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It's Lehman-like in that I don't think China will be bailing anyone out. It's not Lehman-like in that the company isn't a tangled octopus in the middle of the

by chalst 5y ago

It's Lehman-like in that I don't think China will be bailing anyone out. It's not Lehman-like in that the company isn't a tangled octopus in the middle of the financial system. Lots of investors exposed to developing markets will get burned, but I don't think the knock-on effects will be huge.

WhisperingShiba 5y ago
I think the complicating factor is that the Chinese housing market is where the people of China attempt to have savings. A major housing market panic in China could create a lot of despair and unrest in China.
- jjoonathan 5y ago
  Which would challenge CCP legitimacy, which would push the CCP to rely on the time tested tactic of blaming someone else and going to war over it. I really, really hope I'm wrong about that.
  - WhisperingShiba 5y ago
    Most people in the world do not actually want war. I'm quite confident that, while we have not evolved past being mean to each other and dumb scarcity mindsets, that the average person knows that any warfare is bad for them.
  - whimsicalism 5y ago
    The CCP has a long way to fall - it is much more popular among its populace than our government is and we aren't seeing substantial armed rebellion here yet. The dynamic in China is that the central government is overwhelmingly popular and the local governments are more derided.
    - stickfigure 5y ago
      Eh? We just voted the guys in charge out last year. No need for armed rebellion, but same results. What happens in China when public sentiment shifts is anyone's guess.
      - chalst 5y ago
        It used to be the case that the CCP was decentralised: the regions had their own parties that were not ideologically answerable to the central party. Then, popular unrest could lead to the leader losing support of the regions, which could lead to the leader being deposed. Mao liked it this way, because his popularity in the regions strengthened him against his enemies in the central party. I don't really follow the minutia of today's politics in China, but my impression is that Xi has taken away power from the regions. If so, then this former route for change may have been blocked.

by chalst 5y ago

WhisperingShiba 5y ago

I think the complicating factor is that the Chinese housing market is where the people of China attempt to have savings. A major housing market panic in China could create a lot of despair and unrest in China.

jjoonathan 5y ago
Which would challenge CCP legitimacy, which would push the CCP to rely on the time tested tactic of blaming someone else and going to war over it. I really, really hope I'm wrong about that.
- WhisperingShiba 5y ago
  Most people in the world do not actually want war. I'm quite confident that, while we have not evolved past being mean to each other and dumb scarcity mindsets, that the average person knows that any warfare is bad for them.
- whimsicalism 5y ago
  The CCP has a long way to fall - it is much more popular among its populace than our government is and we aren't seeing substantial armed rebellion here yet. The dynamic in China is that the central government is overwhelmingly popular and the local governments are more derided.
  - stickfigure 5y ago
    Eh? We just voted the guys in charge out last year. No need for armed rebellion, but same results. What happens in China when public sentiment shifts is anyone's guess.
    - chalst 5y ago
      It used to be the case that the CCP was decentralised: the regions had their own parties that were not ideologically answerable to the central party. Then, popular unrest could lead to the leader losing support of the regions, which could lead to the leader being deposed. Mao liked it this way, because his popularity in the regions strengthened him against his enemies in the central party. I don't really follow the minutia of today's politics in China, but my impression is that Xi has taken away power from the regions. If so, then this former route for change may have been blocked.