This is true, however we are pretty certain about the numbers and they are overwhelmingly point towards getting the vaccine. (Maybe except for the very young, b

This is true, however we are pretty certain about the numbers and they are overwhelmingly point towards getting the vaccine. (Maybe except for the very young, by witch I mean under 25 maybe under 20. But I don't know those numbers, so that might even not be a question either.) One thing to keep in mind is that P(getting covid) is about 1. But for sure greater than 50%, especially if people don't vaccinate in large numbers (I mean others, of course) and if we do away with masks and restrictions. When doing this kind of comparison, vaccines are tricky, because if you vaccinate close to 100%, then you'll have very few cases, so P(getting covid) will be rather small and then it will seem that the vaccines may not be worth it. But if you don't, then it will be high and that's what you should base your decision on. BTW, this is why antivaxxery could become such a phenomenon lately (even before covid): too few children died or got paralyzed in the past quite a few decades so the usual diseases somehow started to seem not such a big deal. Because people just didn't experience the other side of the equation anymore. Also, on a side note, I'd expect that an antiviral will have more side effects than a vaccine.