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Comparing YoY quarters especially during a pandemic is not really a very good methodology for determining market trends. Even when you add a qualifier like "giv

by greedo 5y ago

Comparing YoY quarters especially during a pandemic is not really a very good methodology for determining market trends. Even when you add a qualifier like "given these trajectories." Also, I think you're underestimating Tesla's competition by focusing on GM. Ford is a much larger threat to Tesla than GM, and already has an EV that's roughly comparable in price/performance to the Model Y. The Mustang Mach-E should be evaluated by any prospective EV buyer, and the F-150 Lightning has the potential to leave the Cybertruck stillborn. Rivian has none of the advantages of Tesla (name recognition, Supercharger network) nor none of the advantages of the traditional ICE manufacturers (volume, fit and finish, dealer network). Other than Amazon's backing, Rivian is one of the last companies I'd consider for buying an EV.

tinyhouse 5y ago
How many Ford sedans do you see on out there compared to Toyota/Subaru/Honda/etc? You know why? Shitty reputation. Transmission issues, class action lawsuits, etc. I'm looking to buy a car now and have a multiple friends who bought cars recently. None of use even looked at a Ford. We'll see if they can build their reputation in the EV space. (I assume they have a better reputation with pick up trucks)
- greedo 5y ago
  Ford dominates in trucks. The F-150 has been one of the best selling vehicles in North America for decades. And yes, Ford sedans suck, which is why Ford is focusing on Mustang (both the EV and the ICE) and SUVs.
eldaisfish 5y ago
people - especially on tech forums - have a tendency to underestimate the value of accumulated business knowledge. I'm glad you mentioned Ford and their electric pickup truck. Ford make a series of some of the most durable and best-selling pickup trucks the world over. Tesla, on the other hand, have zero experience building rugged vehicles and their teething troubles will be immense. Ford, meanwhile, have been building rugged vehicles for decades. I would argue Rivian's position is similar to Tesla's in that they don't have the level of know-how that Ford do. Despite all the justifications, i cannot see how Tesla's model will scale beyond developed markets.
- bink 5y ago
  I agree with you generally, but take a look at all the tech that Rivian has had to invent to get offroading right in an EV. The mechanical aspects of the drivetrain and suspension are very different than a traditional offroad vehicle. I think Ford will have less of an advantage than you think.
- panick21_ 5y ago
  You overestimate the difficulty. The real difficulty is not the individual unit, but the mass production. Many small startups have produced low volume of cars that are competitive. The truck itself is really not that magically complex as you assume. And Tesla has lots of experience with the most important parts like batteries and motors. Far more then Ford. What people here underestimate is actually the supply chain, specially of batteries while overestimating how difficult it is to make any individual truck.
panick21_ 5y ago
Ford until literally a few months ago believed that they could buy all required batteries on the open market. Literally their CEO was in 2020 claiming the market would just provide unlimited batteries. Their new CEO came in and realized the insanity and they are now copying what Tesla did in 2014. GM at least copied what Tesla did in 2014 in 2019 and they now have their own factory being finished right now. You can't just make a bunch of cars and say 'this low volume car proves X/Y'. These cars need supply chains. Ford own battery factories (with a partner) will not produce cells for multiple years and until then they have to buy very limited open supply that is heavily contested. In comparison Tesla is building its own cells literally in the same building as the Cybertruck. They are vertically integrating into cathode and anode production as well. > F-150 Lightning has the potential to leave the Cybertruck stillborn Delusional. Look at their own projections for F-150 Lighting sales. Both Ford and Tesla will sell every truck they can produce, that is not really questionable. There is LITERALLY 0 chance Ford can produce enough to cover demand. Tesla will be in a position to produce far more Cybertrucks, they literally have battery production in the same building and they have been working on battery supply chain for a decade. They are by far the largest consumer of lithium batteries on the planet. Cybertruck will outsell F-150 for a long time.

by greedo 5y ago

tinyhouse 5y ago

How many Ford sedans do you see on out there compared to Toyota/Subaru/Honda/etc? You know why? Shitty reputation. Transmission issues, class action lawsuits, etc. I'm looking to buy a car now and have a multiple friends who bought cars recently. None of use even looked at a Ford. We'll see if they can build their reputation in the EV space. (I assume they have a better reputation with pick up trucks)

greedo 5y ago
Ford dominates in trucks. The F-150 has been one of the best selling vehicles in North America for decades. And yes, Ford sedans suck, which is why Ford is focusing on Mustang (both the EV and the ICE) and SUVs.

eldaisfish 5y ago

people - especially on tech forums - have a tendency to underestimate the value of accumulated business knowledge. I'm glad you mentioned Ford and their electric pickup truck. Ford make a series of some of the most durable and best-selling pickup trucks the world over. Tesla, on the other hand, have zero experience building rugged vehicles and their teething troubles will be immense. Ford, meanwhile, have been building rugged vehicles for decades. I would argue Rivian's position is similar to Tesla's in that they don't have the level of know-how that Ford do. Despite all the justifications, i cannot see how Tesla's model will scale beyond developed markets.

bink 5y ago
I agree with you generally, but take a look at all the tech that Rivian has had to invent to get offroading right in an EV. The mechanical aspects of the drivetrain and suspension are very different than a traditional offroad vehicle. I think Ford will have less of an advantage than you think.
panick21_ 5y ago
You overestimate the difficulty. The real difficulty is not the individual unit, but the mass production. Many small startups have produced low volume of cars that are competitive. The truck itself is really not that magically complex as you assume. And Tesla has lots of experience with the most important parts like batteries and motors. Far more then Ford. What people here underestimate is actually the supply chain, specially of batteries while overestimating how difficult it is to make any individual truck.

panick21_ 5y ago

Ford until literally a few months ago believed that they could buy all required batteries on the open market. Literally their CEO was in 2020 claiming the market would just provide unlimited batteries. Their new CEO came in and realized the insanity and they are now copying what Tesla did in 2014. GM at least copied what Tesla did in 2014 in 2019 and they now have their own factory being finished right now. You can't just make a bunch of cars and say 'this low volume car proves X/Y'. These cars need supply chains. Ford own battery factories (with a partner) will not produce cells for multiple years and until then they have to buy very limited open supply that is heavily contested. In comparison Tesla is building its own cells literally in the same building as the Cybertruck. They are vertically integrating into cathode and anode production as well. > F-150 Lightning has the potential to leave the Cybertruck stillborn Delusional. Look at their own projections for F-150 Lighting sales. Both Ford and Tesla will sell every truck they can produce, that is not really questionable. There is LITERALLY 0 chance Ford can produce enough to cover demand. Tesla will be in a position to produce far more Cybertrucks, they literally have battery production in the same building and they have been working on battery supply chain for a decade. They are by far the largest consumer of lithium batteries on the planet. Cybertruck will outsell F-150 for a long time.