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The German car lobby is very powerful. But not powerful enough to prevent the implosion of their business. There are two types of car companies in Germany: tho

The German car lobby is very powerful. But not powerful enough to prevent the implosion of their business. There are two types of car companies in Germany: those on track to switch to fully electric production in the next 5-10 years; and those nowhere near on track that are very afraid of the implosion of their market share as those others are saturating the market with EVs. That's not a future thing; it's already happening. So, the Germans committing to any ICE phaseout would speed this process up and mess with the (long) time they've given themselves to get out of this mess. The problem with that timeline is that they no longer control it. The transition is happening, whether they like it or not. Tesla was within a few hundred cars of dethroning the VW Golf as the most popular car in Germany. VWs iconic Wolfsburg plant, which was restored by the allied forces after WW II, is hitting a record low production volume this year at the same time Tesla is opening up a factory in Germany. That's not a coincidence. And VW is one of the better prepared manufacturers. They actually have a decent shot at surviving the transition to EVs. But that's not necessarily true of the other manufacturers.

thorin 5y ago
Interested, what are the companies that have not prepared for electric in Germany and which have? I don't really see that many Teslas here in the UK, but maybe as a percentage of new cars sold the number is quite high (and I'm sure it's a lot higher in London).
- input_sh 5y ago
  Opel is the first one that comes to my mind. They've only introduced their first electric models last year, still no electric versions of their more popular models (Astra or Insignia).
  - csunbird 5y ago
    They are French, owned by Peugeot.
    - PinguTS 5y ago
      Not Peugeot. It is PSA. But PSA are now partnered with Fiat-Chrysler and made the new company Stellantis.
    - input_sh 5y ago
      Sure, on paper. Their HQ is still in Germany, they use German name, and more than half of its workforce is in Germany. Being a subsidiary of a French company doesn't make them not German.
      - PinguTS 5y ago
        Opel is not really anymore German. Opel is just re-selling cars from PSA like Seat/Skoda is re-selling cars from VW. With the distinction that Seat/Skoda has much more freedom on production decisions and personalization decisions that Opel has. I have many engineering friends who left Opel because of this. Opel is much more dependent as it ever was with GM.
  - PinguTS 5y ago
    Opel had their first electric car years back, when they were still part of GM. The GM Volt is the very same car as the Opel Ampera. Before that came out, internally they developed their own version of an electric car, but were not allowed by GM to bring it to light and had to resell the GM version.
  - sofixa 5y ago
    Opel are a part of PSA, now a part of Stellantis. The whole bunch is a but late to the electric party, but they're working on it, it's not like they've refused, it's just taking time.
- jillesvangurp 5y ago
  Opel and BMW are lagging quite a bit. IMHO their current strategy has them on a path where they won't survive the transition. Too little too late basically. Daimler has a few expensive models on the market but is not really selling those in large volume. Their recently announced cars seem nice though and their focus on the luxury segment and brand actually makes a lot of sense. And since they are not about high volume sales and selling at a premium, they can get away with cost disadvantages more easily. The ones that are in better shape are all associated with the Volkswagen group (Porsche, Audi, VW itself) thanks to VW having gotten aggressive on this topic a bit earlier (courtesy of Diesel gate). And even those still have some catching up to do. IMHO the real issue for these manufacturers is not even Tesla but the coming influx of cheap Chinese imports. So far, manufacturers have been able to pretend it's all about the luxury