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> Do this for 7 years while investing most of your salary in a diversified portfolio. Don’t go too crazy with Crypto. In a bullish market, like last decade. Th

• paulpauper 5y ago
  people said this in 1993 "the bull market lasted a decade, it cannot continue". Even after accounting for the 2000 and 2008 crash, it would only revisit the lows of 1996. Even when stocks are overvalued or the bull market is long in tooth, staying invested can still pay off. The evidence suggests market timing does not work:there are no reliable signals for exiting the market.
  • medvezhenok 5y ago
    Yes, you could have also said it in 1987 in Japan. The Nikkei 225 had returned 23% ARR since 1950 (for 37 years) and would return another ~60% before falling and going nowhere (except down) for the next 30 years. We have never actually had a true deleveraging in the system (in terms of absolute debt loads), so we're kicking the can on that down the road. It's working for now, but it's not going to work forever. We'd need either a deflationary crush or an inflationary debt jubilee to reset the leverage - it's going to be painful either way. That has been the modus operandi since the late 80s (in the U.S.) - increasing deficits, increasing debt, and bailing everyone out, but it will eventually stop working (number go up won't work forever).