19 ms·

Microsoft and the Metaverse

120 points by jonbaer 5y ago

Kiro 5y ago
> while also providing each user with an individual sense of “presence” On the Internet I'm merely an observer, not a participant. Sure, I can contribute but that's like sitting on the bench screaming instead of actually playing the game.
- simonh 5y ago
  You're on the internet right now, and participated by posting that comment. I don't agree with you (you feel how you feel, I'm just saying I don't feel that way), but it's certainly interesting and well articulated enough to spark consideration and further discussion.
- travisgriggs 5y ago
  This is just so darn well put. Simple but effective. Props to you or whoever originated the quote.
- drusepth 5y ago
  The internet is one of the few places I can truly feel like a "fly on the wall" and just watch a conversation unfold without feeling pressured into participating (contrary to me, you know, participating here!). I don't think a focus on "presence" in VR implicitly removes that ability, though. It depends on how it's implemented: I could easily see an app providing a "ghost" mode or something where you can interact with or just observe the world without being seen or using an avatar. However, I unfortunately don't see Facebook (or most of big tech trying to maximize network effects) allowing such a heinous feature.
intrasight 5y ago
I enjoyed the article. I do disagree with the belief that VR will succeed before AR, and that for that reason Apple is at a disadvantage. From what I see colleagues who work in this space doing, I think AR is going to be more impactful in business and industrial settings. As for the metaverse being the next stage of the internet, I certainly hope that is the case, and that it is based upon open protocols. Does anyone have pointers to articles about the open metaverse? I'd like to get up to speed.
tinyhouse 5y ago
So much talk about VR. In the end of the day the question is how good the tech can be in the next decade. I don't question the value that VR can bring to enterprise and consumer, but these things usually don't succeed until the tech is really good. I'm happy a company like Meta is going all in on it.
anonymfus 5y ago
Metaverse is the new cloud: the word used not to mean something, but to hide meaning.
- gradys 5y ago
  Both terms mean something. Both are amorphous, change over time, and cast pretty large nets, but they serve as loose coordination points for many more specific ideas. That is a useful function that isn't about hiding the underlying more specific ideas.
nathias 5y ago
I guess we'll just take the bad parts from all the dystopias.
- travisgriggs 5y ago
  Like a Metatopia?
k__ 5y ago
I'm dabbling in crypto for a few months now, and I don't quite understand the focus on XR in the "corporate idea" of the metaverse. To me, the main selling point of the metaverse seemed to be an alternative economical space based on tokens which are implemented in a decentralized matter. Everything else seems to be fluff.
- jayd16 5y ago
  Without the XR (or the ever increasing richness of media), you're just talking about the internet as it exists today.
  - k__ 5y ago
    The internet that exists today is to a huge degree based on advertisement revenue. It think, a replacement for this alone could be a game changer.
    - jayd16 5y ago
      Why would we expect that to change?
    - azinman2 5y ago
      Meta is an advertising company. Their products will not be ad free. Source: a friend working on such matters there.
      - k__ 5y ago
        I thought we're talking about the Metaverse?
        azinman2 5y ago
        I am. Currently the biggest commercial endeavor for it is Meta aka Facebook’s.
        5y ago
ethbr0 5y ago
> (On the beginning of home, personal computers) Employers bought their employees computers because computers made them more productive; then, once consumers were used to using computers at work, an ever increasing number of them wanted to buy a computer for their home as well. And, as the number of home computers increased, so did the market opportunity for developers of non-work applications like games. I think this is the nail on the head, and the drivers will be remote work + talent shortage. Medium to longer term, this is going to drive more people to relocate out of high cost of living areas and questionable quality of life. Once they're decamped to cheaper (and probably smaller) cities, the obvious question for both employee and employer is "How do I maximize the value of an employee?" Some fusion of technologies with the outcome of persistence seems like a very compelling answer. And, and I think this is underrated, suddenly you're buying productivity equipment and/or making home improvements. Which is a very different market, with a very different spending cap, than consumer gaming goods. F.ex. If someone offered a full persistence, comfortable, efficient, effective technical solution for $100k, would it be worth it at that price? What if it let you live in Boulder, CO (median home price $920k, high on liveable US city rankings) instead of SF, CA (median home price $1.5M)?
- deltree7 5y ago
  VR is also an excellent training tool for pre-defined tasks. The immersive part will make the learning more permanent, more kinesthetic and more real rather than reading a wall of text.
- fragmede 5y ago
  That $600k difference in home price is only $120k different if you're putting the standard 20% down-payment for a mortgage. Which is still a large delta, but still, slightly less. If we're talking about spending $100k for a efficient technical solution, we're down to a $20k difference (though if it's a $100k of the company's money vs $120k of mine, then that's a huge difference). Problem is, I don't see companies lining up to provide for new (or continuing) employee's moving costs, so the employee can move to a city where the company has little/no presence. The best workplaces were already looking at developer productivity prior to the pandemic, and there are material gains to be had from the company spending real time/effort on things. But that easily costs (the company) way more than $100k. Until we collectively - execs, management, ICs - gain enough experience with hybrid and all-remote work models (and even some post-pandemic all-in-person work models, which is different from pre-pandemic all-in-person work), we won't and can't know what maximizes the value of an employee (and anyone that tells you different is trying to sell you something - probably that remote work is unilaterally better, which it's not). The Monty Hall problem says that moving is the optimal thing to do, but ignores the real practical difficulties of moving to a completely new city. I'd love to live in Boulder, CO, except for all the hassles of actually moving beyond the physical relocation of my stuff from point A to point B, which is trivially solved with money.
croes 5y ago
For me most of these Metaverses sound like Second Life on steroids. So the Metaverse bis just a software running on some companies servers. Shouldn't it be about standards and protocols?
- k__ 5y ago
  As far as I could tell, the Metaverse idea is decentralized and based on standards. But I don't really know what companies like Meta or Microsoft have in mind for it.
- thesuperbigfrog 5y ago
  Ah, but the companies can't make money from standards and protocols like they can hosting it all.
- wildpeaks 5y ago
  Each of them wants to own the walled garden and become The platform, that's why they're not basing it on the existing open standards, conflicting commercial interests get in the way (see XKCD #927).
- deltree7 5y ago
  successful companies are always about distribution. You can say the same about Smartphones, but Apple has created a $2T value using the open internet