segment and sell a few EVs at a premium (typically above their ICE pricing). Once EV prices dip below 20K euro, it's a different game. That might happen in 2022 already. Chinese manufacturers have a lot of very interesting EVs already on the roads in China that are being produced in volume. Exporting those to the US and Europe is more a question of when than if. It's a repeat of what happened when Japanese cars started competing in the 1980s. It forced everybody else to up their game. This time around, the required changes are more disruptive. Everything from supply chain management, car design, software development, sales, etc. is in need of change. It's about cost and margins. The question is not whether manufacturers can produce EVs but whether they can do so at the right price point and still make a profit. What's on the market right now is a bit challenged on that front. Except for a handful of manufacturers.
toyg 5y ago
I seriously doubt Teslas are anywhere near Golf numbers. They are much more expensive.
- dagw 5y ago
  Tesla beat the Golf by ~10k cars in global new car sales 2020. Although Golf sales have admittedly almost halved over the past 5 years and is currently outsold by both the Polo and Tiguan
  - toyg 5y ago
    Yeah, _global_ - Teslas are mostly sold in the US. In Europe they are still way too expensive. In Germany the total amount of Tesla models sold in the first 6 months of 2021, according to the link posted in a sibling comment, is less than a quarter of just the Golf. When you combine all models, VW in Germany sells 20 times the cars that Tesla does. I understand the hype States-side, but in Europe the situation is different. People keep saying it will change once Tesla has an EU factory, but we'll have to see - opening a factory is no walk in the park, and by the time that happens VW might have a better electric line.
- watt 5y ago
  Currently Tesla has to ship all their vehicles to Germany. Once Berlin factory starts rolling I expect the game to change dramatically.
- erk__ 5y ago
  It helps that Tesla only have ~3 car models they are selling as a brand they are quite a bit further down the list at #23. https://www.best-selling-cars.com/germany/2021-half-year-germany-best-selling-car-brands-and-models/ https://www.best-selling-cars.com/germany/2021-half-year-ger...
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
bellyfullofbac 5y ago
> a record low production volume this year at the same time Tesla is opening up a factory in Germany. That's not a coincidence. Ah yeah, surely the supply chain crisis has nothing to do with it /s . This sentence made me doubt your entire comment and ability to see things clearly.
- turbinerneiter 5y ago
  Tesla is doing way better in the supply chain crisis than VW and other carmakers. Granted, their volume is much lower, but it is still a sign for things that they are doing better.
sarsway 5y ago
Tesla is also far ahead in the software game. It will become more and more important as a way to differentiate EVs from the competition and younger generations are prioritizing software a lot higher in general. People are used to iOS & Android levels of UX, and when you step into most cars, it's - well not pretty. It will break some well established car manufactures, because it's a world they don't understand and can't adapt. Like when a lot of old media companies simply died due to the advent of the internet. The only one that seems to be paying attention is Daimler, they must have seen the transition coming and have been making huge investments into developing their digital services for a while now.
- notahacker 5y ago
  I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that achieving Android/iOS levels of UX is an easier step for car companies than achieving VW standards of car production for tech startups.
  - Isinlor 5y ago
    Both are extremely difficult. Especially, that going towards good UX involves vertical integration, and whole legacy car business is based on extensive supply networks.
- robbiep 5y ago
