4 ms·

I read the S-1--it's one of the worst I've ever seen, to be honest. Rivian has no strategy whatsoever. Their FleetOS is 100% built to Amazon's spec. If Amazon w

I read the S-1--it's one of the worst I've ever seen, to be honest. Rivian has no strategy whatsoever. Their FleetOS is 100% built to Amazon's spec. If Amazon were to withdraw support for any reason, they would have invested billions in the truck/software R&D only to have basically no one to sell to.

dragontamer 5y ago
Why would Amazon crash a company that they own 20% of? Rivian is basically Amazon's baby, roughly worth $20 Billion at this IPO price.
- mym1990 5y ago
  It really wouldn't be the first time that a company shuts down a 'baby'. 20% of 20 billion for Amazon is literally pocket change.
  - louissm_it 5y ago
    The 20% is (according to the IPO atleast) worth 20 billion dollars, not 20% of 20 billion dollars.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    Rivian is right now worth $100+ Billion. 20% of which is $20 Billion, and is Amazon's stake.
    - mym1990 5y ago
      I think 20 billion is still pocket change for a company with a 1.8T market cap. And if Amazon did want to divest, they would likely just sell instead of taking a full loss.
      - dragontamer 5y ago
        Market cap? No one uses market cap when talking about dollars in this manner. I'd argue shareholder equity is the more reasonable metric. Amazon has 320-Billion in assets and 100-billion in liabilities. That means a CEO looks at Amazon and sees the $320 Billion it can use for operations (which includes all of Amazon's properties, warehouses, equipment, etc. etc.), and the $100 Billion Amazon owes other companies (ie: liabilities). So $220 Billion total equity. That means that this Rivian stake is literally 10% of Amazon's equity. That's no small percent by any stretch of the imagination.
- Invictus0 5y ago
  If this company is still worth that much in 2025, the year Amazon is expected to have received all the trucks, I will eat my hat.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    Sure. But that doesn't change the fact that Amazon, as a company, clearly likes to vertically integrate and build its own stuff (be it servers, warehouses, or even its own distribution system). Amazon used to rely upon USPS, FedEx, UPS. But what did it do? It built its own. Similarly, Amazon is now looking at the cars it bought for its delivery service, and clearly wants to vertically integrate, by help creating the Rivian company to make those new cars. The valuation may be stupid, but the business plan is solid. Bow down before Amazon, build cars exactly to Amazon's specifications in a way other manufactures cannot... and get Amazon's money. I don't think this business plan is worth $100 Billion, but it sounds like a fundamentally good business plan at its core.

dragontamer 5y ago

Why would Amazon crash a company that they own 20% of? Rivian is basically Amazon's baby, roughly worth $20 Billion at this IPO price.

mym1990 5y ago
It really wouldn't be the first time that a company shuts down a 'baby'. 20% of 20 billion for Amazon is literally pocket change.
- louissm_it 5y ago
  The 20% is (according to the IPO atleast) worth 20 billion dollars, not 20% of 20 billion dollars.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  Rivian is right now worth $100+ Billion. 20% of which is $20 Billion, and is Amazon's stake.
  - mym1990 5y ago
    I think 20 billion is still pocket change for a company with a 1.8T market cap. And if Amazon did want to divest, they would likely just sell instead of taking a full loss.
    - dragontamer 5y ago
      Market cap? No one uses market cap when talking about dollars in this manner. I'd argue shareholder equity is the more reasonable metric. Amazon has 320-Billion in assets and 100-billion in liabilities. That means a CEO looks at Amazon and sees the $320 Billion it can use for operations (which includes all of Amazon's properties, warehouses, equipment, etc. etc.), and the $100 Billion Amazon owes other companies (ie: liabilities). So $220 Billion total equity. That means that this Rivian stake is literally 10% of Amazon's equity. That's no small percent by any stretch of the imagination.
Invictus0 5y ago
If this company is still worth that much in 2025, the year Amazon is expected to have received all the trucks, I will eat my hat.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  Sure. But that doesn't change the fact that Amazon, as a company, clearly likes to vertically integrate and build its own stuff (be it servers, warehouses, or even its own distribution system). Amazon used to rely upon USPS, FedEx, UPS. But what did it do? It built its own. Similarly, Amazon is now looking at the cars it bought for its delivery service, and clearly wants to vertically integrate, by help creating the Rivian company to make those new cars. The valuation may be stupid, but the business plan is solid. Bow down before Amazon, build cars exactly to Amazon's specifications in a way other manufactures cannot... and get Amazon's money. I don't think this business plan is worth $100 Billion, but it sounds like a fundamentally good business plan at its core.