5 ms·

What costs aren't being paid for exactly?

acidburnNSA 5y ago
The ones that ensure with several 9's that the lights come on 24/7 regardless of time of day or weather. LCOE covers the generator alone, but not transmission lines, idled gas plants, energy storage, smart load balancing, etc. You can keep big gas plants around in a high intermittent grid and fire them up 10% of the time. The way we view LCOE right now, those plants would be insanely expensive while wind/solar would be super cheap. But we would still pay for the backup capacity. This kind of system cost is what matters dramatically more than LCOE.
- cinntaile 5y ago
  LCOE is just an investment tool to figure out where you get the most bang for your buck as an investor. It does not tell us what the best option is for the energy system as a whole.
  - acidburnNSA 5y ago
    I know. Yet it is being used to say what energy tech is cheapest.
    - cinntaile 5y ago
      The thing that bothers me about the whole energy discussion is that there seems to be little room for a middle ground, it's just a political discussion at this point. In reality we won't have 100% renewables and we won't have 100% nuclear either. Neither of those 2 options, at their extremes, is best from a cost perspective.
coryrc 5y ago
Grid stability/storage, plus sunk costs. Say it's a cold cloudy day with no wind and it's been so for a week. You'll need the capacity of that coal/nuclear plant those days. And let's say every other day of the year solar and wind make enough power. So who pays the extremely high fixed cost of the nuclear and coal plant so it's available that one week you need it? No one wants to, so they're shutting them down. The power company could still be paying the bond for the plant, but ultimately that's the consumer's money. Then, surprise, you end up with blackouts or you pay for new natural gas plants to be built. Prices and fragility go up. It's likely cheaper to make demand more flexible, but that has a cost too.
- pydry 5y ago
  Grid scale batteries have become cost effective in the last two years. It'll take time to build out capacity but it'll take more time AND cost to build new nuclear plants.
  - mrjangles 5y ago
    This is something people get confused about. Grid scale batteries are definitely not cost effective or in existence. The media does their best to obfuscate this. What has been built around the places are battery packs to absorb dangerous power fluctuations caused by windmills. They destroyed the grid in South Australia a few years ago, and Elon Musk famously went in and installed batteries (maybe that is what you are thinking of). If you don't believe me go back and have a look at how big the batteries were. The 500 million dollar project installed 130 MWh worth of electricity storage. That is enough to produce the same energy as a power station for 10 minutes before being fully drained.
    - pydry 5y ago
      I'm thinking of battery backed solar farm in Hawaii that cost around $70/MwH and supplied about 1/5th of the power for the island. There's a few new projects in California/Nevada/Colorado that are allegedly costing around $30-40MwH (although I'm skeptical of how much storage they have for that price). Either way, conservatively speaking, $50-60/MwH for battery backed wind/solar on the mainland seems fairly doable. Prices will likely keep dropping too. By contrast, in the UK Hinkley Point C is being paid $124/MwH guaranteed for 20 years. It doesn't exist because it's a cost effective way of supplying green energy that's for sure, but it does bolster the nuclear economy. The military do like to hire nuclear technicians and buy parts for PWRs in nuclear subs, etc. and somebody has to pay for these things. Rate payers, I guess.
      - cinntaile 5y ago
        These numbers are way off though, maybe those are just the cells? If we look at the 2021 estimates by the National Renewable Energy Labs for utility scale 4h batteries [0] We get cost estimates of 250 $/kWh for the high case, 200 $/kWh for the middle case and 150 $/kWh for the low case by 2030. [0] https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/79236.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/79236.pdf.

The ones that ensure with several 9's that the lights come on 24/7 regardless of time of day or weather. LCOE covers the generator alone, but not transmission lines, idled gas plants, energy storage, smart load balancing, etc. You can keep big gas plants around in a high intermittent grid and fire them up 10% of the time. The way we view LCOE right now, those plants would be insanely expensive while wind/solar would be super cheap. But we would still pay for the backup capacity. This kind of system cost is what matters dramatically more than LCOE.

cinntaile 5y ago
LCOE is just an investment tool to figure out where you get the most bang for your buck as an investor. It does not tell us what the best option is for the energy system as a whole.
- acidburnNSA 5y ago
  I know. Yet it is being used to say what energy tech is cheapest.
  - cinntaile 5y ago
    The thing that bothers me about the whole energy discussion is that there seems to be little room for a middle ground, it's just a political discussion at this point. In reality we won't have 100% renewables and we won't have 100% nuclear either. Neither of those 2 options, at their extremes, is best from a cost perspective.

coryrc 5y ago

Grid stability/storage, plus sunk costs. Say it's a cold cloudy day with no wind and it's been so for a week. You'll need the capacity of that coal/nuclear plant those days. And let's say every other day of the year solar and wind make enough power. So who pays the extremely high fixed cost of the nuclear and coal plant so it's available that one week you need it? No one wants to, so they're shutting them down. The power company could still be paying the bond for the plant, but ultimately that's the consumer's money. Then, surprise, you end up with blackouts or you pay for new natural gas plants to be built. Prices and fragility go up. It's likely cheaper to make demand more flexible, but that has a cost too.

pydry 5y ago
Grid scale batteries have become cost effective in the last two years. It'll take time to build out capacity but it'll take more time AND cost to build new nuclear plants.
- mrjangles 5y ago
  This is something people get confused about. Grid scale batteries are definitely not cost effective or in existence. The media does their best to obfuscate this. What has been built around the places are battery packs to absorb dangerous power fluctuations caused by windmills. They destroyed the grid in South Australia a few years ago, and Elon Musk famously went in and installed batteries (maybe that is what you are thinking of). If you don't believe me go back and have a look at how big the batteries were. The 500 million dollar project installed 130 MWh worth of electricity storage. That is enough to produce the same energy as a power station for 10 minutes before being fully drained.
  - pydry 5y ago
    I'm thinking of battery backed solar farm in Hawaii that cost around $70/MwH and supplied about 1/5th of the power for the island. There's a few new projects in California/Nevada/Colorado that are allegedly costing around $30-40MwH (although I'm skeptical of how much storage they have for that price). Either way, conservatively speaking, $50-60/MwH for battery backed wind/solar on the mainland seems fairly doable. Prices will likely keep dropping too. By contrast, in the UK Hinkley Point C is being paid $124/MwH guaranteed for 20 years. It doesn't exist because it's a cost effective way of supplying green energy that's for sure, but it does bolster the nuclear economy. The military do like to hire nuclear technicians and buy parts for PWRs in nuclear subs, etc. and somebody has to pay for these things. Rate payers, I guess.
    - cinntaile 5y ago
      These numbers are way off though, maybe those are just the cells? If we look at the 2021 estimates by the National Renewable Energy Labs for utility scale 4h batteries [0] We get cost estimates of 250 $/kWh for the high case, 200 $/kWh for the middle case and 150 $/kWh for the low case by 2030. [0] https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/79236.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/79236.pdf.