  I’ll start by saying that I’m not a Tesla owner and have only been in a few but frankly I think the peak of the UX experience in cars is having iOS/Android connectivity and plugging that fucker in and having full access to your phone. I don’t want some custom interface and I’m pretty sure I don’t want a big touchscreen (in fact I’m a Mazda driver and I love their stance against touchscreens). And I think until we reach level 5 that’s where we need to be because it’s distracting and dangerous. I think that any gap between VW/BMW/Merc today and whatever is meant to be magic about Tesla is insignificant. The battery capacity however… different story! Edit: it occurred to me maybe you mean their self driving tech - I think the reality is they and everyone else is really sooooo far away from this, it’s basically as far away as fusion power - just another 5 years. When a electric car can navigate my shitty rural roads or the streets of Rome, were there. Highway driving isn’t it and frankly I think the evidence is still out as to whether the high level driver assists are actually beneficial compared to something like lane warnings and that modulating cruise control which makes my regular 9 hr drives a breeze
lexs 5y ago
According to official statistics [0] the Golf is still selling more than twice as many units per month and the ID3 is selling 50% more than the Model 3. The Model 3 is more comparable to the BMW i3 numbers wise. [0] https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/MonatlicheNeuzulassungen/2021/202110_GImonatlich/202110_n_top50.html?nn=3504038&monthFilter=10_Oktober&fromStatistic=3504038&yearFilter=2021&fromStatistic=3536106&yearFilter=2021&monthFilter=10_Oktober https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/Mon...
- jillesvangurp 5y ago
  According to this, the model 3 almost beat the Golf last month: https://cleantechnica.com/2021/10/15/tesla-model-3-reaches-1-in-germany-in-29-plugin-vehicle-share-market/ https://cleantechnica.com/2021/10/15/tesla-model-3-reaches-1...
- _ph_ 5y ago
  That are the numbers of October. Tesla doesn't sell many cars in Europe in October, as they are always produced at the quarter start, then shipped and sold towards the quarter end. This also means, that the September numbers, where the Model 3 did almost beat the Golf, are inflated. The truth is somewhere in the middle. So, even if the Model 3 isn't quite beating the Golf yet, it is coming closer. This will even be more the case, once Tesla produced in Europe, as there are no import taxes on the vehicle and the prices lower.
  - leereeves 5y ago
    According to that table, VW had 9 models among the top 50 whereas Tesla only had 1 (the Model 3), and all but one of VW's 9 most popular models outsold the Model 3 so far this year (January to October). The Golf alone sold over 3x as many units as the Model 3. So while Tesla is quickly gaining market share, VW is still selling 10x as many cars in Germany.
    - _ph_ 5y ago
      No one doubts that VW is producing a higher car count then Tesla. Currently about 10x. But the point is, the Golf used to be the most popular car in Germany, so if Tesla, even shortly, can approach that number, it is a huge milestone. Especially, as the second Tesla model for the mass market, the Model Y, just entered the German market and promises to sell even better than the Model 3.
csunbird 5y ago
The problem is, Tesla's are the only electric car that makes sense to buy, although VW's ID4 is a really good car as well. The BMW and Mercedes-Benz electric versions are stupid expensive, with inferior technical specifications, the range, the power and the price point are all missing the mark. Why pay 50k Euros for a BMW/Mercedes with 350km range, while you can get a model 3 with 500km range for 42k (or the long range one with 600km range for 50k instead)? VW's ID4 is the only one that can keep up with Tesla in price/performance ratio, while having good range.
- dagw 5y ago
  VW's ID4 is the only one that can keep up with Tesla in price/performance ratio, while having good range. Hyundai seems to be doing pretty well with the Ioniq 5, and the Kia EV6 looks interesting. On a price/performance scale I would definitely rate the Honda E as well as a very nice 'good enough' electric car that's significantly cheaper than a Tesla.

