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I think we will lower the bar of what is acceptable. You seem to think they need perfect track record or it’s a no go but we know that is not true. People are w
by 14 5y ago
I think we will lower the bar of what is acceptable. You seem to think they need perfect track record or it’s a no go but we know that is not true. People are willing to take the odds to do something awesome. Look at the first time one of Tesla’s self driving cars caused a fatality. No one stopped using their auto pilot. It will be the same if a rocket full of people blows up, they will investigate the issue and build a safer one the next time. Then with the prospect of heading to space another crew will eagerly line up.
- dotancohen 5y ago> they will investigate the issue and build a safer one the next time The parallels between the new Starship and the Comet are many. As excited as I am to see the new Starship flying, and I would fly it, I wouldn't want my children to fly on it. At least, not the landing part. If they could launch and perform all exatmospheric activities in a Starship yet land in a Dragon (or Soyuz) I'd be fine with that.
- an9n 5y agoI think it's going to be a long time and many many launches of Starship before a human is put on it, at least for launch or reentry. Having a reliable separate launch system in Falcon 9/Dragon gives SpaceX a ton of flexibility in terms of launch/reentry on a relatively proven system, with transfer to orbital Starship for Moon/Mars as necessary.
- dotancohen 5y agoI agree that it will take many launches before a human is put on Starship. That said, SpaceX will probably be able to relaunch early Starships with a few months of their initial launches, and might be able to refurbish a Starship for launch within a few weeks in short order. I would not be surprised to see a single Starship perform three launches and landings by the end of 2022. We could see a dozen total Starship launches and landings in that same timeframe. We might see people fly on it by 2023. That's not a long time.