3 ms·

> the shift to enterprise suggests they're out of ideas Pretty sure its just the way to profit off of all types of users, keep cash flow coming and grow the bu

> the shift to enterprise suggests they're out of ideas Pretty sure its just the way to profit off of all types of users, keep cash flow coming and grow the business. When their app store faces anti-trust, and everyone already has an iphone and the next igadget is 5 years away, how do you generate growth?

numbsafari 5y ago
Agreed. They have been leaving a mountain of money on the table by not offering this, or a competitor for Google Workspace.
- frankfrankfrank 5y ago
  It could actually be a play for far bigger, the mountain of money that is now largely dominated by Microsoft in ALL establishment corporations and governments. Think of being able to run your whole network and equipment with a mere fraction of the IT and network personnel that it now takes to run a Windows based environment.
  - _carbyau_ 5y ago
    Well, yes and no. Some innovation in this space will be much welcomed and may well lead to the "mere fraction". But right now in almost every IT office, if you could get rid of the right 50% of people, the remaining 50% would keep things running without missing a beat. The trick is doing that. Also, right now in the corporate space, virtual machines are popular for server and workstation environments. Apple hasn't dipped a toe in that space yet. Maybe as more business software go towards web and BYODevice becomes a thing Apple could gain traction.
- vineyardmike 5y ago
  > a competitor for Google Workspace. I think this is their obvious next move. They just launched iCloud email with custom domains for end users. That seems like an early battle-test for enterprise use cases. They already have alternative software to google docs too, so it could be an easy business to set up.
  - numbsafari 5y ago
    Completely agree. I think they have been slowly making moves into this space over the last 4-5 years (probably longer, but slowly gaining momentum in that time). I think my read on the new custom domain support is the same as yours. It's clearly a limited beta without the label. They are moving at a snails pace, but a lot of the pieces are there. Numbers is just garbage, though. If they want to seriously play in the docs space, they need to fix it. They also need a simple database solution. They've got Claris, and could bring that to the table if they wanted. Apple also has a serious reputation problem when it comes to reliability in this space. Personally, as excited as I am about all this, I'm hesitant based on their track record.
    - vineyardmike 5y ago
      > they need to fix it. They also need a simple database solution I actually disagree. (improvements are always welcome though). There are so many different products in this space from MSFT to Google Docs, Quip, Confluence, Notion, etc. They're never going to actually make stuff for everyone. Their move should just be to handle the licenses. My work buys all MSFT products, yet most people use quip docs instead. But we also pay for google docs, and confluence. Most places probs use more than one redundant tool, so you just need a "good enough" bundled-in tool. If they can handle licenses and sales of the software, they can continue to collect their apple tax even if their app store gets trust-busted in the future. This can be a way to preserve app store revenue. Especially since businesses are whales compared to regular consumers.
threeseed 5y ago
> When their app store faces anti-trust They have already faced the courts over the App Store. They won. > how do you generate growth? Through new devices eg. Watch, AirPods, AR/VR Headset. And most importantly through Services eg. AppleTV+, News+, Music+ You should look at Apples balance sheet. Far more diversified than most people realise.
- vineyardmike 5y ago
  > They won. They won, in america... for now. They have (a) a global business with other nations less inclined to side with them and (b) a likely chance of legislature targeted at them. The odds of a future decline in margins of the app store seem high. New laws in Korea and Japan are going to slowly erode the edges, and allow businesses to tests alternatives. The Epic trial may now allow link-out to payments with latest court docs. And EU is a big market that could easily turn against them with new laws. > Through new devices The best new devices can do now is replace existing ones people own, most people who want and can afford apple devices own them. New product catagories are a few years away. > And most importantly through Services Like the service they just launched, targeted at enterprise? > You should look at Apples balance sheet. Far more diversified than most people realise. I do financial analysis, and attend their earnings calls. You're right, it is very diverse, but the non-services revenues don't seem poised to see strong growth in next few years unless they launch a new (and successful) product category.
motohagiography 5y ago
> When their app store faces anti-trust, and everyone already has an iphone and the next igadget is 5 years away, how do you generate growth? I'd suggest this is the definition of being out of ideas, as the way they grew last time was they invented the iPhone, and then the iPod, and then the Airbook, Apple Watch, and AirPods. Then there was the mini tracking device to help you believe every other product wasn't already a tracking device. Imo, the negative inflection point was the AppleTV launch where it was just a bunch of celebrities, and for Cook to stay at the helm, he needs to deliver a Jobs level win. Enterprise may be his "second envelope," as I think it's a safety play. Reframing your question as, what can they re-invent next? That's hard to answer without being that level of design thinker. Cook's team is designing products for a very different world than the one Jobs did. The aesthetics, aspirations, and even power means different things now, as they say, what got us here doesn't get us where we need to go next. The enterprise product is going to be huge revenue wise, but innovation wise, I think it's treading water. Maybe the smartest thing to do is to turn Apple into a company that doesn't need to run on genius anymore, and fork a design driven ventures division with a mission to get exposure to early stage brilliance instead. What Jobs did was bring artists to tech, but that whole play was predicated on a bohemian/creative class that doesn't matter the same way anymore because their rarity and scarcity was an artifact of geography that is no longer a factor. This bringing something from one place to another aspect of Jobs' vision (and cultural arbitrage) breaks down when that physical distance is no longer meaningful. The distance to bridge with products now is intellectual, educational, cultural, political, etc, and maybe we don't want it bridged now, maybe what we desire is that distance again. The next iPhone level innovation won't be a signifier of joining the middle class of that time, it will be either a barrier to it, or an escape from it.
- vineyardmike 5y ago
  i largely agree with your points. I think the ousting (quitting?) of Ives is a sign that apple as an aesthetic force is ending, and the return to "logical" macs instead is a sign that they're reverting going too far. Its an acknowledgement that they have to do more than make pretty devices. I see a very similar path to luxury car brands for luxury electronics. A mix of status, comfort and performance. I wouldn't be surprised if the "pro"/"pro-sumer" line of devices diverges even more into the future so that we have $2k iPhones. Similar to how car companies have $200k+ cars, and $75k+ cars that effectively don't compete with each other and let them invest in more expensive efforts, that serve as flagships. Alternatively, go the racing-car route, and invest in high-end engineering efforts that way. This could be similar to your "forking" idea in that they get exposure without subjecting it to mass scale.