- Animats 5y ago
  There should be standards in three main areas: * Portals - you can leave one grid and go to another with your avatar, if the destination grid will accept it. (The destination grid may not want spacesuits in their cowboy sim.) Some of the browser-based virtual worlds already have this. * Asset portability - you should be able to take your stuff from one grid to another, if the destination grid accepts it. This is what NFTs claim to do, but don't. This may already be a legal right in EU countries, per Article 20 of the GDPR, "Data Portability". * Money portability - you should be able to spend and withdraw money on a grid without being locked into its payment system. Epic is currently fighting Apple over this. ("Grid" here means a virtual world or worlds under coordinated management. This term is used in Open Simulator, where there are grids run by various parties using the same software.)
suby 5y ago
All of the discussion around the metaverse as if it's something we should take seriously has me baffled. It's an ill defined concept and the effort is being led by a company that hardly anyone trusts or even likes. As far as I can tell it's the internet but in VR with an avatar. Or in other words it's the internet but with extra steps in the way of obtaining the information or completing the transaction, not to mention the increased hardware costs (VR headsets are expensive) and bandwidth costs associated with this superfluous fluff. I just don't understand how they aren't being laughed out of the room. This is fantasy level stuff and it's going to be an absolutely massive failure.
- deltree7 5y ago
  Yep, some people laugh at new ideas. They are also the same set of people who cry about Rich-getting-richer when they had the same set of opportunities as other new millionaires to invest in these laughable ideas.
  - 2pEXgD0fZ5cF 5y ago
    > new ideas Your post makes it sound like many new ideas succeed. This is certainly not the case, "new ideas" happen all the time, everywhere, spawned by both small and large companies and individuals. Most of them fail, and everyone wants to be "the new internet". > they had the same set of opportunities as other new millionaires This is not true for the majority of cases. If you take a look at millionaires and billionaires and their parents, most of them already started at what many would consider rich/wealthy (or very close to it). But the exceptions obviously make for better stories and headlines.
- wiliaonson 5y ago
  But, what if they're serious about it and other companies will try to join into the fray? You can't just assume that this is some kind of fantasy-level stuff.
- an9n 5y ago
  > it's going to be an absolutely massive failure. And if it's not, and like a smartphone it becomes a requirement for life in the modern world, this is the step where I say nope and go full Ted innawoods for good.
rytcio 5y ago
Who wants to make a new extension to replace the word Metaverse? https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/cloud-to-butt-plus/apmlngnhgbnjpajelfkmabhkfapgnoai?hl=en https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/cloud-to-butt-plus...
- astlouis44 5y ago
  The Immersive Web.
  - MikusR 5y ago
    The Semantic Web.
UnpossibleJim 5y ago
This has been said before, I'm sure, but the problem with "The Metaverse" is that it's trying to be controlled; to be captured and caged, by a select number of corporate/quasi governmental agencies who sell themselves as "an open platform, welcome to all". If "The Metaverse" truly is to take off, it needs to be an open standard, like HTTPS or websockets, that any virtual device can connect to and let anyone with the compute power to create their own "virtual world". And, just like the internet, it will be pretty basic at the start, and there will be disgusting sites because there will be no gatekeepers.
- astlouis44 5y ago
  This x 1000.
- technotony 5y ago
  High Fidelity tried to build this and failed. I think one of the issues they had was that the whole hosting thing was pretty tricky and created barriers to having worlds up all the time, this meant there were never as many places to explore as other more closed systems like VRChat. I'm not totally sure how you solve for that, maybe they should have hosted some sites themselves?
  - boardwaalk 5y ago
    There are plenty of places that already solve this for game server hosting. You pay, they pull up a VPS on their preferred provider with the game server installed and running, and you get a dashboard to control it. Having that sort of layman-can-do-it feature seems pretty vital.
- simonh 5y ago
  As I understand it, that's exactly the plan. The metaverse will be an open, standards based network of VR environments, each analogous to a web site. Each could be based on different products, in the way that a web site can run on apache or nginx. The key to it will be a public set of standards for avatars, identity management, authentication and persistent assets which is potentially where a blockchain comes in as a public ledger for shared information. Imagine being in Minecraft, then walking your avatar through a portal that takes you into Roblox. Or more likely just hitting a button and being there. This is exactly what Zuck is working on, plus of course a proprietary VR stack and suite of applications for his own implementation. there are other firms working on pieces of this too though and they are talking to each other. Here's another voice on this, independent of FB/Meta: https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2021/11/02/herman-narula-on-why-the-metaverse-matters https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2021/11/02/herman-na... I'm a skeptic that it will be as big as they reckon, we're physical beings living in a real world and I think that will always be prime reality. Also mobile isn't going away, I'm still going to have my phone on me all the time, not so much a VR head set, but they do seem to have thought all of this through.
soneca 5y ago
My current impression of AR/VR is that is the new 3D TV: it is a futuristic-looking tech that big companies were pushing like crazy because its adoption would mean a whole new market and revenue stream to be created. Only that no one really wanted to adopt it. The difference is that I never saw myself ever buying a 3D TV (and always hated 3D cinema), but I consider the possibility of being a late adopter of AR/VR several years from now.
- ghaff 5y ago
  I actually have one because the 3D part was essentially free at one point. Of course I have almost no 3D media to play on it.
- andybak 5y ago
  People have been making this comparison since the Rift DK2 was released 5 or so years ago and it is still wrong. 3d TV never had broad buy in from enthusiasts, artists, developers or anyone else that VR has consistently maintained support from for half a decade with no sign is a drop off. I work in the arts and the level of enthusiasm and support is increasing if anything.
- lostgame 5y ago
  3D had a major problem that it never solved. I continually stated I’d be interested in 3D displays when they developed them using glasses-less technology. I avoid going to 3D films specifically to avoid wearing the glasses. But they never got that far. Beyond the gimmick of the 3DS screen, I’ve never seen glasses-less 3D. Let’s say you’re a couple and you have two pairs of glasses. What happens when you have friends over? Furthermore - the glasses were not interchangeable between brands of television sets, meaning it’s not like you could just bring a pair and expect them to work. A VR headset costs $300, and offers a truly unique experience that excites me as a developer and is very interesting as a user. A 3D TV cost more than a standard HDTV - and never really offered anything that made it worthwhile. IMHO it was DOA. The existence of VR cafes and interactive installations has already made VR a real ‘thing’. The inexpensive nature of the Oculus Quest is helping that a lot, too.
