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A total shift to electric vehicles in less than 20 years sounds quite optimistic if I'm being honest. Not signing something you know you can't meet sounds like

A total shift to electric vehicles in less than 20 years sounds quite optimistic if I'm being honest. Not signing something you know you can't meet sounds like a fair choice.

_0ffh 5y ago
Absolutely, especially given the state of European electrical power production and grid, most of all Germany's. France at least has got the memo and is trying to do something about it, while Germany seems totally paralysed in this regard, which I doubt will improve with the coming administration.
- emn13 5y ago
  Nothing like a good winter of blackouts to... energize political momentum. Even this winter, clearly still pre-EV dominance, is going to be interesting - if it's cold in europe for long, and if Russia decides to use their current position of power for a nasty short-term shock, that could really shift people's willingness to accept a few sacrifices in the coming years. I wouldn't count them out just because they've got issues; those things might change quite quickly - some of the needed infrastructure can be built in just a few years, once the political will is there, which currently is lacking. Sure, it's a problem, but on this topic: what else is new.
- _Microft 5y ago
  What do you mean? I cannot remember the last time we actually had a power outage here. It is also not like we aren't working on making the grid ready for increased loads. A more known example for that is Suedlink that is meant to connect the wind farms in northern Germany to the south of it by moving 4GW of power (that's 5-10% of total power generation in Germany alone) over hundreds of kilometers.
  - _0ffh 5y ago
    Progress on SuedLink is glacial and projected completion has been pushed back from 2022 to 2025 in 2016. Current estimates are between 2026 and 2028. Meanwhile the shutting down of the last nuclear power plants in Germany, the original reason for SuedLink, is on track to happen by the end of 2022. I am not impressed by the level of foresight on display here.
Skyy93 5y ago
The german car lobby tries something different: Why not using the combustion engine with clean sources of energy? I think its a rather clever choice to be against the end of the combustion engine when you can fuel them with something like: hydrogen, e-fuels or methanol. In Ingolstadt (Audi HQ is there) a former Audi engineer invented a car with 800 kilometres (500 miles). So there are alternatives to electric-only.
- sterlind 5y ago
  500 miles of range? You could get by making the fuel tank bigger. I assume you meant miles per gallon or something?
  - Skyy93 5y ago
    Nope, 500 miles of range here the website link https://www.rolandgumpert.com/en/ https://www.rolandgumpert.com/en/ of course, this range is only correct with best circumstances, in practice it will be less
    - _ph_ 5y ago
      As far as I can see, this is a nice prototype but not a practical concept. This car is using a methanol fuel cell. They seem to be quite rare yet and not ready for mass production. And there is no mass production of green methanol yet. It would of course be much more storeable than hydrogen.
  - jkepler 5y ago
    I routinely got 500+ miles range out of my diesel TDI Jetta... I believe it was a 2002.
    - fogihujy 5y ago
      My old Peugeot Partner (2003), can easily go 650 km with plenty of petrol left in the tank. I don't think 800 km would be out of the question. Edit: according to the specs, it should have a range of 960 km (597 miles) under optimal conditions. It sounds more than I would expect, but then the car is almost 20 years old. Still, the low fuel consumption is one of the reasons I keep it -- it uses less fuel than modern hybrids do.
DoingIsLearning 5y ago
I'm pretty sure it's phasing it out on new cars not completely replacing old ICEs. If anything I think 20 years is too long. Specially since these drafts always get diluted and things like hybrid motors are probably also going to be deemed 'electric'.
- adrianN 5y ago
  Yeah, 20 years is way too long. If the last ICE is sold in 2040, that car is likely still on the road in Germany in 2055 and is then sold to some poorer country where it will drive on for another ten years. How are we supposed to reach net-zero in 2045 like that?
  - phicoh 5y ago
    One way would be to have a ban of exporting ICE cars after 2050.
marcyb5st 5y ago
Honestly I think it's doable. If the cost per kWh and the energy density of batteries follow the trend we currently have it will be much more convenient to own an EV. Some countries already banned the sale of ICE vehicles in less than 10y [1] if these conditions are met. The problem will be recharging in cities. In the suburbs/countryside it is very likely you can plug your car at night in your garage or similar. This is not true in cities since owning a parking spot with access to electricity is expensive. So, if cities will start putting plugs in "normal" parking spots I don't see any major issue in shifting completely to EV. [1] https://netherlandsnewslive.com/flanders-bans-the-sale-of-new-cars-with-a-combustion-engine-from-2029-car-2/278265/ https://netherlandsnewslive.com/flanders-bans-the-sale-of-ne...
- fogihujy 5y ago
  Total shift? No. It's possible for urban areas in developed countries, assuming we solve the current energy distribution issues. Nuclear is slowly getting back on the agenda, and renewables are slowly taking market share from fossil fuels, so that might actually happen if combined with massive upgrades to local and regional public transport systems. Even in places like the Nordic countries and Western Europe, massive infrastructure upgrades needs to be put in place to allow people in the rural areas to get rid of ICE's. And that's personal use. Getting forestry and agriculture to switch to electric will take many decades. We need synthetic fuels produced with renewable/nuclear energy, and we need them fast. Yes, EV's are nice and they will cover a lot of the use-cases, but they're not a silver bullet to end all worries.
_ph_ 5y ago
This isn't about banning ICE cars altogether, but about banning the sale of new ICE cars. Which should hopefully basically be achieved by 2030 or so, or we are screwed. And I think it is realistic. In the last month, about 17% of all new cars in Germany were electric. Sure that has been helped by low production due to chip shortages, but I really hope that the majority of all new cars will be electric in 5 years from now.

