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Which will remain the United States as the sole superpower. China does not have a blue-water navy and won't for another decade+, which means they cannot regulat

by boc 5y ago

Which will remain the United States as the sole superpower. China does not have a blue-water navy and won't for another decade+, which means they cannot regulate oil shipping routes worldwide like the USN. Russia can't project naval power outside their region. The entire EU collectively doesn't have close to the naval power that the US does, and does not have the resources to keep routes open. The petrodollar is The Prize the US receives for being willing to enforce global shipping lanes across the world's oceans. Without that overwhelming force, things rapidly collapse as Iran shuts the Strait of Hormuz.

wbsss4412 5y ago
Which is why I didn’t say I expected the system to be imminent danger of collapse. Someday? Probably. Now? Unlikely.
wayoutthere 5y ago
All of which only really matters to those of us on this side of the ocean. China doesn’t need to project naval power, they project economic and political power due to being physically closer and a large exporter. Belt and road is their method for controlling the transport of goods. They can get oil/gas from Russia and the Middle East over land via trucks and pipelines. Which is why I think the next 10 years will display how little control the US military is able to exert. 20 years of pointless war have ground the US military into dusty incompetence. Do we want to protect Taiwan or our access to the Persian Gulf? We may only be able to keep one of them.
- boc 5y ago
  First off, oil is a global commodity, so it's not true that you can just isolate yourself from global price movements. Second, how many soldiers in the Chinese PLA or PLAN have ever fired a weapon against a hostile force? The US has spent the better part of two decades in an active war environment. For better or worse, there's value to having actual experience with large-scale invasions. It's not being "ground into dusty incompetence", it's being battle-tested. Third, the US military doctrine since WWII has been about fighting two wars at once. We can certainly protect Taiwan and the Persian Gulf at the same time. If we couldn't, then any intervention wouldn't be credible because the second we invade a nation, all other strategic objectives would be at risk.

by boc 5y ago

wbsss4412 5y ago

Which is why I didn’t say I expected the system to be imminent danger of collapse. Someday? Probably. Now? Unlikely.

wayoutthere 5y ago

All of which only really matters to those of us on this side of the ocean. China doesn’t need to project naval power, they project economic and political power due to being physically closer and a large exporter. Belt and road is their method for controlling the transport of goods. They can get oil/gas from Russia and the Middle East over land via trucks and pipelines. Which is why I think the next 10 years will display how little control the US military is able to exert. 20 years of pointless war have ground the US military into dusty incompetence. Do we want to protect Taiwan or our access to the Persian Gulf? We may only be able to keep one of them.

boc 5y ago
First off, oil is a global commodity, so it's not true that you can just isolate yourself from global price movements. Second, how many soldiers in the Chinese PLA or PLAN have ever fired a weapon against a hostile force? The US has spent the better part of two decades in an active war environment. For better or worse, there's value to having actual experience with large-scale invasions. It's not being "ground into dusty incompetence", it's being battle-tested. Third, the US military doctrine since WWII has been about fighting two wars at once. We can certainly protect Taiwan and the Persian Gulf at the same time. If we couldn't, then any intervention wouldn't be credible because the second we invade a nation, all other strategic objectives would be at risk.