  - 5y ago
astlouis44 5y ago
Ok, here we go - the metaverse is not a single 3D/VR social app or group of apps, vendor-locked to an specific platform and OS. The metaverse is quite simply THE spatial successor to the internet, but more specifically the World Wide Web. Because of protocols like HTTP, TCP/IP, and HTML, you can read and view text + photos + videos on webpages because of agreed upon standards. The metaverse will most certainly utilize old standards, but it will also need entirely new ones built from the ground up. The way users currently navigate the web via hyperlinks will be mirrored in the metaverse, but instead of shareable URL's we will have portals instead, so as to not break immersion and to deliver a sense of seamless teleportation from one immersive destination to another. We'll also need a universal SDK and API that every world can hook into in order to tie all of this together, so as to share data back and forth and to allow for true interchange of virtual goods. Blockchain will provide the base layer to enable this. WebGPU will allow us to render using modern hardware, as the browser equivalent of Vulkan, Metal, and DirectX 12. WebAssembly will allow for programs to be compiled to a universal bytecode. WebXR brings all of this together, enabling a true sense of presence inside a webpage. As more headsets by Meta, Valve (and Apple!) are sold and they become a part of our daily lives, it will become apparent that we need a way to link worlds together that are hardware and platform-agnostic. The web seems like the most straightforward, obvious solution to this problem. Also, now that Facebook has soured the term "metaverse", a term originally termed in Snow Crash and now has connotations with a social media company... may I propose a new one? How about The Immersive Web? My startup Wonder Interactive is working on building the immersive web, and our current focus is on bridging the gap between native game engines and the web. We're have UE4 support up and running, with WebGPU actively being worked on as well as WebXR. Our 2D web as we know it today has to evolve to become 3D-first and immersive. If you're interested in trying out our platform, you can register your intent here via our website or join our Discord below: Website: https://www.theimmersiveweb.com/ https://www.theimmersiveweb.com/ Discord: https://discord.gg/zUSZ3T8 https://discord.gg/zUSZ3T8
- spicybright 5y ago
  Souce that this is how it will work? I've heard nothing of an open platform on existing standards so far.
streamofdigits 5y ago
"This makes not an epsilon of (meta)sense, but I am paid to try to find logic and determinism in the highly idiosyncratic and inbred Siliconia and that's what I am about to do"
reggieband 5y ago
I'm surprised no mention of Amazon / AWS. > there remains a huge opportunity long squandered by Google: to be the enterprise platform that competes with Microsoft’s integrated offering by effectively tying together best-of-breed independent SaaS offerings into a cohesive whole. I understand what he is saying, but AWS is already there. Azure may be on the rise but no platform comes close to AWS in the SaaS space as of now. Amazon have a history of physical products, from the ill-fated fire phone to all of their Alexa products, kindles, and fire stick. They own a significant gaming division which recently launched the MMORPG New Worlds. It seems the only thing they currently lack is their own VR headset. But they have their hooks in enterprise already, a massive computing infrastructure, experience in almost every related tech and an army of independent devs familiar with their offerings.
TheOtherHobbes 5y ago
The Internet is not the metaverse. The Internet is primarily a distribution system for static documents, with extensions for interactive document exchange (most websites), and support for other media - music, video, etc. Key point - the other media are not interactive. You can select your experience, but you can't change it. This is because of content ownership traditions, not because of the technology. In other words, the Internet is a kind of automated bureaucracy. It has ads and clicky clicky things that pop up, but when you're buying a flight or shopping from a catalog or writing emails you're still doing something that would have involved paper or possibly people, but on a screen. Usually with lots of text. Which you're either reading or writing. The transaction friction has been lowered, and transactions that used to be local are now global (and sometimes vice versa). But the type of transaction hasn't changed. You're still selecting, ordering, buying, selling, communicating. This OP's vision of the Metaverse seems to be one where you start from this, but you're forced to follow the documents and become part of the bureaucracy. Does it reduce friction? No, it increases it. Does it change the nature of the transactions? Not particularly. The idea is still to do the same things, but somehow the VR version is "better." Well - more pixel area might certainly help in some situations. But balancing that against the permanent impression that you have become an animated emoji trapped forever in a corporate work space is - I think - going to be a very tough sell. Second Life turned into an absolute shit show, with virtual porn, virtual gambling, and virtual rent seeking everywhere, because the fundamental truth is that this is what interests a lot of the population. I can see VR/AR following a similar trajectory. That's far more likely to be the killer app for it than the bizarre idea that it's somehow better than Zoom for meetings - which no one really wants to be in anyway.
kthejoker2 5y ago
All you need to know about the Metaverse is every discussion about it is in conjunction with the largest corporations on the face of the earth. Literally the emperor's clothes.
deltron3030 5y ago
> Apple’s iPhone-centricity could be a liability, much as Microsoft’s Windows-centricity was a liability once mobile came along. The iPhone and wireless connection to it could make the glasses a lot lighter, basically a mobile server. Apple is rollling out a wearable system, they distribute the platform across their wireless earphones, watch and phone, maybe even using their computers to power the glasses when you're at home. They already got a large part of it deployed and used by people..
shmerl 5y ago
I'm waiting for them to announce "permanent reality" next.
smoldesu 5y ago
I'm going to be honest, it's really hard to read this with a straight face when our current notion of a Metaverse is nothing more than Roblox and some telepresence apps. Hell, those examples don't even fulfill Matthew Ball's Metaverse definition that they referenced earlier on: both of them lack persistence, data interop, and have hard caps on how many people can inhabit their digital space, K8-scaling be damned. The biggest issue is that none of the companies investing in the Metaverse truly care about the fundamentals. We're rushing in to buy McRib NFTs on blockchains that may-or-may-not exist in 10 years, and McDonalds is happy to turn a quick buck for selling nothing. Similarly, the companies who see this concept as collectible trinkets are entirely missing the point: NFTs are not a social service, they're a digital one. I've seen a lot of people claim that NFTs solve an issue that doesn't exist, and I frankly disagree. The concept of decentralized digital ownership is a huge conversation that stands to upend our current concepts of DRM and online possessions. The issue? There's a ton of money to be made in preventing you from accessing the stuff you want. Rights holders exist almost exclusively to prevent as many people as possible from attaining persistent ownership of their intellectual property. So long as capitalism is the driving force behind the so-called "Metaverse", you can safely assume that the only meta thing about it is how it's hellish reality exacerbates the issues corporations pose to us in the real world.
