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Find it bizarre that people need to come up with new explanations (in other comments) for something that is straightforward, well understood, and has been so fo
by randomsearch 5y ago
Find it bizarre that people need to come up with new explanations (in other comments) for something that is straightforward, well understood, and has been so for a century.
Money supply goes up. Provided that gets into consumer’s hands, demand goes up. Depending on the velocity of money, the slack in the economy is quickly eaten up. In a recession there’s more slack. Slack is things like unemployed workers, warehouse stocks, easily accessible resources.
Once the slack is gone, this causes prices to rise.
None of this requires consumers to change their habits. It’s just a slight marginal increase in spending by _a vast number of people_, which has transitive spending effects. This is Keynesian economics 101. The only thing that is surprising is the speed at which this has happened.
The proximate cause is printing money. A more interesting point: during the Obama administration there was a collective feeling that they had not printed enough cash during the 2008 crisis. I think what we’re seeing is an over-correction for that now in the size of stimulus packages. Very much a product of Biden being there in 2008 and now. It’s well intentioned but the mistake is to equate the two events; there was little risk in 2008 of over stimulating the economy, because the recession damped velocity and capital accounts and liquidity requirements ate up the new money supply.
World leaders have made a basic error and high inflation is the inevitable consequence. I’m not knowledgable enough to know what the level of inflation we can expect will be, but 5% feels nowhere near the peak. The real danger now is that we get into a wage-price inflationary spiral, which we’re beginning to see signs of. That spiral is incredibly difficult to stop, as the U.K. discovered in the 80s when Thatcher and Lawson threw the kitchen sink at it and it still took years to have any effect.