3 ms·

The 99:1 numbers are very strange. Latest data from UK, which admittedly has a higher vaccination rate than US, gives a death ratio of 1:9 unvax:vax. Caution, S

The 99:1 numbers are very strange. Latest data from UK, which admittedly has a higher vaccination rate than US, gives a death ratio of 1:9 unvax:vax. Caution, Simpson's paradox is at play, older populations where the bulk of the deaths are, are significantly more vaccinated than younger populations. Unfortunately it is really difficult to find equivalent detailed reports (breakdown by age, date & vax status) in US either federally (CDC) or at state level. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1031157/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-44.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... Edit. Oh, I see now. From the fourth article: "99% of Alabama’s 2,379 COVID deaths from January to June were unvaccinated". Alabama had a covid wave in Jan, which then subsided. Mass vaccination only started in Jan, by the time the wave was over maybe 10-20% of the population was vaccinated. The numbers are dominated by the pre-vaccination wave, plus VE is high early on which limits the vaccinated deaths. Verdict: technically correct, but highly misleading. https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/state/alabama https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spr... https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-states/state/alabama https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-st...

disambiguation 5y ago
> The numbers are dominated by the pre-vaccination wave YES this right here is such a deliberate sleight of hand by the media, and as GP demonstrated they get away with it a lot! > 1:9 unvax:vax Shouldn't this be the other way around? 9 unvaxxed dying for every 1 vaxxed? Otherwise I'm not seeing the quoted claim in the report you linked. The closest I've been able to find for the U.S. is this Connecticut report on hospitalization. Unfortunately it omits unvaccinated deaths, but we see hospitalizations at a rate of 4:1 (unvax:vax) https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00558-2/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...
- angelzen 5y ago
  Good call. Turns out I did make an error, reading just the >80 column thinking it's 'total', because it happened that that line dominated the table. There are definitely more vax deaths than unvax covid deaths in week 40-44 in UK, but the ratio is smaller that 1:9. Brb, running excel to sum the whole columns. Table 4b, page 19 for raw data. Edit: The totals come at 669 unvax deaths vs. 3011 vax deaths. The raw numbers ratio is roughly 2:8 unvax:vax. This is not VE, as it is not adjusted to vax levels in the population. It is just a sanity check of certain claims in the US media. age unvax double vax <18 7 0 18-29 9 5 30-39 24 9 40-49 56 46 50-59 104 126 60-69 157 355 70-79 131 822 >80 181 1648 total 669 3011

disambiguation 5y ago

> The numbers are dominated by the pre-vaccination wave YES this right here is such a deliberate sleight of hand by the media, and as GP demonstrated they get away with it a lot! > 1:9 unvax:vax Shouldn't this be the other way around? 9 unvaxxed dying for every 1 vaxxed? Otherwise I'm not seeing the quoted claim in the report you linked. The closest I've been able to find for the U.S. is this Connecticut report on hospitalization. Unfortunately it omits unvaccinated deaths, but we see hospitalizations at a rate of 4:1 (unvax:vax) https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00558-2/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...

angelzen 5y ago
Good call. Turns out I did make an error, reading just the >80 column thinking it's 'total', because it happened that that line dominated the table. There are definitely more vax deaths than unvax covid deaths in week 40-44 in UK, but the ratio is smaller that 1:9. Brb, running excel to sum the whole columns. Table 4b, page 19 for raw data. Edit: The totals come at 669 unvax deaths vs. 3011 vax deaths. The raw numbers ratio is roughly 2:8 unvax:vax. This is not VE, as it is not adjusted to vax levels in the population. It is just a sanity check of certain claims in the US media. age unvax double vax <18 7 0 18-29 9 5 30-39 24 9 40-49 56 46 50-59 104 126 60-69 157 355 70-79 131 822 >80 181 1648 total 669 3011