- setpatchaddress 5y ago
  I think honest NFT fans would do well to find a way to separate the digital-goods aspect from the "here's a digital signature attesting that you own a hash corresponding to the Mona Lisa" aspect, the former being a real technical problem worth solving and the latter being pure grift.
artfulhippo 5y ago
I think there's a big gender and culture gap in the VR/AR debate. People who place significant value in their physical appearance (eg most young women) are not in a rush to replace their bodies with an avatar. And we know that men go where the young women are.... Now, can Facebook or Microsoft succeed by serving the fantasies of nerds like us who read sci-fi as a kid? Of course. But Apple is still in pole position given that they are targeting the mass consumer market, not a niche.
- itsoktocry 5y ago
  >People who place significant value in their physical appearance (eg most young women) are not in a rush to replace their bodies with an avatar. This seems backwards. Wouldn't being image conscious make you more likely to want to replace your real-life self with a perfectly shaped avatar?
  - artfulhippo 5y ago
    A "perfectly shaped avatar" could be used by a young woman, or by an old man. So, in a way it's leveling. But that's also what makes it worse for people who are physically attractive. And what's more, having a "perfectly shaped avatar" means that the avatar designer made a beautiful design. But what many people want is to feel beautiful. Personally, I'm a rather fashion conscious male, and I have no interest in buying virtual clothes because I like to wear nice clothes, not just be seen in them. It's the difference between experiencing something and having a reputation for it.
- uyt 5y ago
  There's actually a current trend called "vtubing" where streamers use a virtual avatar, typically in anime style. Afaict, it's entirely dominated by women streamers (which is the opposite of the regular streaming, where the top earning streamers are all men). See https://playboard.co/en/youtube-ranking/most-superchatted-all-channels-in-worldwide-total https://playboard.co/en/youtube-ranking/most-superchatted-al...
  - artfulhippo 5y ago
siproprio 5y ago
Relying on Microsoft software for collaboration has created some of the worst engineering disasters and waste of resources I've ever seen. The company's motto seems to be that every customer is unique, and has different needs - meanwhile, all the places I've seen had very similar core problems that were amplified by relying on all the different Microsoft solutions used across their teams, and across organizations they had to collaborate with. Not only that, but colleagues were always unhappy because they were forced to use poorly designed inconsistent tools that are user unfriendly and encouraged mistakes and apathy.
- zmmmmm 5y ago
  Yes - that's the elephant in the room that really spoils his point. Teams is so horrifically bad that we are actively paying for Zoom and Slack even while a free Teams subscription is sitting almost idle. The deeper question is how did Microsoft engineer something so bad when they were literally just cloning other products. What does that say about their forward looking prospects?
keppy 5y ago
Let's not get too ahead of ourselves; a general AI and better brain-computer interfacing first. Then we'll see where we are at. Everything else is just snapchat/tiktok/minecraft/roblox, HTTP/HTML, and cryptography.
tompccs 5y ago
There are two types of technologies: those which give the user leverage in the real world; and games. Which is Meta? Ben Thompson tries to make the case that it's the former, but I have my doubts. Thinking about my current 95% remote work life, with very frequent calls, I think of the following frustrations: 1. Platform heterogeneity. Some people use phones, mobile, chat, Meets, Hangouts, Zoom, etc. Just trying to work out what platform (?) people use feels silly. 2. Bad hardware. I'm constantly having Bluetooth and wifi issues and so is everyone else. 3. Lack of engagement. Lots of people outside my org are just not as engaged as they were pre-pandemic. Customer service has become terrible. 4. Lack of space. My fiancé and I have to plan for an extra room if/when we move because of the WFH situation. Since we are unlikely to have a glut of spare bedrooms in London any time soon, this is likely to be a systemic problem. I can't see Meta or virtual presence/VR solving any of these problems, except incidentally (for instance, everyone loves Meta so much that everyone switches over to their perfect hardware and platform overnight). What I do see are a lot of drawbacks, such as 1. Nausea. It's well known that not everyone can tolerate VR 2. Compatibility. Can you still interact with people using other services? 3. Bandwidth. Do all your employees live somewhere with good enough internet service? 4. General creepiness. Usually the unease from new tech creeps up on you slowly (everyone normal saw iPhones and computers and even TVs as an unalloyed good from the start. Nobody seems to like the Metaverse). I think we might be on the cusp of a techno-reactionary Luddite movement. I could be wrong, but to me this feels too much like a case of companies and techies wanting something far more than customers having actual problems that this can solve.
zmmmmm 5y ago
It's good to see someone countering all the dismissive voices around the Metaverse pitch from Facebook(Meta). We are in an interesting phase where large parts of the technerati are having to somewhat rethink their dogma of having written off VR as a failed tech the mid-2010's based on both Facebook's determination here but also the undeniable breakthrough in price / value / performance / ergonomics that the Quest2 brings. This thing is absolutely affordable to the masses and absolutely has a value proposition justifying that level of purchase. We are definitely close to if not over the tipping point where this thing could explode in popularity and Facebook is currently the only game in town. With Facebook backing it to the hilt there's a real prospect it will leave not just a lot of journalists having to rewrite their viewpoints but many of the major tech companies revisiting their investment in the sector in catchup mode.
_carbyau_ 5y ago
"The Internet has no cap to concurrent users, while also providing each user with an individual sense of “presence”" While every user may have a presence, some users are more equal than others. Not every user has a site on the internet that other users can visit/interact with.
huksley 5y ago
> The Internet offers unprecedented (although not perfect) interoperability of data, digital items/assets, content, etc. What we need is some sort of "fabric" which improves interoperability of data, content AND communication in the Internet. Think "Dropbox" and Matrix (with bridges) together available on every website in the world to share, send and create content without lock-in and walled gardens. It might be a new browser or browser extension together with IPFS or similar.
mickotron 5y ago
On 25mbps internet connection, not possible. Maybe in 10-15 years I can meaningfully participate in the metaverse, providing local infrastructure catches up, or satellite internet like Starlink becomes available

