snarky, but misses the point. The "pod" concept has already been abandoned. The project they're currently working on in Vegas is using Teslas as rented cars. What clicked it for me was seeing price comparisons between a train and a bunch of Teslas of equals capacity - they're about the same. Yes, subway trains are hugely expensive - either because they need to be, or because it's all government contracts. And Tesla is pretty much a luxury vehicle so we can easily expect an order of magnitude of decrease.