5 ms·

The article doesn't answer the obvious question though: what next? The various pandemic subsidy packages are by and large being wound down, which implies that

The article doesn't answer the obvious question though: what next? The various pandemic subsidy packages are by and large being wound down, which implies that demand should start dropping quite soon as well.

Maximus9000 5y ago
Also, as the pandemic fades, people will probably start spending more money on services and less money on goods.
anm89 5y ago
Bridge water is very much on the record saying what they think comes next. Inflation, low rates, poor performance for bonds, poor performance for many assets.
- qPM9l3XJrF 5y ago
  Where are they investing then?
  - anm89 5y ago
    If I had to channel Ray Dalio he would say: - Keep your Beta as high as possible, you want to be as diversified as possible heading into a difficult environment - Cash is trash - Value will accrue to real assets and hard money. Real estate, equities with consistent cash flows and strong books, commodities, crypto, land, natural resources. These kinds of things There are plenty of videos of him on youtube going deeper on all of these topics
- clavicat 5y ago
  That was my thesis all summer long, but bond yields have remained stubbornly low and the stock market just had a blowout October even as inflationary pressures picked up amidst the Evergrande crisis and the debt-ceiling crisis. I’ve given up thinking that there is anything that can bring down this market and will no longer fight the trend.
  - mellavora 5y ago
    well, maybe the capitulation of the bears could bring it down...
  - anm89 5y ago
    I think you may be slightly misunderstanding his take. I don't think he would argue this bubble is going to pop. Maybe increased volatility with a couple "events" but not a nominal pop. The bubble will pop through sustained inflation. The S&p will be up 100% while the dollar will have lost 60% of it's value over 5 years. From a metrics perspective the bubble is gone at that point. So yeah, after 10 years of thinking bubbles were about to pop I'm finally on the "this is the exception" this market is never coming down team. It really is politically infeasible for it to move in any other direction while it's totally politically feasible to print money and maintain high nominal values.

Maximus9000 5y ago

Also, as the pandemic fades, people will probably start spending more money on services and less money on goods.

anm89 5y ago

Bridge water is very much on the record saying what they think comes next. Inflation, low rates, poor performance for bonds, poor performance for many assets.

qPM9l3XJrF 5y ago
Where are they investing then?
- anm89 5y ago
  If I had to channel Ray Dalio he would say: - Keep your Beta as high as possible, you want to be as diversified as possible heading into a difficult environment - Cash is trash - Value will accrue to real assets and hard money. Real estate, equities with consistent cash flows and strong books, commodities, crypto, land, natural resources. These kinds of things There are plenty of videos of him on youtube going deeper on all of these topics
clavicat 5y ago
That was my thesis all summer long, but bond yields have remained stubbornly low and the stock market just had a blowout October even as inflationary pressures picked up amidst the Evergrande crisis and the debt-ceiling crisis. I’ve given up thinking that there is anything that can bring down this market and will no longer fight the trend.
- mellavora 5y ago
  well, maybe the capitulation of the bears could bring it down...
- anm89 5y ago
  I think you may be slightly misunderstanding his take. I don't think he would argue this bubble is going to pop. Maybe increased volatility with a couple "events" but not a nominal pop. The bubble will pop through sustained inflation. The S&p will be up 100% while the dollar will have lost 60% of it's value over 5 years. From a metrics perspective the bubble is gone at that point. So yeah, after 10 years of thinking bubbles were about to pop I'm finally on the "this is the exception" this market is never coming down team. It really is politically infeasible for it to move in any other direction while it's totally politically feasible to print money and maintain high nominal values.