You misread my comment. 80% was in reference to a probability of failure. I think any chance of success 1:4 or greater can't exactly be called “incredibly low [

You misread my comment. 80% was in reference to a probability of failure. I think any chance of success 1:4 or greater can't exactly be called “incredibly low [probability] of success”, and even 1:4 seems unduly pessimistic.