4 ms·
These numbers are way off though, maybe those are just the cells? If we look at the 2021 estimates by the National Renewable Energy Labs for utility scale 4h ba
by cinntaile 5y ago
These numbers are way off though, maybe those are just the cells?
If we look at the 2021 estimates by the National Renewable Energy Labs for utility scale 4h batteries [0] We get cost estimates of 250 $/kWh for the high case, 200 $/kWh for the middle case and 150 $/kWh for the low case by 2030.
[0] https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/79236.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/79236.pdf.
- pydry 5y agoThat seems to be the cost of the physical batteries, not the price the grid would pay the farm for.
- cinntaile 5y agoThat makes sense I guess. Assume enough energy is supplied to charge the batteries. So lets say we want 1kWh during 4 hours, that puts our capital cost at 4 kWh*200$/kWh = 800$. Now we assume this system runs every day for 4 hours during ten years. Ten years sounds reasonable, but it could be less. 7 years maybe? So about 1kWh*365,25*10=14610kWh in total. That gives us 800$/14610kWh = 0,0548$/kWh or 54,8 $/MWh in 2030 if I didn't make a major mistake somewhere and assuming no efficiency losses. That's pretty good.
- pydry 5y agoYour link says a lifetime of 15 years. Capacity would degrade over time though.