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Gates predicts software revolution

7 points by bootload 18y ago

Hutzpah 18y ago
yeah, the chokehold of the monopoly fades away... off course there is a surge in innovation.
mattmaroon 18y ago
Whenever technologists start dreaming of the future, they end up overestimating the pace of changes. They think too much in terms of what is possible and too little of the many forces of the market and government that hold them back. I have little doubt that if we were building a brand new country from scratch with a huge budget, we'd all have cars that drive themselves. But, because some percentage of the population couldn't afford them in our current reality, it's greatly complicated by the fact that not all cars would be self-driven. So rather than having roads and central control designed to make computerized cars safe, which we could probably already do, we have to design ones that can drive down a 50 year old expressway full of human-driven cars. That's how it works with most technologies. Legacy systems and things being good enough the way they are prevent the sort of rapid progress technologists always predict.
- ryanwaggoner 18y ago
  I think that's true to a certain extent, but I also tend to subscribe to Ray Kurzweil's theory that futurists overestimate the pace of change in the short-term and underestimate the pace of change in the long-term. The reason for this is that the pace of change is not constant, but is increasing exponentially, as new technologies enable more rapid iterations of development and market adoption of even newer technologies, and so on. However, this exponential trend is difficult to grasp from our perspective today, so futurists tend to extrapolate out the current pace of change into the future (along with a healthy dose of optimism), when in reality, change is accelerating.
  - mattmaroon 18y ago
    Define long term. Every time I see an article from the 40s describing today, they've got us all in flying cars.
    - azharcs 18y ago
      An good example would be Marc Andreessen of Netscape talking about Browsers making Operating System irrelevant in late 90's but the real potential of browsers is coming to be realized now and they are making OS irrelevant today.
      - mattmaroon 18y ago
        Are they? I mean, they're giving you more choice for sure, but I don't see any PCs sold without them. People still make their decisions largely based on OS.
    - marvin 18y ago
      "Flying cars" will never be created, the same way a road-running sailboat will never be created. But we could probably build an aircraft today that would serve most of the purposes a car does.
      - deleted 18y ago
        [deleted]
      - mattmaroon 18y ago
        That was exactly my point. We could, but we won't and we probably won't in another 50 years. Technology is held back by all sorts of stuff.
    - ks 18y ago
      I remember reading articles in the 80s saying just that... I'm also looking forward to booking a hotel in the moon colony in a couple of years. It's not that it is impossible. We could have flying cars and moon tourists any time we want, but the cost is much greater than the benefits.
kajecounterhack 18y ago
It doesn't take Bill Gates to say things will move forward. Companies will continue to find things people want, and people will continue to buy things they want. The end. Move on, nothing to see here.
rainface 18y ago
Isn't it about time Gates restrains himself from publicizing predictions?
Anon84 18y ago
Isn't this roughly what he's been saying since his 1999 book?
extension 18y ago
Bill Gates predicts sun will rise tomorrow with an embedded touch screen

7 points by bootload 18y ago

yeah, the chokehold of the monopoly fades away... off course there is a surge in innovation.

Whenever technologists start dreaming of the future, they end up overestimating the pace of changes. They think too much in terms of what is possible and too little of the many forces of the market and government that hold them back. I have little doubt that if we were building a brand new country from scratch with a huge budget, we'd all have cars that drive themselves. But, because some percentage of the population couldn't afford them in our current reality, it's greatly complicated by the fact that not all cars would be self-driven. So rather than having roads and central control designed to make computerized cars safe, which we could probably already do, we have to design ones that can drive down a 50 year old expressway full of human-driven cars. That's how it works with most technologies. Legacy systems and things being good enough the way they are prevent the sort of rapid progress technologists always predict.

ryanwaggoner 18y ago
I think that's true to a certain extent, but I also tend to subscribe to Ray Kurzweil's theory that futurists overestimate the pace of change in the short-term and underestimate the pace of change in the long-term. The reason for this is that the pace of change is not constant, but is increasing exponentially, as new technologies enable more rapid iterations of development and market adoption of even newer technologies, and so on. However, this exponential trend is difficult to grasp from our perspective today, so futurists tend to extrapolate out the current pace of change into the future (along with a healthy dose of optimism), when in reality, change is accelerating.
- mattmaroon 18y ago
  Define long term. Every time I see an article from the 40s describing today, they've got us all in flying cars.
  - azharcs 18y ago
    An good example would be Marc Andreessen of Netscape talking about Browsers making Operating System irrelevant in late 90's but the real potential of browsers is coming to be realized now and they are making OS irrelevant today.
    - mattmaroon 18y ago
      Are they? I mean, they're giving you more choice for sure, but I don't see any PCs sold without them. People still make their decisions largely based on OS.
  - marvin 18y ago
    "Flying cars" will never be created, the same way a road-running sailboat will never be created. But we could probably build an aircraft today that would serve most of the purposes a car does.
    - deleted 18y ago
      [deleted]
    - mattmaroon 18y ago
      That was exactly my point. We could, but we won't and we probably won't in another 50 years. Technology is held back by all sorts of stuff.
  - ks 18y ago
    I remember reading articles in the 80s saying just that... I'm also looking forward to booking a hotel in the moon colony in a couple of years. It's not that it is impossible. We could have flying cars and moon tourists any time we want, but the cost is much greater than the benefits.

kajecounterhack 18y ago

It doesn't take Bill Gates to say things will move forward. Companies will continue to find things people want, and people will continue to buy things they want. The end. Move on, nothing to see here.

rainface 18y ago

Isn't it about time Gates restrains himself from publicizing predictions?

Anon84 18y ago

Isn't this roughly what he's been saying since his 1999 book?

extension 18y ago

Bill Gates predicts sun will rise tomorrow with an embedded touch screen