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Note this article is about world food prices, not the United States food prices. > Debt to GDP is 130% and structurally basically guaranteed to nominally incre

Note this article is about world food prices, not the United States food prices. > Debt to GDP is 130% and structurally basically guaranteed to nominally increase over the next 10 years Debt to GDP has actually been declining since Q2 2020 and sits at ~125%. There is nothing that says increases are inevitable. > CPI for energy is 25% percent right now. Yes and it was at negative 17% for April of last year and stayed negative for the whole rest of the year. Were you worried about deflation at the time? If instead of spooking yourself with rates of change, you switch your graph to Average price data and look at Gasoline, you'll see that we're still below 2014 levels. > The inflation writing is on the wall. Why don't we look at US food price staples? Eggs are nowhere near their 2015 high: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111 Milk has yet to reach 2014 levels: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000709112 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000709112 Sugar has yet to reach 2012 levels: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000715211 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000715211 Pork chops spiked up hugely, almost back to 2014 levels! They're going back down now. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000FD3101 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000FD3101 Chicken too spiked higher (than ever before this time), and is now back at 2014 levels: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000706111 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000706111 Rice is still lower than it was during the 2008 recession: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000701312 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000701312 Ground beef is the only one that's surpassed 2014 levels: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112

anm89 5y ago
Time will tell.
WalterBright 5y ago
> There is nothing that says increases are inevitable. Several trillion dollars in new spending proposals make it inevitable.
- ncallaway 5y ago
  Most of those several trillion dollars of spending proposals are spread out across several to the 10 years, and many of those proposals are paired with revenue increases that will offset the spending costs. So, no, the existence of spending proposals absolutely does not make it inevitable.
  - twofornone 5y ago
    Have we not printed 1-3 trillion dollars in the last two years? Like, a substantial proportion of all circulating dollars? How does that not immediately devalue the dollar?
    - mattnewton 5y ago
      Disclaimer, I am not an economist and don't know what I am talking about. But, the birds eye view formula from my macro classes is MV = PY, where M is the money supply, v the velocity of money, P prices, Y real GDP. GDP is usually going up, we have more people (and we hope they are each more productive). So that means that either the money supply or velocity must go up, or prices go down (deflation). Velocity is fickle and probably interrelated with consumer expectations around P (if you think things are going deflate for one thing, you might wait longer to make a purchase hoping to pay less in nominal terms, and this has the effect of shrinking MV even more relative to PY). Since V is hard to control directly, in practice M has to increase regularly to prevent deflation. What we saw with the pandemic was large decreases in V and unexpectedly small decreases in Y. The fed increased M and it absorbed this differential. My understanding though is that the inflation doomers think the drop in V was transitory and now we'll see a sudden spike in all that money being unlocked and circulating
      - typ 5y ago
        I assume that inflation (CPI) can be reflected by the increase of money supply only when people can't find a way to transfer the money to somewhere inflation-proof and can only spend it on consumer goods. That's absolutely not the case in modern days. Look at the housing price, that's where the money's gone.
roenxi 5y ago
I agree with the on topic point here - this food index doesn't really scream inflation (although it does scream tough times of someone). But... > Debt to GDP has actually been declining since Q2 2020 and sits at ~125%. There is nothing that says increases are inevitable. 125% debt to GDP is well into the territory where countries do not pay their debts back in real terms. The US is a democracy, it is all but infeasible that the borrowings will be meaningfully repaid in full. Although physically speaking it is possible, if the US politicians thought that was feasible then the time to act was the 2000s. It is a bit late now. They've been at emergency debt levels (literally world-war level borrowing) for a decade now. Graceful recovery from that seems unlikely given the total lack of political will to do things the straightforward earn-more-than-spend way.
- pas 5y ago
  There's nothing that makes that debt load scary, unserviceable, etc. the US can raise taxes anytime. It's simply doesn't have to. It can play the annual debt ceiling chicken game without any real impact on its ability to issue new debt.
  - ptero 5y ago
    Raising taxes beyond a certain point tends to decrease the total tax haul as those with lots of money move income to other jurisdictions and some of others work less, leaning harder on social system (further increasing the public debt).
    - pas 5y ago
      The US is very far from that.
      - ptero 5y ago
        How do you know?
        pas 5y ago
QuarterReptile 5y ago
>Debt to GDP has actually been declining since Q2 2020 and sits at ~125%. I don't understand how this argument can be made in good faith. Q2 2020 GDP was down over 9% (32.9% annualized.) That that trend was transitory is shown by the 33.4% annualized growth the following quarter. You didn't just draw a trend line from an outlier. You drew it from the single most extreme outlier in the recorded history of US GDP.

