I feel like it's Feb 2020 and people are just hearing about this new virus called 2019-nCoV (or alternatively "China Flu"). There are maybe 100 cases in the wh

I feel like it's Feb 2020 and people are just hearing about this new virus called 2019-nCoV (or alternatively "China Flu"). There are maybe 100 cases in the whole U.S, your chance of getting it is literally 1 in a million, and nobody has died from it yet. Tech companies are shutting down left and right and the general public is like "What's the big deal?" The big deal is exponential growth, which both viral spread and inflation exhibit and which almost nobody has a good intuition for. 1.5% inflation over 10 years means that prices go up 16%; this is what most folks (outside of Silicon Valley) have experienced in recent memory. 5% inflation over 10 years means that prices go up 63%. Your Big Mac will cost $6.50 instead of $4. 20% inflation (like we've seen in housing, or ground beef) means that prices go up 6x. Your average house will be $2M rather than $300K. Folks who look at the numbers and say we're doomed are plugging the data into a mental model of inflation, government debt, and the money supply and realizing that the logical conclusion is that the dollar is going to go to zero soon. Folks who look at the numbers and say there's nothing to worry about are looking at the numbers today.