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But Falcon 9 also took a long time because it doesn't launch all that often and SpaceX had a lot to learn about how to work with NASA. The "idea" of Starship /
by SEJeff 5y ago
But Falcon 9 also took a long time because it doesn't launch all that often and SpaceX had a lot to learn about how to work with NASA. The "idea" of Starship / Superheavy is that the same first and second stage can get caught by the landing tower "chopsticks", have a crane re-mate them, fuel them, and relaunch them within 24 hours or less.
If they can relaunch the same entire stack more than say 2 times per day, they're going to absolutely hit the reliability margins[1] that NASA / the FAA want to see in a very short time period.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human-rating_certification https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human-rating_certification
The NASA CCP human-rating standards require that the probability of a loss on ascent does not exceed 1 in 500, and that the probability of a loss on descent did not exceed 1 in 500. The overall mission loss risk, which includes vehicle risk from micrometeorites and orbital debris while in orbit for up to 210 days, is required to be no more than 1 in 270.[3] Maximum sustained acceleration is limited to 3 g.
- voakbasda 5y agoI would very much like to see the data and math used to calculate these odds.
- cryptonector 5y agoAccording to Feynman, in the case of the shuttle there was no such calculation, just assertion.
- SEJeff 5y agoThe shuttle progam's motto was "beat the russians" more or less, so that checks out. There is a lot of background in the biographies of both Chuck Yaeger AND John Glenn about some of this if you like that sort of thing.
- panick21_ 5y ago> The shuttle progam's motto was "beat the russians" more or less, so that checks out. And they achieved the exact opposite.