3 ms·

For China yes. But China doesnt make the moves, its the person leading the country who does. If Xi decides that the calculus benefits him he might make the mov

For China yes. But China doesnt make the moves, its the person leading the country who does. If Xi decides that the calculus benefits him he might make the move. If he succeeds he moves China to the worlds undeniable number 1 super power. He only needs America to blink. And the appearance right now is that American leadership is completely unwilling to challenge China.

jjk166 5y ago
Xi didn't get to the top of his party's leadership by misidentifying peoples incentives nor by betting everything on people going against their own self interest. Xi wants to rouse chinese nationalism as a stabilizing influence as china prepares to face several serious challenges in the near future, and saber rattling with a distant opponent is a good way to achieve that aim. Actually going to war is unnecessary and indeed runs directly counter to his goals. Further, Xi is not an autocrat; he certainly holds immense influence over the workings of government, but if he loses the faith of the party by a series of irrational decisions, he will be replaced. America, for its part, has essentially named China its primary adversary and focused all efforts on opposing it economically, diplomatically, and militarily, with wide bipartisan support. Maybe America's current leadership would blink, but its a gamble; a gamble in which if Xi wins he gets basically nothing while if he loses his country burns.
- namelessoracle 5y ago
  I agree with all of this. But if Xi's internal situation with his party denigrates to the point where he needs to take some kind of major action that boosts his stature, that is when trying to invade Taiwan becomes a possibility. China basically gains nothing from invading Taiwan, but Xi might have some things to gain politically to solidify his position in other words.

3 ms·

For China yes. But China doesnt make the moves, its the person leading the country who does. If Xi decides that the calculus benefits him he might make the mov

by namelessoracle 5y ago

jjk166 5y ago
Xi didn't get to the top of his party's leadership by misidentifying peoples incentives nor by betting everything on people going against their own self interest. Xi wants to rouse chinese nationalism as a stabilizing influence as china prepares to face several serious challenges in the near future, and saber rattling with a distant opponent is a good way to achieve that aim. Actually going to war is unnecessary and indeed runs directly counter to his goals. Further, Xi is not an autocrat; he certainly holds immense influence over the workings of government, but if he loses the faith of the party by a series of irrational decisions, he will be replaced. America, for its part, has essentially named China its primary adversary and focused all efforts on opposing it economically, diplomatically, and militarily, with wide bipartisan support. Maybe America's current leadership would blink, but its a gamble; a gamble in which if Xi wins he gets basically nothing while if he loses his country burns.
- namelessoracle 5y ago
  I agree with all of this. But if Xi's internal situation with his party denigrates to the point where he needs to take some kind of major action that boosts his stature, that is when trying to invade Taiwan becomes a possibility. China basically gains nothing from invading Taiwan, but Xi might have some things to gain politically to solidify his position in other words.