5 ms·

On top of this there have also been big recent developments in fusion reactors. Probably still 50 years out for them to be useful though.

by vonadz 5y ago

ahevia 5y ago
I remember when I was kid hearing fusion reactors are impossible. What breakthroughs finally made them potentially possible?
- go_elmo 5y ago
  we are getting closer to it, slowly but steadily. But it is still a substantial way to go. Putting all hopes into it is definitely the wrong decision.
- OneTimePetes 5y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconductivity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconducti...
- sandworm101 5y ago
  >> What breakthroughs Superconducting magnets and faster computers to accurately model magnetic containment.
jillesvangurp 5y ago
Actually some companies that got hundreds of millions of funding are pitching commercial viability this decade. That's the reason these investments are happening. The breakthrough is basically that funding is now happening because the technology has progressed enough for investors to be willing to start taking that risk. They wouldn't do that on a 30 year plan. The fallacy is believing that because it has historically been so far away that is still that far away. E.g. Helion, a y combinator backed company (our beloved HN overlords), just raised half a billion from investors for a series E round that include Peter Thiel and a few others with well earned reputations for making lucrative investments. I think there's a good chance that we'll have operational fusion plants next decade already. It's not money in the bank yet but clearly enough of a chance for the likes of Peter Thiel to commit some serious money to this. Helion is pitching 1 cent per khw. That completely kills the business case for new nuclear plants. The payoff on those investments is going to be insanely good if this works as advertised.
- PoignardAzur 5y ago
  > It's not money in the bank yet but clearly enough of a chance for the likes of Peter Thiel to commit some serious money to this. That doesn't sound right. If Thiel thinks eg it has 1/100 chance of working, but if it works the stock value will be 10.000x what it is today, then it's a sound investment, but it still has a 1% chance of working.
- vonadz 5y ago
  My estimate was a pessimistic one. I would be SHOCKED if they are available this decade, looking at the fact that not a single one has positive net generation (this is just net thermal heat generation, AKA amount of heat put into the system and amount of heat out of the system). On top of that, current fission plants take over a decade to setup. I'd also posit that a return on investment in a company like this isn't only going to happen if it achieves its goal. Looking at how research intensive/cutting edge the end goal is, they could stumble across 100 different new innovations in the process that could sprout into their own business ideas. PS. Am I the only one who thinks this page sucks? https://www.helionenergy.com/our-technology/ https://www.helionenergy.com/our-technology/
- simonsarris 5y ago
  Helion has been "pitching" for a long time now. Which is fine! But its not really worth believing their estimates until they have something. Their schedule, like all fusion schedules before them, is definitely not working as advertised. From 2014: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2014/08/nextbigfuture-interviewed-helion-energy.html https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2014/08/nextbigfuture-intervie... > The breakeven machine will need about $35 million in funding (2015-2016) and the target is to develop it in 2016. > If all proceeds on schedule then a Helion Energy machine that that proves commercial energy gain would be a 50 Megawatt system built in 2019. $200 million will be needed for the commercial pilot plant. The plan would be to start building commercial systems by 2022.

On top of this there have also been big recent developments in fusion reactors. Probably still 50 years out for them to be useful though.

by vonadz 5y ago

On top of this there have also been big recent developments in fusion reactors. Probably still 50 years out for them to be useful though.

ahevia 5y ago

I remember when I was kid hearing fusion reactors are impossible. What breakthroughs finally made them potentially possible?

go_elmo 5y ago
we are getting closer to it, slowly but steadily. But it is still a substantial way to go. Putting all hopes into it is definitely the wrong decision.
OneTimePetes 5y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconductivity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconducti...
sandworm101 5y ago
>> What breakthroughs Superconducting magnets and faster computers to accurately model magnetic containment.

jillesvangurp 5y ago

Actually some companies that got hundreds of millions of funding are pitching commercial viability this decade. That's the reason these investments are happening. The breakthrough is basically that funding is now happening because the technology has progressed enough for investors to be willing to start taking that risk. They wouldn't do that on a 30 year plan. The fallacy is believing that because it has historically been so far away that is still that far away. E.g. Helion, a y combinator backed company (our beloved HN overlords), just raised half a billion from investors for a series E round that include Peter Thiel and a few others with well earned reputations for making lucrative investments. I think there's a good chance that we'll have operational fusion plants next decade already. It's not money in the bank yet but clearly enough of a chance for the likes of Peter Thiel to commit some serious money to this. Helion is pitching 1 cent per khw. That completely kills the business case for new nuclear plants. The payoff on those investments is going to be insanely good if this works as advertised.

PoignardAzur 5y ago
> It's not money in the bank yet but clearly enough of a chance for the likes of Peter Thiel to commit some serious money to this. That doesn't sound right. If Thiel thinks eg it has 1/100 chance of working, but if it works the stock value will be 10.000x what it is today, then it's a sound investment, but it still has a 1% chance of working.
vonadz 5y ago
My estimate was a pessimistic one. I would be SHOCKED if they are available this decade, looking at the fact that not a single one has positive net generation (this is just net thermal heat generation, AKA amount of heat put into the system and amount of heat out of the system). On top of that, current fission plants take over a decade to setup. I'd also posit that a return on investment in a company like this isn't only going to happen if it achieves its goal. Looking at how research intensive/cutting edge the end goal is, they could stumble across 100 different new innovations in the process that could sprout into their own business ideas. PS. Am I the only one who thinks this page sucks? https://www.helionenergy.com/our-technology/ https://www.helionenergy.com/our-technology/
simonsarris 5y ago
Helion has been "pitching" for a long time now. Which is fine! But its not really worth believing their estimates until they have something. Their schedule, like all fusion schedules before them, is definitely not working as advertised. From 2014: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2014/08/nextbigfuture-interviewed-helion-energy.html https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2014/08/nextbigfuture-intervie... > The breakeven machine will need about $35 million in funding (2015-2016) and the target is to develop it in 2016. > If all proceeds on schedule then a Helion Energy machine that that proves commercial energy gain would be a 50 Megawatt system built in 2019. $200 million will be needed for the commercial pilot plant. The plan would be to start building commercial systems by 2022.