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> I recommend people focus on the long term trends rather than looking at outliers to predict the future. Both short and long term trends are important. Short
by lmilcin 5y ago
> I recommend people focus on the long term trends rather than looking at outliers to predict the future.
Both short and long term trends are important. Short term trends help us understand current situation that is different from what was happening maybe a year ago. If you only look at long terms you are blind to a lot of important processes.
- arberx 5y agoOutlier
- lmilcin 5y agoWell, you could say that current political situation in US is an outlier. Nothing to worry about, US has had a stable democracy for centuries, the recent data is just abnormal and can be ignored.
- arberx 5y agoIt's an outlier until it isn't. If the trend continues then you can argue for normality.
- lmilcin 5y agoSo I understand you say that general price increase is just a statistical fluke. A lot of business owners decided to increase their prices for no underlying, common reason? The fact is understanding the common underlying reason for the price increase is very valuable and that is why we measure short term inflation. Would you prefer the government wait now and ignored the situation until later when it is going to be more difficult to deal with it? I thought most people usually argue the other way and claim governments are too slow to react.