numbsafari 5y ago

Agreed. They have been leaving a mountain of money on the table by not offering this, or a competitor for Google Workspace.

frankfrankfrank 5y ago
It could actually be a play for far bigger, the mountain of money that is now largely dominated by Microsoft in ALL establishment corporations and governments. Think of being able to run your whole network and equipment with a mere fraction of the IT and network personnel that it now takes to run a Windows based environment.
- _carbyau_ 5y ago
  Well, yes and no. Some innovation in this space will be much welcomed and may well lead to the "mere fraction". But right now in almost every IT office, if you could get rid of the right 50% of people, the remaining 50% would keep things running without missing a beat. The trick is doing that. Also, right now in the corporate space, virtual machines are popular for server and workstation environments. Apple hasn't dipped a toe in that space yet. Maybe as more business software go towards web and BYODevice becomes a thing Apple could gain traction.
vineyardmike 5y ago
> a competitor for Google Workspace. I think this is their obvious next move. They just launched iCloud email with custom domains for end users. That seems like an early battle-test for enterprise use cases. They already have alternative software to google docs too, so it could be an easy business to set up.
- numbsafari 5y ago
  Completely agree. I think they have been slowly making moves into this space over the last 4-5 years (probably longer, but slowly gaining momentum in that time). I think my read on the new custom domain support is the same as yours. It's clearly a limited beta without the label. They are moving at a snails pace, but a lot of the pieces are there. Numbers is just garbage, though. If they want to seriously play in the docs space, they need to fix it. They also need a simple database solution. They've got Claris, and could bring that to the table if they wanted. Apple also has a serious reputation problem when it comes to reliability in this space. Personally, as excited as I am about all this, I'm hesitant based on their track record.
  - vineyardmike 5y ago
    > they need to fix it. They also need a simple database solution I actually disagree. (improvements are always welcome though). There are so many different products in this space from MSFT to Google Docs, Quip, Confluence, Notion, etc. They're never going to actually make stuff for everyone. Their move should just be to handle the licenses. My work buys all MSFT products, yet most people use quip docs instead. But we also pay for google docs, and confluence. Most places probs use more than one redundant tool, so you just need a "good enough" bundled-in tool. If they can handle licenses and sales of the software, they can continue to collect their apple tax even if their app store gets trust-busted in the future. This can be a way to preserve app store revenue. Especially since businesses are whales compared to regular consumers.