120 points by jonbaer 5y ago

Kiro 5y ago

> while also providing each user with an individual sense of “presence” On the Internet I'm merely an observer, not a participant. Sure, I can contribute but that's like sitting on the bench screaming instead of actually playing the game.

simonh 5y ago
You're on the internet right now, and participated by posting that comment. I don't agree with you (you feel how you feel, I'm just saying I don't feel that way), but it's certainly interesting and well articulated enough to spark consideration and further discussion.
travisgriggs 5y ago
This is just so darn well put. Simple but effective. Props to you or whoever originated the quote.
drusepth 5y ago
The internet is one of the few places I can truly feel like a "fly on the wall" and just watch a conversation unfold without feeling pressured into participating (contrary to me, you know, participating here!). I don't think a focus on "presence" in VR implicitly removes that ability, though. It depends on how it's implemented: I could easily see an app providing a "ghost" mode or something where you can interact with or just observe the world without being seen or using an avatar. However, I unfortunately don't see Facebook (or most of big tech trying to maximize network effects) allowing such a heinous feature.

intrasight 5y ago

I enjoyed the article. I do disagree with the belief that VR will succeed before AR, and that for that reason Apple is at a disadvantage. From what I see colleagues who work in this space doing, I think AR is going to be more impactful in business and industrial settings. As for the metaverse being the next stage of the internet, I certainly hope that is the case, and that it is based upon open protocols. Does anyone have pointers to articles about the open metaverse? I'd like to get up to speed.

tinyhouse 5y ago

So much talk about VR. In the end of the day the question is how good the tech can be in the next decade. I don't question the value that VR can bring to enterprise and consumer, but these things usually don't succeed until the tech is really good. I'm happy a company like Meta is going all in on it.

anonymfus 5y ago

Metaverse is the new cloud: the word used not to mean something, but to hide meaning.

gradys 5y ago
Both terms mean something. Both are amorphous, change over time, and cast pretty large nets, but they serve as loose coordination points for many more specific ideas. That is a useful function that isn't about hiding the underlying more specific ideas.

nathias 5y ago

I guess we'll just take the bad parts from all the dystopias.

travisgriggs 5y ago
Like a Metatopia?

k__ 5y ago

I'm dabbling in crypto for a few months now, and I don't quite understand the focus on XR in the "corporate idea" of the metaverse. To me, the main selling point of the metaverse seemed to be an alternative economical space based on tokens which are implemented in a decentralized matter. Everything else seems to be fluff.

jayd16 5y ago
Without the XR (or the ever increasing richness of media), you're just talking about the internet as it exists today.
- k__ 5y ago
  The internet that exists today is to a huge degree based on advertisement revenue. It think, a replacement for this alone could be a game changer.
  - jayd16 5y ago
    Why would we expect that to change?
  - azinman2 5y ago
    Meta is an advertising company. Their products will not be ad free. Source: a friend working on such matters there.
    - k__ 5y ago
      I thought we're talking about the Metaverse?
      - azinman2 5y ago
        I am. Currently the biggest commercial endeavor for it is Meta aka Facebook’s.
        5y ago

ethbr0 5y ago

> (On the beginning of home, personal computers) Employers bought their employees computers because computers made them more productive; then, once consumers were used to using computers at work, an ever increasing number of them wanted to buy a computer for their home as well. And, as the number of home computers increased, so did the market opportunity for developers of non-work applications like games. I think this is the nail on the head, and the drivers will be remote work + talent shortage. Medium to longer term, this is going to drive more people to relocate out of high cost of living areas and questionable quality of life. Once they're decamped to cheaper (and probably smaller) cities, the obvious question for both employee and employer is "How do I maximize the value of an employee?" Some fusion of technologies with the outcome of persistence seems like a very compelling answer. And, and I think this is underrated, suddenly you're buying productivity equipment and/or making home improvements. Which is a very different market, with a very different spending cap, than consumer gaming goods. F.ex. If someone offered a full persistence, comfortable, efficient, effective technical solution for $100k, would it be worth it at that price? What if it let you live in Boulder, CO (median home price $920k, high on liveable US city rankings) instead of SF, CA (median home price $1.5M)?

deltree7 5y ago
VR is also an excellent training tool for pre-defined tasks. The immersive part will make the learning more permanent, more kinesthetic and more real rather than reading a wall of text.
fragmede 5y ago
That $600k difference in home price is only $120k different if you're putting the standard 20% down-payment for a mortgage. Which is still a large delta, but still, slightly less. If we're talking about spending $100k for a efficient technical solution, we're down to a $20k difference (though if it's a $100k of the company's money vs $120k of mine, then that's a huge difference). Problem is, I don't see companies lining up to provide for new (or continuing) employee's moving costs, so the employee can move to a city where the company has little/no presence. The best workplaces were already looking at developer productivity prior to the pandemic, and there are material gains to be had from the company spending real time/effort on things. But that easily costs (the company) way more than $100k. Until we collectively - execs, management, ICs - gain enough experience with hybrid and all-remote work models (and even some post-pandemic all-in-person work models, which is different from pre-pandemic all-in-person work), we won't and can't know what maximizes the value of an employee (and anyone that tells you different is trying to sell you something - probably that remote work is unilaterally better, which it's not). The Monty Hall problem says that moving is the optimal thing to do, but ignores the real practical difficulties of moving to a completely new city. I'd love to live in Boulder, CO, except for all the hassles of actually moving beyond the physical relocation of my stuff from point A to point B, which is trivially solved with money.

croes 5y ago

For me most of these Metaverses sound like Second Life on steroids. So the Metaverse bis just a software running on some companies servers. Shouldn't it be about standards and protocols?

