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There are a lot of ‘if’s’ in the world. In the context of this conversation it was pretty clear that this if was indicating some level of real likelihood. My po

There are a lot of ‘if’s’ in the world. In the context of this conversation it was pretty clear that this if was indicating some level of real likelihood. My point was that it just isn’t likely at all. No more than it was before this year anyway.

lazide 5y ago
We’ve got one large ‘once in a century’ shock going on now. Bretton woods was less than a century ago. I don’t know how we would even quantify in any real what odds on any of these events practically speaking. Do you?
- wbsss4412 5y ago
  This isn’t even the biggest inflation shock in the last 50 years. A lot of the inflation we are seeing is due to base effects from last year. Oil prices literally went negative at one point and are only back to pre fracking boom levels.
  - lazide 5y ago
    The last shock in the 70’s caused large scale socio economic changes and power shifts, and the ‘currency’ was brand ‘new’ at the time (less than 20 years since Bretton Woods, still riding high on post WW2 prosperity, etc) The demand collapse and now demand spike we’re seeing only started occurring very recently (less than 6 months ago for the spike), and we don’t know what will happen. We’ve never had anything like it occur in a modern economy at this scale. So probably not going to end the world or anything, but we really don’t have any precedent for this situation.
    - wbsss4412 5y ago
      The situation is absolutely unprecedented and it’s going to be a real challenge for policymakers to get the balance right. In retrospect, some level of inflation was going to be inevitable. The question is how to balance it with employment and growth going forward.
      - lazide 5y ago
        Agreed. A big question in everyone’s mind i think is if this is ‘permanent’ inflation ‘catching up’ from all the QE and money printing/stimulus, or a temporary spike as pent up demand from the drop last year unblocks and rushes for the door, and will subside afterwards as the larger deflationary (consumer price wise) trend continues afterwards. I personally suspect it will be a 70’s style ‘step’ (down related to buying power of a given dollar, probably not visible in relation to other currencies though, and up in prices), albeit without a strong hike in interest rates that happened under Carter and caused really weird other effects. They didn’t have the overall consumer price deflation due to tech and global trade like we’ve had for awhile now. It would be nice to have a crystal ball, but alas.

lazide 5y ago

We’ve got one large ‘once in a century’ shock going on now. Bretton woods was less than a century ago. I don’t know how we would even quantify in any real what odds on any of these events practically speaking. Do you?

wbsss4412 5y ago
This isn’t even the biggest inflation shock in the last 50 years. A lot of the inflation we are seeing is due to base effects from last year. Oil prices literally went negative at one point and are only back to pre fracking boom levels.
- lazide 5y ago
  The last shock in the 70’s caused large scale socio economic changes and power shifts, and the ‘currency’ was brand ‘new’ at the time (less than 20 years since Bretton Woods, still riding high on post WW2 prosperity, etc) The demand collapse and now demand spike we’re seeing only started occurring very recently (less than 6 months ago for the spike), and we don’t know what will happen. We’ve never had anything like it occur in a modern economy at this scale. So probably not going to end the world or anything, but we really don’t have any precedent for this situation.
  - wbsss4412 5y ago
    The situation is absolutely unprecedented and it’s going to be a real challenge for policymakers to get the balance right. In retrospect, some level of inflation was going to be inevitable. The question is how to balance it with employment and growth going forward.
    - lazide 5y ago
      Agreed. A big question in everyone’s mind i think is if this is ‘permanent’ inflation ‘catching up’ from all the QE and money printing/stimulus, or a temporary spike as pent up demand from the drop last year unblocks and rushes for the door, and will subside afterwards as the larger deflationary (consumer price wise) trend continues afterwards. I personally suspect it will be a 70’s style ‘step’ (down related to buying power of a given dollar, probably not visible in relation to other currencies though, and up in prices), albeit without a strong hike in interest rates that happened under Carter and caused really weird other effects. They didn’t have the overall consumer price deflation due to tech and global trade like we’ve had for awhile now. It would be nice to have a crystal ball, but alas.