thorin 5y ago

Interested, what are the companies that have not prepared for electric in Germany and which have? I don't really see that many Teslas here in the UK, but maybe as a percentage of new cars sold the number is quite high (and I'm sure it's a lot higher in London).

input_sh 5y ago
Opel is the first one that comes to my mind. They've only introduced their first electric models last year, still no electric versions of their more popular models (Astra or Insignia).
- csunbird 5y ago
  They are French, owned by Peugeot.
  - PinguTS 5y ago
    Not Peugeot. It is PSA. But PSA are now partnered with Fiat-Chrysler and made the new company Stellantis.
  - input_sh 5y ago
    Sure, on paper. Their HQ is still in Germany, they use German name, and more than half of its workforce is in Germany. Being a subsidiary of a French company doesn't make them not German.
    - PinguTS 5y ago
      Opel is not really anymore German. Opel is just re-selling cars from PSA like Seat/Skoda is re-selling cars from VW. With the distinction that Seat/Skoda has much more freedom on production decisions and personalization decisions that Opel has. I have many engineering friends who left Opel because of this. Opel is much more dependent as it ever was with GM.
- PinguTS 5y ago
  Opel had their first electric car years back, when they were still part of GM. The GM Volt is the very same car as the Opel Ampera. Before that came out, internally they developed their own version of an electric car, but were not allowed by GM to bring it to light and had to resell the GM version.
- sofixa 5y ago
  Opel are a part of PSA, now a part of Stellantis. The whole bunch is a but late to the electric party, but they're working on it, it's not like they've refused, it's just taking time.
jillesvangurp 5y ago
Opel and BMW are lagging quite a bit. IMHO their current strategy has them on a path where they won't survive the transition. Too little too late basically. Daimler has a few expensive models on the market but is not really selling those in large volume. Their recently announced cars seem nice though and their focus on the luxury segment and brand actually makes a lot of sense. And since they are not about high volume sales and selling at a premium, they can get away with cost disadvantages more easily. The ones that are in better shape are all associated with the Volkswagen group (Porsche, Audi, VW itself) thanks to VW having gotten aggressive on this topic a bit earlier (courtesy of Diesel gate). And even those still have some catching up to do. IMHO the real issue for these manufacturers is not even Tesla but the coming influx of cheap Chinese imports. So far, manufacturers have been able to pretend it's all about the luxury segment and sell a few EVs at a premium (typically above their ICE pricing). Once EV prices dip below 20K euro, it's a different game. That might happen in 2022 already. Chinese manufacturers have a lot of very interesting EVs already on the roads in China that are being produced in volume. Exporting those to the US and Europe is more a question of when than if. It's a repeat of what happened when Japanese cars started competing in the 1980s. It forced everybody else to up their game. This time around, the required changes are more disruptive. Everything from supply chain management, car design, software development, sales, etc. is in need of change. It's about cost and margins. The question is not whether manufacturers can produce EVs but whether they can do so at the right price point and still make a profit. What's on the market right now is a bit challenged on that front. Except for a handful of manufacturers.

toyg 5y ago

I seriously doubt Teslas are anywhere near Golf numbers. They are much more expensive.

dagw 5y ago
Tesla beat the Golf by ~10k cars in global new car sales 2020. Although Golf sales have admittedly almost halved over the past 5 years and is currently outsold by both the Polo and Tiguan
- toyg 5y ago
  Yeah, _global_ - Teslas are mostly sold in the US. In Europe they are still way too expensive. In Germany the total amount of Tesla models sold in the first 6 months of 2021, according to the link posted in a sibling comment, is less than a quarter of just the Golf. When you combine all models, VW in Germany sells 20 times the cars that Tesla does. I understand the hype States-side, but in Europe the situation is different. People keep saying it will change once Tesla has an EU factory, but we'll have to see - opening a factory is no walk in the park, and by the time that happens VW might have a better electric line.
watt 5y ago
Currently Tesla has to ship all their vehicles to Germany. Once Berlin factory starts rolling I expect the game to change dramatically.
erk__ 5y ago
It helps that Tesla only have ~3 car models they are selling as a brand they are quite a bit further down the list at #23. https://www.best-selling-cars.com/germany/2021-half-year-germany-best-selling-car-brands-and-models/ https://www.best-selling-cars.com/germany/2021-half-year-ger...
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

bellyfullofbac 5y ago

> a record low production volume this year at the same time Tesla is opening up a factory in Germany. That's not a coincidence. Ah yeah, surely the supply chain crisis has nothing to do with it /s . This sentence made me doubt your entire comment and ability to see things clearly.

turbinerneiter 5y ago
Tesla is doing way better in the supply chain crisis than VW and other carmakers. Granted, their volume is much lower, but it is still a sign for things that they are doing better.

sarsway 5y ago

Tesla is also far ahead in the software game. It will become more and more important as a way to differentiate EVs from the competition and younger generations are prioritizing software a lot higher in general. People are used to iOS & Android levels of UX, and when you step into most cars, it's - well not pretty. It will break some well established car manufactures, because it's a world they don't understand and can't adapt. Like when a lot of old media companies simply died due to the advent of the internet. The only one that seems to be paying attention is Daimler, they must have seen the transition coming and have been making huge investments into developing their digital services for a while now.