k__ 5y ago
As far as I could tell, the Metaverse idea is decentralized and based on standards. But I don't really know what companies like Meta or Microsoft have in mind for it.
thesuperbigfrog 5y ago
Ah, but the companies can't make money from standards and protocols like they can hosting it all.
wildpeaks 5y ago
Each of them wants to own the walled garden and become The platform, that's why they're not basing it on the existing open standards, conflicting commercial interests get in the way (see XKCD #927).
deltree7 5y ago
successful companies are always about distribution. You can say the same about Smartphones, but Apple has created a $2T value using the open internet
Animats 5y ago
There should be standards in three main areas: * Portals - you can leave one grid and go to another with your avatar, if the destination grid will accept it. (The destination grid may not want spacesuits in their cowboy sim.) Some of the browser-based virtual worlds already have this. * Asset portability - you should be able to take your stuff from one grid to another, if the destination grid accepts it. This is what NFTs claim to do, but don't. This may already be a legal right in EU countries, per Article 20 of the GDPR, "Data Portability". * Money portability - you should be able to spend and withdraw money on a grid without being locked into its payment system. Epic is currently fighting Apple over this. ("Grid" here means a virtual world or worlds under coordinated management. This term is used in Open Simulator, where there are grids run by various parties using the same software.)

suby 5y ago

All of the discussion around the metaverse as if it's something we should take seriously has me baffled. It's an ill defined concept and the effort is being led by a company that hardly anyone trusts or even likes. As far as I can tell it's the internet but in VR with an avatar. Or in other words it's the internet but with extra steps in the way of obtaining the information or completing the transaction, not to mention the increased hardware costs (VR headsets are expensive) and bandwidth costs associated with this superfluous fluff. I just don't understand how they aren't being laughed out of the room. This is fantasy level stuff and it's going to be an absolutely massive failure.

deltree7 5y ago
Yep, some people laugh at new ideas. They are also the same set of people who cry about Rich-getting-richer when they had the same set of opportunities as other new millionaires to invest in these laughable ideas.
- 2pEXgD0fZ5cF 5y ago
  > new ideas Your post makes it sound like many new ideas succeed. This is certainly not the case, "new ideas" happen all the time, everywhere, spawned by both small and large companies and individuals. Most of them fail, and everyone wants to be "the new internet". > they had the same set of opportunities as other new millionaires This is not true for the majority of cases. If you take a look at millionaires and billionaires and their parents, most of them already started at what many would consider rich/wealthy (or very close to it). But the exceptions obviously make for better stories and headlines.
wiliaonson 5y ago
But, what if they're serious about it and other companies will try to join into the fray? You can't just assume that this is some kind of fantasy-level stuff.
an9n 5y ago
> it's going to be an absolutely massive failure. And if it's not, and like a smartphone it becomes a requirement for life in the modern world, this is the step where I say nope and go full Ted innawoods for good.

rytcio 5y ago

Who wants to make a new extension to replace the word Metaverse? https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/cloud-to-butt-plus/apmlngnhgbnjpajelfkmabhkfapgnoai?hl=en https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/cloud-to-butt-plus...

astlouis44 5y ago
The Immersive Web.
- MikusR 5y ago
  The Semantic Web.

UnpossibleJim 5y ago

This has been said before, I'm sure, but the problem with "The Metaverse" is that it's trying to be controlled; to be captured and caged, by a select number of corporate/quasi governmental agencies who sell themselves as "an open platform, welcome to all". If "The Metaverse" truly is to take off, it needs to be an open standard, like HTTPS or websockets, that any virtual device can connect to and let anyone with the compute power to create their own "virtual world". And, just like the internet, it will be pretty basic at the start, and there will be disgusting sites because there will be no gatekeepers.

astlouis44 5y ago
This x 1000.
technotony 5y ago
High Fidelity tried to build this and failed. I think one of the issues they had was that the whole hosting thing was pretty tricky and created barriers to having worlds up all the time, this meant there were never as many places to explore as other more closed systems like VRChat. I'm not totally sure how you solve for that, maybe they should have hosted some sites themselves?
- boardwaalk 5y ago
  There are plenty of places that already solve this for game server hosting. You pay, they pull up a VPS on their preferred provider with the game server installed and running, and you get a dashboard to control it. Having that sort of layman-can-do-it feature seems pretty vital.
simonh 5y ago
As I understand it, that's exactly the plan. The metaverse will be an open, standards based network of VR environments, each analogous to a web site. Each could be based on different products, in the way that a web site can run on apache or nginx. The key to it will be a public set of standards for avatars, identity management, authentication and persistent assets which is potentially where a blockchain comes in as a public ledger for shared information. Imagine being in Minecraft, then walking your avatar through a portal that takes you into Roblox. Or more likely just hitting a button and being there. This is exactly what Zuck is working on, plus of course a proprietary VR stack and suite of applications for his own implementation. there are other firms working on pieces of this too though and they are talking to each other. Here's another voice on this, independent of FB/Meta: https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2021/11/02/herman-narula-on-why-the-metaverse-matters https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2021/11/02/herman-na... I'm a skeptic that it will be as big as they reckon, we're physical beings living in a real world and I think that will always be prime reality. Also mobile isn't going away, I'm still going to have my phone on me all the time, not so much a VR head set, but they do seem to have thought all of this through.

soneca 5y ago

My current impression of AR/VR is that is the new 3D TV: it is a futuristic-looking tech that big companies were pushing like crazy because its adoption would mean a whole new market and revenue stream to be created. Only that no one really wanted to adopt it. The difference is that I never saw myself ever buying a 3D TV (and always hated 3D cinema), but I consider the possibility of being a late adopter of AR/VR several years from now.

ghaff 5y ago
I actually have one because the 3D part was essentially free at one point. Of course I have almost no 3D media to play on it.
andybak 5y ago
People have been making this comparison since the Rift DK2 was released 5 or so years ago and it is still wrong. 3d TV never had broad buy in from enthusiasts, artists, developers or anyone else that VR has consistently maintained support from for half a decade with no sign is a drop off. I work in the arts and the level of enthusiasm and support is increasing if anything.
lostgame 5y ago
3D had a major problem that it never solved. I continually stated I’d be interested in 3D displays when they developed them using glasses-less technology. I avoid going to 3D films specifically to avoid wearing the glasses. But they never got that far. Beyond the gimmick of the 3DS screen, I’ve never seen glasses-less 3D. Let’s say you’re a couple and you have two pairs of glasses. What happens when you have friends over? Furthermore - the glasses were not interchangeable between brands of television sets, meaning it’s not like you could just bring a pair and expect them to work. A VR headset costs $300, and offers a truly unique experience that excites me as a developer and is very interesting as a user. A 3D TV cost more than a standard HDTV - and never really offered anything that made it worthwhile. IMHO it was DOA. The existence of VR cafes and interactive installations has already made VR a real ‘thing’. The inexpensive nature of the Oculus Quest is helping that a lot, too.
- 5y ago

