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I assume that inflation (CPI) can be reflected by the increase of money supply only when people can't find a way to transfer the money to somewhere inflation-pr
by typ 5y ago
I assume that inflation (CPI) can be reflected by the increase of money supply only when people can't find a way to transfer the money to somewhere inflation-proof and can only spend it on consumer goods. That's absolutely not the case in modern days. Look at the housing price, that's where the money's gone.
- mattnewton 5y agoBasically that’s my understanding. Anywhere you stick the money with low velocity will have the same effect on the left hand side of the equation to absorb increases in money supply. You’re right that people pick durable assets like houses to put it in, but it would have a similar effect on the velocity of the money supply if they buried cash in garbage bags for 15 years en-mass. People don’t do that because they expect reasonable and small inflation; you could imagine if that expectation went away though (either expecting deflation or very high inflation) how the money supply lever could stop being effective. Through the velocity lense, the fact that QE and stimulus checks have very different inflation effects also becomes apparent- if you give a check to someone living paycheck to paycheck, they will spend it in their local community nearly immediately and it will be passed around quite a bit before getting locked into an asset price somewhere. If you edit the banks accounts at the fed or have the fed buy assets though, it seems to go quickly into asset prices where it sits for years before leaking into the economy as a whole, with a much much lower velocity. So $1 there != $1 here in terms of increasing prices.