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Zillow is just an aggregate typically MLS data. Sure it can probably have some influence via it's Zestimate product, but that's not what failed. Anecdotally 1/4

Zillow is just an aggregate typically MLS data. Sure it can probably have some influence via it's Zestimate product, but that's not what failed. Anecdotally 1/4 of the folks in my neighborhood currently have a for sale sign in their yard because of the price increases. I'm not sure where this upward pressure is coming from, but I fear another 2008.

gpapilion 5y ago
The economy itself has been good the last 12 months in coastal cities. The upward pressure is coming from those who have money to spend upgrading the life. I don’t fear another 2008 since the mortgage market hasn’t gone as crazy. I do think we’ll see a correction, but it’s more likely to be a slow down and increase in time to sell homes.
poulsbohemian 5y ago
> Anecdotally 1/4 of the folks in my neighborhood currently have a for sale sign in their yard because of the price increases. If I might offer some thoughts as a real estate agent... so we are seeing some of this in my market as well. In particular, we're seeing houses that are sitting on market longer than they have the rest of the past two years. This is causing many people in my market to prognosticate that the market is slowing down / we're in a bubble / this is the top, etc. Instead the problem is that there are sellers who see dollar signs and are listing their homes much higher than the market can actually bear. It's not that there aren't buyers or that the cost of capital has increased, they have just gotten greedy as seller. So - I don't know what market you are in, but my guess would be that many of those opportunistic sellers will be disappointed and that the market will self correct - not that it will crash, but simply self-correct.
- brodouevencode 5y ago
  That makes sense. The ones I do know that are selling - they're not tied to this area by family/jobs/other commitments and they probably see an easy cash grab because of that. One family was in their house for 9 months then sold it for $80k, or ~25%, more than what they paid for it (according to Zillow). Honestly not a bad payday but how long can something like that last?
  - poulsbohemian 5y ago
    >Honestly not a bad payday but how long can something like that last? IMHO, it could be a while. Every market is different because real estate is so localized, but... there are relatively few asset classes. The general public invests in two of those: stocks and real estate. Sure, interest rates might rise but anything below 5% is a 50+ year low. Even pre Covid we were beginning to see a significant population reorganization, in part due to climate change, remote work, cost of living, and generational preferences. We simply do not have have enough housing - or enough of the right kind of housing - in areas people want to move. So, at least in my area I don't see a obvious stop to the demand. That isn't to say that people are going to see an $80K increase in 9 months ongoing, but just that the appreciation will be there and the demand will continue.

gpapilion 5y ago

The economy itself has been good the last 12 months in coastal cities. The upward pressure is coming from those who have money to spend upgrading the life. I don’t fear another 2008 since the mortgage market hasn’t gone as crazy. I do think we’ll see a correction, but it’s more likely to be a slow down and increase in time to sell homes.

poulsbohemian 5y ago

> Anecdotally 1/4 of the folks in my neighborhood currently have a for sale sign in their yard because of the price increases. If I might offer some thoughts as a real estate agent... so we are seeing some of this in my market as well. In particular, we're seeing houses that are sitting on market longer than they have the rest of the past two years. This is causing many people in my market to prognosticate that the market is slowing down / we're in a bubble / this is the top, etc. Instead the problem is that there are sellers who see dollar signs and are listing their homes much higher than the market can actually bear. It's not that there aren't buyers or that the cost of capital has increased, they have just gotten greedy as seller. So - I don't know what market you are in, but my guess would be that many of those opportunistic sellers will be disappointed and that the market will self correct - not that it will crash, but simply self-correct.

brodouevencode 5y ago
That makes sense. The ones I do know that are selling - they're not tied to this area by family/jobs/other commitments and they probably see an easy cash grab because of that. One family was in their house for 9 months then sold it for $80k, or ~25%, more than what they paid for it (according to Zillow). Honestly not a bad payday but how long can something like that last?
- poulsbohemian 5y ago
  >Honestly not a bad payday but how long can something like that last? IMHO, it could be a while. Every market is different because real estate is so localized, but... there are relatively few asset classes. The general public invests in two of those: stocks and real estate. Sure, interest rates might rise but anything below 5% is a 50+ year low. Even pre Covid we were beginning to see a significant population reorganization, in part due to climate change, remote work, cost of living, and generational preferences. We simply do not have have enough housing - or enough of the right kind of housing - in areas people want to move. So, at least in my area I don't see a obvious stop to the demand. That isn't to say that people are going to see an $80K increase in 9 months ongoing, but just that the appreciation will be there and the demand will continue.