A total shift to electric vehicles in less than 20 years sounds quite optimistic if I'm being honest. Not signing something you know you can't meet sounds like a fair choice.

_0ffh 5y ago

Absolutely, especially given the state of European electrical power production and grid, most of all Germany's. France at least has got the memo and is trying to do something about it, while Germany seems totally paralysed in this regard, which I doubt will improve with the coming administration.

emn13 5y ago
Nothing like a good winter of blackouts to... energize political momentum. Even this winter, clearly still pre-EV dominance, is going to be interesting - if it's cold in europe for long, and if Russia decides to use their current position of power for a nasty short-term shock, that could really shift people's willingness to accept a few sacrifices in the coming years. I wouldn't count them out just because they've got issues; those things might change quite quickly - some of the needed infrastructure can be built in just a few years, once the political will is there, which currently is lacking. Sure, it's a problem, but on this topic: what else is new.
_Microft 5y ago
What do you mean? I cannot remember the last time we actually had a power outage here. It is also not like we aren't working on making the grid ready for increased loads. A more known example for that is Suedlink that is meant to connect the wind farms in northern Germany to the south of it by moving 4GW of power (that's 5-10% of total power generation in Germany alone) over hundreds of kilometers.
- _0ffh 5y ago
  Progress on SuedLink is glacial and projected completion has been pushed back from 2022 to 2025 in 2016. Current estimates are between 2026 and 2028. Meanwhile the shutting down of the last nuclear power plants in Germany, the original reason for SuedLink, is on track to happen by the end of 2022. I am not impressed by the level of foresight on display here.

Skyy93 5y ago

The german car lobby tries something different: Why not using the combustion engine with clean sources of energy? I think its a rather clever choice to be against the end of the combustion engine when you can fuel them with something like: hydrogen, e-fuels or methanol. In Ingolstadt (Audi HQ is there) a former Audi engineer invented a car with 800 kilometres (500 miles). So there are alternatives to electric-only.

sterlind 5y ago
500 miles of range? You could get by making the fuel tank bigger. I assume you meant miles per gallon or something?
- Skyy93 5y ago
  Nope, 500 miles of range here the website link https://www.rolandgumpert.com/en/ https://www.rolandgumpert.com/en/ of course, this range is only correct with best circumstances, in practice it will be less
  - _ph_ 5y ago
    As far as I can see, this is a nice prototype but not a practical concept. This car is using a methanol fuel cell. They seem to be quite rare yet and not ready for mass production. And there is no mass production of green methanol yet. It would of course be much more storeable than hydrogen.
- jkepler 5y ago
  I routinely got 500+ miles range out of my diesel TDI Jetta... I believe it was a 2002.
  - fogihujy 5y ago
    My old Peugeot Partner (2003), can easily go 650 km with plenty of petrol left in the tank. I don't think 800 km would be out of the question. Edit: according to the specs, it should have a range of 960 km (597 miles) under optimal conditions. It sounds more than I would expect, but then the car is almost 20 years old. Still, the low fuel consumption is one of the reasons I keep it -- it uses less fuel than modern hybrids do.

DoingIsLearning 5y ago

I'm pretty sure it's phasing it out on new cars not completely replacing old ICEs. If anything I think 20 years is too long. Specially since these drafts always get diluted and things like hybrid motors are probably also going to be deemed 'electric'.

adrianN 5y ago
Yeah, 20 years is way too long. If the last ICE is sold in 2040, that car is likely still on the road in Germany in 2055 and is then sold to some poorer country where it will drive on for another ten years. How are we supposed to reach net-zero in 2045 like that?
- phicoh 5y ago
  One way would be to have a ban of exporting ICE cars after 2050.

marcyb5st 5y ago

Honestly I think it's doable. If the cost per kWh and the energy density of batteries follow the trend we currently have it will be much more convenient to own an EV. Some countries already banned the sale of ICE vehicles in less than 10y [1] if these conditions are met. The problem will be recharging in cities. In the suburbs/countryside it is very likely you can plug your car at night in your garage or similar. This is not true in cities since owning a parking spot with access to electricity is expensive. So, if cities will start putting plugs in "normal" parking spots I don't see any major issue in shifting completely to EV. [1] https://netherlandsnewslive.com/flanders-bans-the-sale-of-new-cars-with-a-combustion-engine-from-2029-car-2/278265/ https://netherlandsnewslive.com/flanders-bans-the-sale-of-ne...

fogihujy 5y ago
Total shift? No. It's possible for urban areas in developed countries, assuming we solve the current energy distribution issues. Nuclear is slowly getting back on the agenda, and renewables are slowly taking market share from fossil fuels, so that might actually happen if combined with massive upgrades to local and regional public transport systems. Even in places like the Nordic countries and Western Europe, massive infrastructure upgrades needs to be put in place to allow people in the rural areas to get rid of ICE's. And that's personal use. Getting forestry and agriculture to switch to electric will take many decades. We need synthetic fuels produced with renewable/nuclear energy, and we need them fast. Yes, EV's are nice and they will cover a lot of the use-cases, but they're not a silver bullet to end all worries.

_ph_ 5y ago

This isn't about banning ICE cars altogether, but about banning the sale of new ICE cars. Which should hopefully basically be achieved by 2030 or so, or we are screwed. And I think it is realistic. In the last month, about 17% of all new cars in Germany were electric. Sure that has been helped by low production due to chip shortages, but I really hope that the majority of all new cars will be electric in 5 years from now.