3 ms·
Risk of myocarditis from the virus is higher than the risk of myocarditis from the vaccine. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm https://www.cdc
by lamontcg 5y ago
Risk of myocarditis from the virus is higher than the risk of myocarditis from the vaccine.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm
And your odds of knowing 2 kids / young adults who both got myocarditis reactions to the vaccine are roughly 1-in-500 if you know 50 people who got the vaccine to the point you would have heard about them getting myocarditis. That isn't winning-the-lottery odds.
It also isn't clear that boosters will be required (the title study is not terribly good and is full of confounding issues), particularly since the older age groups that really need boosters don't overlap with the younger age groups that have the higher rate of myocarditis as a side effect. We also have no data on the side effects of boosters in those younger age groups and if they produce myocarditis at the same rate as the initial dose.
We also don't even have any information on immunological waning of boosters and there's reason to believe that immunity after boosting will be considerably more durable. Some virologists are of the opinion that it always should have been a 3 shot series with a booster after 6 months and then you're done--but we're in the process of discovering the right dosing schedule on the fly.
- Jensson 5y ago> And your odds of knowing 2 kids / young adults who both got myocarditis reactions to the vaccine are roughly 1-in-500 if you know 50 people who got the vaccine to the point you would have heard about them getting myocarditis. That isn't winning-the-lottery odds. That isn't true, if the chance is 1 in 100k and you know 50 then the chance of at least one of them getting it would be about 1 in 2k, this is an overestimate of the chance but it isn't too far off. Similarly for these low probabilities we can just multiply them to get 2, still an overestimate so the probability of 2 of his friends would be less than 1 in 4 millions, which is lottery level. If it is 10 per 50k, just increase the chance by 100 and you get 1 per 20k, still small.
- lamontcg 5y agoThe chance is 4 in 100k per that article I cited.