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I really love Julia Galef's take on this in the book "The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't". It's not quite humility, but it's

I really love Julia Galef's take on this in the book "The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't". It's not quite humility, but it's close. Instead of trying to win arguments, try to find out what's true. Be humble in what you know and don't know. Every once and a while try to calibrate your confidence. [0] [0] http://confidence.success-equation.com/ http://confidence.success-equation.com/

jimkleiber 5y ago
Wow, I had a lot of fun with that link. Especially seeing the ones I got wrong with high confidence. Love it, thanks for sharing.
aspenmayer 5y ago
That’s a neat concept for a site. A bit Australia specific for some of the trivia, but that likely doesn’t matter, because you aren’t penalized in any way for getting questions wrong. It’s a way of showing your own bias in your own confidence. Is there more info about this site and what it’s intended audience and goals are?
- GlennS 5y ago
  Interesting bias there - I would have said it was a bit US specific? Maybe it's just a bit English-speaking specific?
  - aspenmayer 5y ago
    Definitely English-speaking specific. I was honestly just surprised it didn’t have an obvious US bias.
Jensson 5y ago
> Every once and a while try to calibrate your confidence. [0] How is that hard? Got 100% correct on my 100% guesses. 70% correct on my 60-70% guesses and about 50% on the 50% ones. Don't people do this naturally? It is so easy to know when you are sure, when you know it is probably right and when you have no idea at all.
- crabmusket 5y ago
  Do you write down your guesses, confidence levels and revisit these when something changes or comes to light? I'm genuinely curious how you keep track of this and how it fits into your day. EDIT: oh I think I missed that this was specifically referring to the link. I read it as a general comment about calibrating confidence through one's life!
- jimkleiber 5y ago
  You've never been sure of something only to find out you weren't correct on it? I think I generally have a sense of how confident I am and yet I know I sometimes overshoot because I'm overlooking a detail or incorrectly remembering something.
  - Jensson 5y ago
    > You've never been sure of something only to find out you weren't correct on it? A 99.9% confidence statement is still wrong 0.1% of the time. If you make one such a day then you ought to be wrong about it once per three years. I don't see that as a problem, of course I get surprised when it happens since it is rare but there isn't much more to it. And there are even higher levels than 99.9%, many things you are basically never wrong about so we can't find the error bar. Edit: I think it is good to compare your confidence in a thing to other things. Are you really as confident in this statement as you are in the layman interpretation of 1 + 1 = 2 (ie if you take 1 apple, add 1 apple now you have 2 apples)? Then you can say 100%. But most things are way below that level.
    - jimkleiber 5y ago
      I appreciate that clarification, and yea, with the link I didn't link that I had to choose 100% confident because I would much prefer what you said at 99% or 99.9% confident. I also like what you said about how it brings a surprise because it may be so rare. Thanks for this!
      - Jensson 5y ago

jimkleiber 5y ago

Wow, I had a lot of fun with that link. Especially seeing the ones I got wrong with high confidence. Love it, thanks for sharing.

aspenmayer 5y ago

That’s a neat concept for a site. A bit Australia specific for some of the trivia, but that likely doesn’t matter, because you aren’t penalized in any way for getting questions wrong. It’s a way of showing your own bias in your own confidence. Is there more info about this site and what it’s intended audience and goals are?

GlennS 5y ago
Interesting bias there - I would have said it was a bit US specific? Maybe it's just a bit English-speaking specific?
- aspenmayer 5y ago
  Definitely English-speaking specific. I was honestly just surprised it didn’t have an obvious US bias.

Jensson 5y ago

> Every once and a while try to calibrate your confidence. [0] How is that hard? Got 100% correct on my 100% guesses. 70% correct on my 60-70% guesses and about 50% on the 50% ones. Don't people do this naturally? It is so easy to know when you are sure, when you know it is probably right and when you have no idea at all.

crabmusket 5y ago
Do you write down your guesses, confidence levels and revisit these when something changes or comes to light? I'm genuinely curious how you keep track of this and how it fits into your day. EDIT: oh I think I missed that this was specifically referring to the link. I read it as a general comment about calibrating confidence through one's life!
jimkleiber 5y ago
You've never been sure of something only to find out you weren't correct on it? I think I generally have a sense of how confident I am and yet I know I sometimes overshoot because I'm overlooking a detail or incorrectly remembering something.
- Jensson 5y ago
  > You've never been sure of something only to find out you weren't correct on it? A 99.9% confidence statement is still wrong 0.1% of the time. If you make one such a day then you ought to be wrong about it once per three years. I don't see that as a problem, of course I get surprised when it happens since it is rare but there isn't much more to it. And there are even higher levels than 99.9%, many things you are basically never wrong about so we can't find the error bar. Edit: I think it is good to compare your confidence in a thing to other things. Are you really as confident in this statement as you are in the layman interpretation of 1 + 1 = 2 (ie if you take 1 apple, add 1 apple now you have 2 apples)? Then you can say 100%. But most things are way below that level.
  - jimkleiber 5y ago
    I appreciate that clarification, and yea, with the link I didn't link that I had to choose 100% confident because I would much prefer what you said at 99% or 99.9% confident. I also like what you said about how it brings a surprise because it may be so rare. Thanks for this!
    - Jensson 5y ago