notahacker 5y ago
I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that achieving Android/iOS levels of UX is an easier step for car companies than achieving VW standards of car production for tech startups.
- Isinlor 5y ago
  Both are extremely difficult. Especially, that going towards good UX involves vertical integration, and whole legacy car business is based on extensive supply networks.
robbiep 5y ago
I’ll start by saying that I’m not a Tesla owner and have only been in a few but frankly I think the peak of the UX experience in cars is having iOS/Android connectivity and plugging that fucker in and having full access to your phone. I don’t want some custom interface and I’m pretty sure I don’t want a big touchscreen (in fact I’m a Mazda driver and I love their stance against touchscreens). And I think until we reach level 5 that’s where we need to be because it’s distracting and dangerous. I think that any gap between VW/BMW/Merc today and whatever is meant to be magic about Tesla is insignificant. The battery capacity however… different story! Edit: it occurred to me maybe you mean their self driving tech - I think the reality is they and everyone else is really sooooo far away from this, it’s basically as far away as fusion power - just another 5 years. When a electric car can navigate my shitty rural roads or the streets of Rome, were there. Highway driving isn’t it and frankly I think the evidence is still out as to whether the high level driver assists are actually beneficial compared to something like lane warnings and that modulating cruise control which makes my regular 9 hr drives a breeze

lexs 5y ago

According to official statistics [0] the Golf is still selling more than twice as many units per month and the ID3 is selling 50% more than the Model 3. The Model 3 is more comparable to the BMW i3 numbers wise. [0] https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/MonatlicheNeuzulassungen/2021/202110_GImonatlich/202110_n_top50.html?nn=3504038&monthFilter=10_Oktober&fromStatistic=3504038&yearFilter=2021&fromStatistic=3536106&yearFilter=2021&monthFilter=10_Oktober https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/Mon...

jillesvangurp 5y ago
According to this, the model 3 almost beat the Golf last month: https://cleantechnica.com/2021/10/15/tesla-model-3-reaches-1-in-germany-in-29-plugin-vehicle-share-market/ https://cleantechnica.com/2021/10/15/tesla-model-3-reaches-1...
_ph_ 5y ago
That are the numbers of October. Tesla doesn't sell many cars in Europe in October, as they are always produced at the quarter start, then shipped and sold towards the quarter end. This also means, that the September numbers, where the Model 3 did almost beat the Golf, are inflated. The truth is somewhere in the middle. So, even if the Model 3 isn't quite beating the Golf yet, it is coming closer. This will even be more the case, once Tesla produced in Europe, as there are no import taxes on the vehicle and the prices lower.
- leereeves 5y ago
  According to that table, VW had 9 models among the top 50 whereas Tesla only had 1 (the Model 3), and all but one of VW's 9 most popular models outsold the Model 3 so far this year (January to October). The Golf alone sold over 3x as many units as the Model 3. So while Tesla is quickly gaining market share, VW is still selling 10x as many cars in Germany.
  - _ph_ 5y ago
    No one doubts that VW is producing a higher car count then Tesla. Currently about 10x. But the point is, the Golf used to be the most popular car in Germany, so if Tesla, even shortly, can approach that number, it is a huge milestone. Especially, as the second Tesla model for the mass market, the Model Y, just entered the German market and promises to sell even better than the Model 3.

csunbird 5y ago

The problem is, Tesla's are the only electric car that makes sense to buy, although VW's ID4 is a really good car as well. The BMW and Mercedes-Benz electric versions are stupid expensive, with inferior technical specifications, the range, the power and the price point are all missing the mark. Why pay 50k Euros for a BMW/Mercedes with 350km range, while you can get a model 3 with 500km range for 42k (or the long range one with 600km range for 50k instead)? VW's ID4 is the only one that can keep up with Tesla in price/performance ratio, while having good range.

dagw 5y ago
VW's ID4 is the only one that can keep up with Tesla in price/performance ratio, while having good range. Hyundai seems to be doing pretty well with the Ioniq 5, and the Kia EV6 looks interesting. On a price/performance scale I would definitely rate the Honda E as well as a very nice 'good enough' electric car that's significantly cheaper than a Tesla.