astlouis44 5y ago

Ok, here we go - the metaverse is not a single 3D/VR social app or group of apps, vendor-locked to an specific platform and OS. The metaverse is quite simply THE spatial successor to the internet, but more specifically the World Wide Web. Because of protocols like HTTP, TCP/IP, and HTML, you can read and view text + photos + videos on webpages because of agreed upon standards. The metaverse will most certainly utilize old standards, but it will also need entirely new ones built from the ground up. The way users currently navigate the web via hyperlinks will be mirrored in the metaverse, but instead of shareable URL's we will have portals instead, so as to not break immersion and to deliver a sense of seamless teleportation from one immersive destination to another. We'll also need a universal SDK and API that every world can hook into in order to tie all of this together, so as to share data back and forth and to allow for true interchange of virtual goods. Blockchain will provide the base layer to enable this. WebGPU will allow us to render using modern hardware, as the browser equivalent of Vulkan, Metal, and DirectX 12. WebAssembly will allow for programs to be compiled to a universal bytecode. WebXR brings all of this together, enabling a true sense of presence inside a webpage. As more headsets by Meta, Valve (and Apple!) are sold and they become a part of our daily lives, it will become apparent that we need a way to link worlds together that are hardware and platform-agnostic. The web seems like the most straightforward, obvious solution to this problem. Also, now that Facebook has soured the term "metaverse", a term originally termed in Snow Crash and now has connotations with a social media company... may I propose a new one? How about The Immersive Web? My startup Wonder Interactive is working on building the immersive web, and our current focus is on bridging the gap between native game engines and the web. We're have UE4 support up and running, with WebGPU actively being worked on as well as WebXR. Our 2D web as we know it today has to evolve to become 3D-first and immersive. If you're interested in trying out our platform, you can register your intent here via our website or join our Discord below: Website: https://www.theimmersiveweb.com/ https://www.theimmersiveweb.com/ Discord: https://discord.gg/zUSZ3T8 https://discord.gg/zUSZ3T8

spicybright 5y ago
Souce that this is how it will work? I've heard nothing of an open platform on existing standards so far.

streamofdigits 5y ago

"This makes not an epsilon of (meta)sense, but I am paid to try to find logic and determinism in the highly idiosyncratic and inbred Siliconia and that's what I am about to do"

reggieband 5y ago

I'm surprised no mention of Amazon / AWS. > there remains a huge opportunity long squandered by Google: to be the enterprise platform that competes with Microsoft’s integrated offering by effectively tying together best-of-breed independent SaaS offerings into a cohesive whole. I understand what he is saying, but AWS is already there. Azure may be on the rise but no platform comes close to AWS in the SaaS space as of now. Amazon have a history of physical products, from the ill-fated fire phone to all of their Alexa products, kindles, and fire stick. They own a significant gaming division which recently launched the MMORPG New Worlds. It seems the only thing they currently lack is their own VR headset. But they have their hooks in enterprise already, a massive computing infrastructure, experience in almost every related tech and an army of independent devs familiar with their offerings.

TheOtherHobbes 5y ago

The Internet is not the metaverse. The Internet is primarily a distribution system for static documents, with extensions for interactive document exchange (most websites), and support for other media - music, video, etc. Key point - the other media are not interactive. You can select your experience, but you can't change it. This is because of content ownership traditions, not because of the technology. In other words, the Internet is a kind of automated bureaucracy. It has ads and clicky clicky things that pop up, but when you're buying a flight or shopping from a catalog or writing emails you're still doing something that would have involved paper or possibly people, but on a screen. Usually with lots of text. Which you're either reading or writing. The transaction friction has been lowered, and transactions that used to be local are now global (and sometimes vice versa). But the type of transaction hasn't changed. You're still selecting, ordering, buying, selling, communicating. This OP's vision of the Metaverse seems to be one where you start from this, but you're forced to follow the documents and become part of the bureaucracy. Does it reduce friction? No, it increases it. Does it change the nature of the transactions? Not particularly. The idea is still to do the same things, but somehow the VR version is "better." Well - more pixel area might certainly help in some situations. But balancing that against the permanent impression that you have become an animated emoji trapped forever in a corporate work space is - I think - going to be a very tough sell. Second Life turned into an absolute shit show, with virtual porn, virtual gambling, and virtual rent seeking everywhere, because the fundamental truth is that this is what interests a lot of the population. I can see VR/AR following a similar trajectory. That's far more likely to be the killer app for it than the bizarre idea that it's somehow better than Zoom for meetings - which no one really wants to be in anyway.

kthejoker2 5y ago

All you need to know about the Metaverse is every discussion about it is in conjunction with the largest corporations on the face of the earth. Literally the emperor's clothes.

deltron3030 5y ago

> Apple’s iPhone-centricity could be a liability, much as Microsoft’s Windows-centricity was a liability once mobile came along. The iPhone and wireless connection to it could make the glasses a lot lighter, basically a mobile server. Apple is rollling out a wearable system, they distribute the platform across their wireless earphones, watch and phone, maybe even using their computers to power the glasses when you're at home. They already got a large part of it deployed and used by people..

shmerl 5y ago

I'm waiting for them to announce "permanent reality" next.

smoldesu 5y ago

I'm going to be honest, it's really hard to read this with a straight face when our current notion of a Metaverse is nothing more than Roblox and some telepresence apps. Hell, those examples don't even fulfill Matthew Ball's Metaverse definition that they referenced earlier on: both of them lack persistence, data interop, and have hard caps on how many people can inhabit their digital space, K8-scaling be damned. The biggest issue is that none of the companies investing in the Metaverse truly care about the fundamentals. We're rushing in to buy McRib NFTs on blockchains that may-or-may-not exist in 10 years, and McDonalds is happy to turn a quick buck for selling nothing. Similarly, the companies who see this concept as collectible trinkets are entirely missing the point: NFTs are not a social service, they're a digital one. I've seen a lot of people claim that NFTs solve an issue that doesn't exist, and I frankly disagree. The concept of decentralized digital ownership is a huge conversation that stands to upend our current concepts of DRM and online possessions. The issue? There's a ton of money to be made in preventing you from accessing the stuff you want. Rights holders exist almost exclusively to prevent as many people as possible from attaining persistent ownership of their intellectual property. So long as capitalism is the driving force behind the so-called "Metaverse", you can safely assume that the only meta thing about it is how it's hellish reality exacerbates the issues corporations pose to us in the real world.

