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Does the US really need more electricity generation? Electricity use is stable or even dropping although 2020 may be an outlier. Electric cars will change thi

Does the US really need more electricity generation? Electricity use is stable or even dropping although 2020 may be an outlier. Electric cars will change this though. At a personal level I use significantly less electricity now compared to 15 years ago. HVAC replacement, insulation upgrades, computer and consumer electronics power reductions, lowered my summer electric bill by 40% https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-03-01/americans-electricity-use-just-keeps-falling https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-03-01/americ... https://www.statista.com/statistics/201794/us-electricity-consumption-since-1975/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/201794/us-electricity-co...

ironmagma 5y ago
It’s good to have too much capacity, rather than just the right amount, as Texas learned during last winter.
rsj_hn 5y ago
I guess that depends on whether you believe electric vehicles will be a thing.
Godel_unicode 5y ago
Even if that's true (and according to the EIA total generation has been approximately flat for like 10 years) there's still the roughly 20% of generation which is done by burning coal. Replacing that with nuclear makes a meaningful change in total carbon emissions.
UncleOxidant 5y ago
> Electric cars will change this though. Yes, this is what we have to plan for. 20 to 30% of new cars sold in the US will be electric by 2030 (I suspect it'll even be higher than that). Projected to be 45% to 50% by 2035. We'll need more generation and some major grid improvements.
hilbert42 5y ago
"I use significantly less electricity now compared to 15 years ago." You're lucky. Often the more financially well off one is the easier it is to introduce energy efficiencies. Many poorer people are handicapped by the cost of house repairs, insulation upgrades, window double glazing, etc. Moreover, the condition of their houses are more likely to be in a worse state in respect of necessary maintenance, this further reduces their starting base. The same situation will also apply to their motor vehicles, they'll be the last to convert to electric cars, etc.
ashtonkem 5y ago
Yes, huge amounts of it. Aside from electrified transport, there’s also a lot of industrial processes that use natural gas for direct heating. We need a lot of extra electricity generation to cover these cases. Some of these can be shifted when renewables are overproducing, others cannot. Our grid literally cannot handle the demand that electrifying transit and industry would create.
- na85 5y ago
  A lot of places do what's called cogeneration: rather than buy electricity and gas, they just buy more gas and generate electricity on-prem, using the waste heat for heating their facilities/boilers/whatever.
  - ashtonkem 5y ago
    Still; moving those off of fossil fuels will put a lot of strain on our grid. Some of those facilities will put solar panels up and run their energy intensive processes during the day, but not all of them will. The grid needs to be able to handle that process, or we’ll just keep consuming fossil fuels.
    - na85 5y ago
      Indeed. My point was that the grid demand will go up immensely.
zbrozek 5y ago
Cheaper electricity means more electrification. The majority of my energy use is natural gas (for home heat) due to its low cost relative to electricity. Plus, there's coal and gas plants to shut down and something needs to replace them. Quality of life goes up with cheaper energy. If energy were free it would be 22-23 C inside my home right now, rather than 18 C, and I wouldn't be wearing a jacket while sitting on my couch. Now, the fact that it takes $400 of natural gas per month to keep my home 18 C when it's 11 C outside has a lot to do with how hard it is to get building permits in CA. But that's a different issue.

ironmagma 5y ago

It’s good to have too much capacity, rather than just the right amount, as Texas learned during last winter.

rsj_hn 5y ago

I guess that depends on whether you believe electric vehicles will be a thing.

Godel_unicode 5y ago

Even if that's true (and according to the EIA total generation has been approximately flat for like 10 years) there's still the roughly 20% of generation which is done by burning coal. Replacing that with nuclear makes a meaningful change in total carbon emissions.

UncleOxidant 5y ago

> Electric cars will change this though. Yes, this is what we have to plan for. 20 to 30% of new cars sold in the US will be electric by 2030 (I suspect it'll even be higher than that). Projected to be 45% to 50% by 2035. We'll need more generation and some major grid improvements.

hilbert42 5y ago

"I use significantly less electricity now compared to 15 years ago." You're lucky. Often the more financially well off one is the easier it is to introduce energy efficiencies. Many poorer people are handicapped by the cost of house repairs, insulation upgrades, window double glazing, etc. Moreover, the condition of their houses are more likely to be in a worse state in respect of necessary maintenance, this further reduces their starting base. The same situation will also apply to their motor vehicles, they'll be the last to convert to electric cars, etc.

ashtonkem 5y ago

Yes, huge amounts of it. Aside from electrified transport, there’s also a lot of industrial processes that use natural gas for direct heating. We need a lot of extra electricity generation to cover these cases. Some of these can be shifted when renewables are overproducing, others cannot. Our grid literally cannot handle the demand that electrifying transit and industry would create.

na85 5y ago
A lot of places do what's called cogeneration: rather than buy electricity and gas, they just buy more gas and generate electricity on-prem, using the waste heat for heating their facilities/boilers/whatever.
- ashtonkem 5y ago
  Still; moving those off of fossil fuels will put a lot of strain on our grid. Some of those facilities will put solar panels up and run their energy intensive processes during the day, but not all of them will. The grid needs to be able to handle that process, or we’ll just keep consuming fossil fuels.
  - na85 5y ago
    Indeed. My point was that the grid demand will go up immensely.

zbrozek 5y ago

Cheaper electricity means more electrification. The majority of my energy use is natural gas (for home heat) due to its low cost relative to electricity. Plus, there's coal and gas plants to shut down and something needs to replace them. Quality of life goes up with cheaper energy. If energy were free it would be 22-23 C inside my home right now, rather than 18 C, and I wouldn't be wearing a jacket while sitting on my couch. Now, the fact that it takes $400 of natural gas per month to keep my home 18 C when it's 11 C outside has a lot to do with how hard it is to get building permits in CA. But that's a different issue.