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I've long been of the opinion that the real winner in the EV market will be personal vehicles (such as eBikes) and electric mass transit, not larger EVs such as
by packetlost 5y ago
I've long been of the opinion that the real winner in the EV market will be personal vehicles (such as eBikes) and electric mass transit, not larger EVs such as cars in most urban environments.
- Robotbeat 5y agoThat’s unlikely. From a revenue standpoint, ebikes are cheap and you don’t need that many e-buses. Even if we go to Netherlands-level bike-friendliness, that’s only a 40% reduction in per capita car/truck ownership at best. Doesn’t mean we won’t do a lot of miles by bike or bus, but as long as people have the money for it, they’ll still buy at least one car per household for cornercases that buses and bikes (& ride share) don’t address. If we get really good public transit and bike infrastructure, the median American household will probably have a couple electric bikes, one or two electric cars, and at least one person will commute via electric bus or train. It’s gonna be “both and.”
- SahAssar 5y ago> that’s only a 40% reduction in per capita car/truck ownership at best. What is that based on?
- Robotbeat 5y agoNumber of motor vehicles per capita. US = 816 per 1000. Netherlands = 499 per 1000. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_... 499/816 = 61%. Only a 39% reduction. But there are geographical differences that make it even harder for the US to get rid of cars even if it had the same culture/institutions as the Netherlands.