setpatchaddress 5y ago
I think honest NFT fans would do well to find a way to separate the digital-goods aspect from the "here's a digital signature attesting that you own a hash corresponding to the Mona Lisa" aspect, the former being a real technical problem worth solving and the latter being pure grift.

artfulhippo 5y ago

I think there's a big gender and culture gap in the VR/AR debate. People who place significant value in their physical appearance (eg most young women) are not in a rush to replace their bodies with an avatar. And we know that men go where the young women are.... Now, can Facebook or Microsoft succeed by serving the fantasies of nerds like us who read sci-fi as a kid? Of course. But Apple is still in pole position given that they are targeting the mass consumer market, not a niche.

itsoktocry 5y ago
>People who place significant value in their physical appearance (eg most young women) are not in a rush to replace their bodies with an avatar. This seems backwards. Wouldn't being image conscious make you more likely to want to replace your real-life self with a perfectly shaped avatar?
- artfulhippo 5y ago
  A "perfectly shaped avatar" could be used by a young woman, or by an old man. So, in a way it's leveling. But that's also what makes it worse for people who are physically attractive. And what's more, having a "perfectly shaped avatar" means that the avatar designer made a beautiful design. But what many people want is to feel beautiful. Personally, I'm a rather fashion conscious male, and I have no interest in buying virtual clothes because I like to wear nice clothes, not just be seen in them. It's the difference between experiencing something and having a reputation for it.
uyt 5y ago
There's actually a current trend called "vtubing" where streamers use a virtual avatar, typically in anime style. Afaict, it's entirely dominated by women streamers (which is the opposite of the regular streaming, where the top earning streamers are all men). See https://playboard.co/en/youtube-ranking/most-superchatted-all-channels-in-worldwide-total https://playboard.co/en/youtube-ranking/most-superchatted-al...
- artfulhippo 5y ago

siproprio 5y ago

Relying on Microsoft software for collaboration has created some of the worst engineering disasters and waste of resources I've ever seen. The company's motto seems to be that every customer is unique, and has different needs - meanwhile, all the places I've seen had very similar core problems that were amplified by relying on all the different Microsoft solutions used across their teams, and across organizations they had to collaborate with. Not only that, but colleagues were always unhappy because they were forced to use poorly designed inconsistent tools that are user unfriendly and encouraged mistakes and apathy.

zmmmmm 5y ago
Yes - that's the elephant in the room that really spoils his point. Teams is so horrifically bad that we are actively paying for Zoom and Slack even while a free Teams subscription is sitting almost idle. The deeper question is how did Microsoft engineer something so bad when they were literally just cloning other products. What does that say about their forward looking prospects?

keppy 5y ago

Let's not get too ahead of ourselves; a general AI and better brain-computer interfacing first. Then we'll see where we are at. Everything else is just snapchat/tiktok/minecraft/roblox, HTTP/HTML, and cryptography.

tompccs 5y ago

There are two types of technologies: those which give the user leverage in the real world; and games. Which is Meta? Ben Thompson tries to make the case that it's the former, but I have my doubts. Thinking about my current 95% remote work life, with very frequent calls, I think of the following frustrations: 1. Platform heterogeneity. Some people use phones, mobile, chat, Meets, Hangouts, Zoom, etc. Just trying to work out what platform (?) people use feels silly. 2. Bad hardware. I'm constantly having Bluetooth and wifi issues and so is everyone else. 3. Lack of engagement. Lots of people outside my org are just not as engaged as they were pre-pandemic. Customer service has become terrible. 4. Lack of space. My fiancé and I have to plan for an extra room if/when we move because of the WFH situation. Since we are unlikely to have a glut of spare bedrooms in London any time soon, this is likely to be a systemic problem. I can't see Meta or virtual presence/VR solving any of these problems, except incidentally (for instance, everyone loves Meta so much that everyone switches over to their perfect hardware and platform overnight). What I do see are a lot of drawbacks, such as 1. Nausea. It's well known that not everyone can tolerate VR 2. Compatibility. Can you still interact with people using other services? 3. Bandwidth. Do all your employees live somewhere with good enough internet service? 4. General creepiness. Usually the unease from new tech creeps up on you slowly (everyone normal saw iPhones and computers and even TVs as an unalloyed good from the start. Nobody seems to like the Metaverse). I think we might be on the cusp of a techno-reactionary Luddite movement. I could be wrong, but to me this feels too much like a case of companies and techies wanting something far more than customers having actual problems that this can solve.

zmmmmm 5y ago

It's good to see someone countering all the dismissive voices around the Metaverse pitch from Facebook(Meta). We are in an interesting phase where large parts of the technerati are having to somewhat rethink their dogma of having written off VR as a failed tech the mid-2010's based on both Facebook's determination here but also the undeniable breakthrough in price / value / performance / ergonomics that the Quest2 brings. This thing is absolutely affordable to the masses and absolutely has a value proposition justifying that level of purchase. We are definitely close to if not over the tipping point where this thing could explode in popularity and Facebook is currently the only game in town. With Facebook backing it to the hilt there's a real prospect it will leave not just a lot of journalists having to rewrite their viewpoints but many of the major tech companies revisiting their investment in the sector in catchup mode.

_carbyau_ 5y ago

"The Internet has no cap to concurrent users, while also providing each user with an individual sense of “presence”" While every user may have a presence, some users are more equal than others. Not every user has a site on the internet that other users can visit/interact with.

huksley 5y ago

> The Internet offers unprecedented (although not perfect) interoperability of data, digital items/assets, content, etc. What we need is some sort of "fabric" which improves interoperability of data, content AND communication in the Internet. Think "Dropbox" and Matrix (with bridges) together available on every website in the world to share, send and create content without lock-in and walled gardens. It might be a new browser or browser extension together with IPFS or similar.

mickotron 5y ago

On 25mbps internet connection, not possible. Maybe in 10-15 years I can meaningfully participate in the metaverse, providing local infrastructure catches up, or satellite internet like Starlink becomes available