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> 31.1% more people said they would buy in one experiment As has been shown countless times in both theory and practice, this metric is useless. People are ver

> 31.1% more people said they would buy in one experiment As has been shown countless times in both theory and practice, this metric is useless. People are very liberal in saying the would buy things, support causes, etc. The actual number of people who do buy is completely unrelated to this say-they-would-buy metric. Similarly, having people who say they would buy your startup's product is worth nil. The only customers that count are the actual customers, the ones that do buy.

ciphol 5y ago
Luckily the internet is a big place, and it's easy to run experiments where you show half the people one version of the site and half the people the other version, and see who buys more.
albert_e 5y ago
MBA marketing taught us : A product's DEMAND is the ask for a product backed by the ability (& willingness) to PAY.
sailingparrot 5y ago
It’s a bad metric if you are trying to quantify a market. It’s a good metric here, where he is comparing options. In this case actual conversion rate (between people that say they would, and those that actually would) doesn’t matter, and there is no reason to believe it would vary significantly between the two options. So provided the sample size is big enough I think it’s a perfectly valid metric.
- esrauch 5y ago
  I don't really follow your assumptions; surely it might be that the same people influenced by this are also people who would never have converted or always have converted? In which case the measured effect is not relevant to any actual business decision?
  - sailingparrot 5y ago
    My bad I have clarified my comment, this was confusing. By conversion rate I was talking about the ratio between people that say they would buy, and people that would actually buy. I’m sure there is a better term for that.
mc32 5y ago
Sold out is very frustrating if it was my first choice. Usually it means I'll go with my second choice (sometimes a competitor's product) because often I cannot wait till the item is re-stocked. Other times if it's more an impulse item, it means I get 'cool down' time and realize I don't actually need it and forgo the purchase.
- ajsnigrutin 5y ago
  yep, or just not buy the item. I especially hate it when they don't have a single item (eg. a pair of socks), but they have a "3-pack", and when the item arrives, it's actually three individual single packs, that they didn't want to sell separately.
- dkersten 5y ago
  Agreed. Its incredibly rare that I've waited to buy a sold-out item. I either buy a competitors, or I lose interest and decide I don't care enough. I can't actually think of a case, off hand, where I did wait, although I'm sure its happened at some point. I either want the thing at that time point, in which case I will look for an alternative because waiting won't get me the thing at that time point, or if its not important enough or I don't want it enough to want it right away, then I don't buy and usually I either get less interested as I wait, priorities shift or I just forget about it. For example, a PS5: I would have bought one on release, if I could have. Had the money set aside for it. But I couldn't get one and about two months later, I lost interest, cancelled my reservation and spent the money on something else and have decided there are other things I want more before I get one, such as a new guitar. Maybe in a few years I'll get one. Maybe. If I can get one cheap.
toddmatthews 5y ago
no means no, maybe means no, yes means maybe
dkersten 5y ago
Reminds me of Rob Fitzpatrick's customer development talks: ask a potential customer if they would buy your product and they're all positive yes, definitely. Go, ok, lets do it, whip out a credit card machine and listen to all the excuses they come up with why they can't do it right now.
- JoeAltmaier 5y ago
  A credit card machine! I remember those - you secure the card under a clip, put carbon paper form on top, run a little roller on a track across... I can still hear the sound it made in my head, would recognize it instantly if I heard it across a room. Nostalgia.
  - dkersten 5y ago
    I actually was thinking of one of those little devices that talks to your phone over bluetooth when I wrote that, but I actually remember the carbon paper ones too! Used to use one when I worked as a street trader (jewelery stall in a touristy part of town) as a student.
caseysoftware 5y ago
Yes, most "Would" questions are absolutely worthless: > "Finally, the word “would” taps into a special place in people’s minds. At the end of the day people are optimistic. I’m sure of it! Think of the most negative person you know and ask them “would you like to be healthier?” They will say “Yes” and then come up with a bunch of reasons they’re not." My post: https://caseysoftware.com/blog/the-problem-with-would https://caseysoftware.com/blog/the-problem-with-would

ciphol 5y ago

Luckily the internet is a big place, and it's easy to run experiments where you show half the people one version of the site and half the people the other version, and see who buys more.

albert_e 5y ago

MBA marketing taught us : A product's DEMAND is the ask for a product backed by the ability (& willingness) to PAY.

sailingparrot 5y ago

It’s a bad metric if you are trying to quantify a market. It’s a good metric here, where he is comparing options. In this case actual conversion rate (between people that say they would, and those that actually would) doesn’t matter, and there is no reason to believe it would vary significantly between the two options. So provided the sample size is big enough I think it’s a perfectly valid metric.

esrauch 5y ago
I don't really follow your assumptions; surely it might be that the same people influenced by this are also people who would never have converted or always have converted? In which case the measured effect is not relevant to any actual business decision?
- sailingparrot 5y ago
  My bad I have clarified my comment, this was confusing. By conversion rate I was talking about the ratio between people that say they would buy, and people that would actually buy. I’m sure there is a better term for that.

mc32 5y ago

Sold out is very frustrating if it was my first choice. Usually it means I'll go with my second choice (sometimes a competitor's product) because often I cannot wait till the item is re-stocked. Other times if it's more an impulse item, it means I get 'cool down' time and realize I don't actually need it and forgo the purchase.

ajsnigrutin 5y ago
yep, or just not buy the item. I especially hate it when they don't have a single item (eg. a pair of socks), but they have a "3-pack", and when the item arrives, it's actually three individual single packs, that they didn't want to sell separately.
dkersten 5y ago
Agreed. Its incredibly rare that I've waited to buy a sold-out item. I either buy a competitors, or I lose interest and decide I don't care enough. I can't actually think of a case, off hand, where I did wait, although I'm sure its happened at some point. I either want the thing at that time point, in which case I will look for an alternative because waiting won't get me the thing at that time point, or if its not important enough or I don't want it enough to want it right away, then I don't buy and usually I either get less interested as I wait, priorities shift or I just forget about it. For example, a PS5: I would have bought one on release, if I could have. Had the money set aside for it. But I couldn't get one and about two months later, I lost interest, cancelled my reservation and spent the money on something else and have decided there are other things I want more before I get one, such as a new guitar. Maybe in a few years I'll get one. Maybe. If I can get one cheap.

toddmatthews 5y ago

no means no, maybe means no, yes means maybe

dkersten 5y ago

Reminds me of Rob Fitzpatrick's customer development talks: ask a potential customer if they would buy your product and they're all positive yes, definitely. Go, ok, lets do it, whip out a credit card machine and listen to all the excuses they come up with why they can't do it right now.

JoeAltmaier 5y ago
A credit card machine! I remember those - you secure the card under a clip, put carbon paper form on top, run a little roller on a track across... I can still hear the sound it made in my head, would recognize it instantly if I heard it across a room. Nostalgia.
- dkersten 5y ago
  I actually was thinking of one of those little devices that talks to your phone over bluetooth when I wrote that, but I actually remember the carbon paper ones too! Used to use one when I worked as a street trader (jewelery stall in a touristy part of town) as a student.

caseysoftware 5y ago

Yes, most "Would" questions are absolutely worthless: > "Finally, the word “would” taps into a special place in people’s minds. At the end of the day people are optimistic. I’m sure of it! Think of the most negative person you know and ask them “would you like to be healthier?” They will say “Yes” and then come up with a bunch of reasons they’re not." My post: https://caseysoftware.com/blog/the-problem-with-would https://caseysoftware.com/blog/the-problem-with-would