threeseed 5y ago

> When their app store faces anti-trust They have already faced the courts over the App Store. They won. > how do you generate growth? Through new devices eg. Watch, AirPods, AR/VR Headset. And most importantly through Services eg. AppleTV+, News+, Music+ You should look at Apples balance sheet. Far more diversified than most people realise.

vineyardmike 5y ago
> They won. They won, in america... for now. They have (a) a global business with other nations less inclined to side with them and (b) a likely chance of legislature targeted at them. The odds of a future decline in margins of the app store seem high. New laws in Korea and Japan are going to slowly erode the edges, and allow businesses to tests alternatives. The Epic trial may now allow link-out to payments with latest court docs. And EU is a big market that could easily turn against them with new laws. > Through new devices The best new devices can do now is replace existing ones people own, most people who want and can afford apple devices own them. New product catagories are a few years away. > And most importantly through Services Like the service they just launched, targeted at enterprise? > You should look at Apples balance sheet. Far more diversified than most people realise. I do financial analysis, and attend their earnings calls. You're right, it is very diverse, but the non-services revenues don't seem poised to see strong growth in next few years unless they launch a new (and successful) product category.

motohagiography 5y ago

> When their app store faces anti-trust, and everyone already has an iphone and the next igadget is 5 years away, how do you generate growth? I'd suggest this is the definition of being out of ideas, as the way they grew last time was they invented the iPhone, and then the iPod, and then the Airbook, Apple Watch, and AirPods. Then there was the mini tracking device to help you believe every other product wasn't already a tracking device. Imo, the negative inflection point was the AppleTV launch where it was just a bunch of celebrities, and for Cook to stay at the helm, he needs to deliver a Jobs level win. Enterprise may be his "second envelope," as I think it's a safety play. Reframing your question as, what can they re-invent next? That's hard to answer without being that level of design thinker. Cook's team is designing products for a very different world than the one Jobs did. The aesthetics, aspirations, and even power means different things now, as they say, what got us here doesn't get us where we need to go next. The enterprise product is going to be huge revenue wise, but innovation wise, I think it's treading water. Maybe the smartest thing to do is to turn Apple into a company that doesn't need to run on genius anymore, and fork a design driven ventures division with a mission to get exposure to early stage brilliance instead. What Jobs did was bring artists to tech, but that whole play was predicated on a bohemian/creative class that doesn't matter the same way anymore because their rarity and scarcity was an artifact of geography that is no longer a factor. This bringing something from one place to another aspect of Jobs' vision (and cultural arbitrage) breaks down when that physical distance is no longer meaningful. The distance to bridge with products now is intellectual, educational, cultural, political, etc, and maybe we don't want it bridged now, maybe what we desire is that distance again. The next iPhone level innovation won't be a signifier of joining the middle class of that time, it will be either a barrier to it, or an escape from it.

vineyardmike 5y ago
i largely agree with your points. I think the ousting (quitting?) of Ives is a sign that apple as an aesthetic force is ending, and the return to "logical" macs instead is a sign that they're reverting going too far. Its an acknowledgement that they have to do more than make pretty devices. I see a very similar path to luxury car brands for luxury electronics. A mix of status, comfort and performance. I wouldn't be surprised if the "pro"/"pro-sumer" line of devices diverges even more into the future so that we have $2k iPhones. Similar to how car companies have $200k+ cars, and $75k+ cars that effectively don't compete with each other and let them invest in more expensive efforts, that serve as flagships. Alternatively, go the racing-car route, and invest in high-end engineering efforts that way. This could be similar to your "forking" idea in that they get exposure without subjecting it to mass scale.