anm89 5y ago

Time will tell.

WalterBright 5y ago

> There is nothing that says increases are inevitable. Several trillion dollars in new spending proposals make it inevitable.

ncallaway 5y ago
Most of those several trillion dollars of spending proposals are spread out across several to the 10 years, and many of those proposals are paired with revenue increases that will offset the spending costs. So, no, the existence of spending proposals absolutely does not make it inevitable.
- twofornone 5y ago
  Have we not printed 1-3 trillion dollars in the last two years? Like, a substantial proportion of all circulating dollars? How does that not immediately devalue the dollar?
  - mattnewton 5y ago
    Disclaimer, I am not an economist and don't know what I am talking about. But, the birds eye view formula from my macro classes is MV = PY, where M is the money supply, v the velocity of money, P prices, Y real GDP. GDP is usually going up, we have more people (and we hope they are each more productive). So that means that either the money supply or velocity must go up, or prices go down (deflation). Velocity is fickle and probably interrelated with consumer expectations around P (if you think things are going deflate for one thing, you might wait longer to make a purchase hoping to pay less in nominal terms, and this has the effect of shrinking MV even more relative to PY). Since V is hard to control directly, in practice M has to increase regularly to prevent deflation. What we saw with the pandemic was large decreases in V and unexpectedly small decreases in Y. The fed increased M and it absorbed this differential. My understanding though is that the inflation doomers think the drop in V was transitory and now we'll see a sudden spike in all that money being unlocked and circulating
    - typ 5y ago
      I assume that inflation (CPI) can be reflected by the increase of money supply only when people can't find a way to transfer the money to somewhere inflation-proof and can only spend it on consumer goods. That's absolutely not the case in modern days. Look at the housing price, that's where the money's gone.

roenxi 5y ago

I agree with the on topic point here - this food index doesn't really scream inflation (although it does scream tough times of someone). But... > Debt to GDP has actually been declining since Q2 2020 and sits at ~125%. There is nothing that says increases are inevitable. 125% debt to GDP is well into the territory where countries do not pay their debts back in real terms. The US is a democracy, it is all but infeasible that the borrowings will be meaningfully repaid in full. Although physically speaking it is possible, if the US politicians thought that was feasible then the time to act was the 2000s. It is a bit late now. They've been at emergency debt levels (literally world-war level borrowing) for a decade now. Graceful recovery from that seems unlikely given the total lack of political will to do things the straightforward earn-more-than-spend way.

pas 5y ago
There's nothing that makes that debt load scary, unserviceable, etc. the US can raise taxes anytime. It's simply doesn't have to. It can play the annual debt ceiling chicken game without any real impact on its ability to issue new debt.
- ptero 5y ago
  Raising taxes beyond a certain point tends to decrease the total tax haul as those with lots of money move income to other jurisdictions and some of others work less, leaning harder on social system (further increasing the public debt).
  - pas 5y ago
    The US is very far from that.
    - ptero 5y ago
      How do you know?
      - pas 5y ago

QuarterReptile 5y ago

>Debt to GDP has actually been declining since Q2 2020 and sits at ~125%. I don't understand how this argument can be made in good faith. Q2 2020 GDP was down over 9% (32.9% annualized.) That that trend was transitory is shown by the 33.4% annualized growth the following quarter. You didn't just draw a trend line from an outlier. You drew it from the single most extreme outlier in the recorded history of US GDP.