3 ms·
Through product-management and estimation. At scale, R&D can, to a limited extent, be commoditized. Companies/organizations (think particle-accelerators, etc.)
by ISL 5y ago
Through product-management and estimation.
At scale, R&D can, to a limited extent, be commoditized. Companies/organizations (think particle-accelerators, etc.) have substantial experience bringing new technologies into production. If a new process has been proven in the lab and estimates exist for the speed with which each technology-demonstration milestone can be reached, one can credibly estimate when a new technology can reach the market. It is an inexact science, but all science is inexact.
With sufficiently accurate estimates and conservative allowances for uncertainty and schedule-slippage, one can reliably do this. Intel did so for decades, using Moore's Law as a roadmap.
- ghaff 5y agoMoore's Law has been sort of a special case in that it arguably functioned as sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy. "What do we need to do so that, in two years or so, we'll hit what Moore's Law would predict?" But, as you suggest, the same general patterns apply to a lot of things. You know what you want to do. You have some idea of what you need to do to get there and how hard it's going to be. So people who have experience in such matters can make (usually) reasonable estimates of how quickly they can get there--even if they're (also usually) often optimistic. Because you're more likely to run into hiccups than unexpected breakthroughs.