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I think that's true to a certain extent, but I also tend to subscribe to Ray Kurzweil's theory that futurists overestimate the pace of change in the short-term

I think that's true to a certain extent, but I also tend to subscribe to Ray Kurzweil's theory that futurists overestimate the pace of change in the short-term and underestimate the pace of change in the long-term. The reason for this is that the pace of change is not constant, but is increasing exponentially, as new technologies enable more rapid iterations of development and market adoption of even newer technologies, and so on. However, this exponential trend is difficult to grasp from our perspective today, so futurists tend to extrapolate out the current pace of change into the future (along with a healthy dose of optimism), when in reality, change is accelerating.

mattmaroon 18y ago
Define long term. Every time I see an article from the 40s describing today, they've got us all in flying cars.
- azharcs 18y ago
  An good example would be Marc Andreessen of Netscape talking about Browsers making Operating System irrelevant in late 90's but the real potential of browsers is coming to be realized now and they are making OS irrelevant today.
  - mattmaroon 18y ago
    Are they? I mean, they're giving you more choice for sure, but I don't see any PCs sold without them. People still make their decisions largely based on OS.
- marvin 18y ago
  "Flying cars" will never be created, the same way a road-running sailboat will never be created. But we could probably build an aircraft today that would serve most of the purposes a car does.
  - deleted 18y ago
    [deleted]
  - mattmaroon 18y ago
    That was exactly my point. We could, but we won't and we probably won't in another 50 years. Technology is held back by all sorts of stuff.
- ks 18y ago
  I remember reading articles in the 80s saying just that... I'm also looking forward to booking a hotel in the moon colony in a couple of years. It's not that it is impossible. We could have flying cars and moon tourists any time we want, but the cost is much greater than the benefits.
- sown 18y ago
  Well, they definitely underestimated how powerful and cheap computers would be. No one from that era saw the biotech revolution coming. I guess that's long-term enough?

mattmaroon 18y ago

Define long term. Every time I see an article from the 40s describing today, they've got us all in flying cars.

azharcs 18y ago
An good example would be Marc Andreessen of Netscape talking about Browsers making Operating System irrelevant in late 90's but the real potential of browsers is coming to be realized now and they are making OS irrelevant today.
- mattmaroon 18y ago
  Are they? I mean, they're giving you more choice for sure, but I don't see any PCs sold without them. People still make their decisions largely based on OS.
marvin 18y ago
"Flying cars" will never be created, the same way a road-running sailboat will never be created. But we could probably build an aircraft today that would serve most of the purposes a car does.
- deleted 18y ago
  [deleted]
- mattmaroon 18y ago
  That was exactly my point. We could, but we won't and we probably won't in another 50 years. Technology is held back by all sorts of stuff.
ks 18y ago
I remember reading articles in the 80s saying just that... I'm also looking forward to booking a hotel in the moon colony in a couple of years. It's not that it is impossible. We could have flying cars and moon tourists any time we want, but the cost is much greater than the benefits.
sown 18y ago
Well, they definitely underestimated how powerful and cheap computers would be. No one from that era saw the biotech revolution coming. I guess that's long-term enough?